A recent discussion about the stock market with a friend last week catalyzed some relevant MTG finance thoughts to flow through my mind. The friend asked me about a stock that he regretted not purchasing, after watching the ensuing outperformance of the equity. He was disgruntled for not trusting his own instincts. I tried my best to alleviate his distress by pointing out how a missed opportunity to profit is certainly not the same as an incurred loss.
Shortly after our chat I was faced with a paralleled emotion in the world of Magic, and I almost made the same reckless mistake I cautioned my friend to avoid on Wall Street. The card that triggered this reaction of mine is Scout’s Warning. Ever heard of it? Don’t worry if you haven’t – I never had either until someone mentioned it to me.
Apparently the scout assigned to alert me to random buy-outs was not on duty last week because I received no warning about the card’s movement. TCG Player sold out completely, and I could find only a few lingering copies on the oft-forgotten website Cardshark.com. In reaction to the movement, I scrambled to add about a dozen copies of the card to my shopping cart. But before I clicked “Complete Purchase” I hesitated just a moment.
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This week’s article is not a continuation of the Playing Better series (which will continue next week), but is more of an address to the various things that have come up since I started that series. This is going to be one of those grab bag style pieces that is slightly more focused than a collection of quick hits. If there is one major point to be made, however, it’s the following:
NOT EVERYTHING IS FOR EVERYBODY: We have three supplemental Magic products coming out this summer, and they are all in the form of actual sets (as opposed to pre-constructed decks or something). This is unprecedented, and has a type of psychological impact that people have largely had trouble articulating.
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Today’s piece is the second half of a set review that started here. In the previous installment we covered all the rare Lands, Artifacts, blue, and black cards. Today we are covering Green, Red, and White. The results are actually better than you would expect!
We are gonna start off with some quick acknowledgments:
I was not nearly as right about the Super Bowl as I was about the Pro Tour. Also, I was totally right about the Pro Tour. Boom, roasted.
That being said, be ready to get out of any Eldrazi cards that you don’t just want to own for the rest of your life. The difference between this deck and something that is just good is that the fundamental engine of the Eldrazi deck does something that Development just doesn’t allow any more. Nature abhors a vacuum, and WotC R&D abhors anything that subverts the fundamental structure of the game.
We are going to finish Urza’s Saga today, but I’m starting an exciting new series next week. I’m really looking forward to it, and so should you.
Antagonism: This card isn’t pushed enough to be punishing in EDH. Compare this to something like Stranglehold to get an idea of the bar it needs to clear.
Bedlam: Another instance of “printed only in Saga and 7th”. This card is actually surprisingly good, as it can represent an instant kill (assuming you have already done the hard work of getting an army in place), and can break up a lot of the gridlock in multiplayer games. As an enchantment this card is hard to get rid of, and can always be sacced and brought back with something like Starfield of Nyx. Foils are only available in the more questionable 7th Ed art, but those are somehow only $4. An interesting long-term target.
Brand: I know there are functions for this card, but it’s ultimately too narrow to have a financial impact.
Bulwark: Another red enchantment that is way too fair and not impactful enough even with the potential of multiple “triggers”. How many turns of this doing little to no damage are needed before this is good enough to be worth five mana and a slot in your deck?
Crater Hellion: Sold out on SCG, but two semi-recent printings (none available in foil) really do a lot in terms of limiting upside. Not sure whether these are sold out as an indicator of demand, or just because nobody has bothered to upload more.
BRIEF ASIDE: One of the reasons why I make sure to note that a card is sold out on StarCityGames is because SCG is on a whole other level in terms of “visibility”. There are people out there who don’t know about TCGPlayer, Cool Stuff, CardKingdom, whoever- but they know SCG. It’s not always reflective of price or any other type of factor, but it is certainly a tribute to their ability to promote to all levels of the Magic-playing populace, even outside of the more enfranchised spheres.
Visibility is a crucial factor in betting on older Magic cards.
Electryte: Cute, but not good enough to be played anywhere. Also possibly the name of a pokemon.
Fault Line: An instant speed Earthquake for just an extra R. I’d play this in Commander for sure, although there is a long list of red X spells that are as good as this or better. How often if ever is this better than Bonfire of the Damned?
Gamble: A Legacy staple that has no chance of ever fitting into modern design/development philosophy. Unlike some of the other cards we’ve liked so far (Lifeline, Yawgmoth’s Will, Tolarian Academy, etc), this is NOT on the Reserve List. According to PucaTrade, there is a little over one copy traded per week, which is actually better than I expected.
Lightning Dragon: The prerelease promo is $8 because it’s a promotional foil copy of a dragon, but the set version doesn’t have any draw in 2016. Our bad dragons now are so much better than our borderline ones were back then.
There have always been Dragon collectors in Magic, but I can’t figure out why…
Scoria Wurm: five mana for a bad 7/7 is not as flashy as it used to be.
Shivan Hellkite: The foil version from Tenth is worth a look. This is the kind of card I always liked pairing with Death Pits of Rath back in the day.
Sneak Attack: Another red Legacy staple that is not on the Reserve List. Honestly, I could see Gamble and/or Sneak Attack in a future commander product, since they are played in multiple formats and styles of archetypes.
Sulfuric Vapors: Another card that just doesn’t do enough. Also, why is every red rare an enchantment that costs 4?
Wildfire: A good card that has too many other printings.
Abundance: This card doesn’t technically win you games, but it does a lot to help you not lose games. I love the old frame and the way it makes this art look, but the Tenth Edition version is a little bit cleaner and easier to read. The foil is $30+, so there is room for the non-foils to creep up. Demand is likely only for commander, which means one copy is enough for most players.
Argothian Enchantress: The Enchantress archetype isn’t as much of a thing now as it has been in the past, but this card is often a 4x staple. I wouldn’t be aggressive in acquiring these, as Enchantress isn’t likely to surge in popularity anytime soon, but don’t pass up on a deal as these have pedigree.
Child of Gaea: There are too many other better Elementals.
Citanul Centaurs: This looks like a character that would be voiced by H Jon Benjamin. Hopefully that makes it into the Magic movie.
Citanul Hierophants: probably one of the fairest ways to generate a lot of mana in your deck. This propels you into the late game, but it doesn’t do anything else when you get there.
Exploration: Conspiracy did a lot of damage here, especially in terms of introducing foils. I love this art a lot, though.
Greater Good: This is probably the ideal green EDH enchantment. I was high on it years ago, but I don’t think I ever expected it to get as high as it is. I don’t know how many reprint outlets it has these days, and all of the printings are pretty old by now. Buy them if you need them, and pick up any deals if you see them. I don’t think these will get much cheaper, although a commander reprint will likely torpedo non-foil prices.
Greener Pastures: This card would probably cost G if it was designed today.
Hidden Herd: A bad Wild Nacatl that is slightly unreliable, especially late.
Hidden Predators: I feel slightly bad about Hidden Herd being rated poorly, but I don’t feel nearly as bad about bashing this. A total trap.
Hidden Stag: The worst of this cycle. The weird part is that the “hidden” aspect here is worse with the advent of Abrupt Decay.
Midsummer Revel: More junk. There are a lot of junk rares in this set, which discourages me from buying packs of this set.
Vernal Bloom: 7th and 8th foils are at ten, but these are certainly the most appealing non-foils. I think the foil versions are probably a little low, especially for 7th.
Angelic Chorus: Probably about right at $4. The foils from Tenth are probably underpriced at $15 looking at Abundance and some of the other cards we’ve discussed in this series.
Catastrophe: Another really good card in multiplayer that is probably close to correct in price.
Faith Healer: An interesting element that could surge alongside things like Starfield of Nyx. Definitely a long shot, and probably only good in niche, pet archetypes.
Glorious Anthem: Too many printings and not enough application to see any price movement here now.
Herald of Serra: Like Lightning Dragon, this is an under-costed version of an old card that is just not really good enough in the formats its allowed to play in. Pass.
Intrepid Hero: An underrated EDH card. Also, in this art the hero looks like a King of the Hill character.
Opal Titan: closer than Archangel, but still on the outside looking in. 2WW is a tough club to break into.
Pariah: Foils from 7th and Tenth are pretty high, which is interesting because this card seems relatively underpowered. I think demand is probably non-existent, so I would just make a note to snag foils if you see them underpriced.
Planar Birth: I love lands in graveyards more than most people, and I have no use for this card. Hard pass.
Remembrance: This card suffers by being useless in the format that would be most inclined to playing it. Too much mana anywhere else.
Worship: This actually spiked pretty recently, because unlike most of this set it has application in Modern. I don’t think it’s really playable, but I think it’s probably a big enough casual favorite that the new price of $10ish isn’t too high to slide dramatically. The “spike” was more realistically a price adjustment, because these were basically free for a long time, despite being a life-long member in the “Underworld Dreams Club of Cards Casuals Like”.
Thanks for reading! That was definitely harder to get through than I expected. I’ll see you next week!
Best,
Ross
UPDATE!!!! So the announcement of Eternal Masters doesn’t change my impressions of these cards in terms of playability, because the set doesn’t sound like it is introducing any new pieces. However, the potential for a new reprint pipeline does mean that any card that is expensive just because it is older and hard to find is likely to tank. If this set drives demand for Legacy or a yet-to-be-announced new constructed format, then it’s likely that early-identified staples actually go up in price (Force of Will, Wasteland). The safest play in terms of respecting all of the options is to target the niches- all of those 7th Edition EDH foils that we talked about, as well as waiting to see what cards don’t make the cut. EM1 can’t reprint EVERYTHING, and I expect this first version to include some casual/EDH staples (my best guess? Greater Good) to try and hedge the audience appeal. Also, there seems to already be a run on Reserve List cards (including Great Whale, which we discussed last week), but this is reactionary action that is likely to burn quite a few people. Avoid it as you would The Noid.
As MTG financiers, we see a lot of ideas thrown around for speculation targets. We have a good understanding of what kinds of events can drive prices, but my goal with this article is to streamline the vetting process for cards that we’re considering buying. This will allow us evaluate more cards more quickly, leading us to the best speculative purchases we can make. Ready?
Relevant Factors
Let’s briefly go through the relevant factors we can evaluate before buying in on a card.
Formats
What format(s) does the card see play in? Here’s a quick breakdown of how cards are impacted by particular formats:
Standard: Prices can move quickly based on players’ tournament needs, but prices are volatile and will not last, especially once rotation starts to loom.
Modern: Cards in this format just get more and more expensive. If a card is a multi-deck staple, a four-of, appears on MTG Goldfish’s format staples list, see play in other formats, is old, and/or has other contributing factors, prices can get really high. Modern Masters sets mean that every card in the format is at risk of reprint, however.
Legacy: As MTGPrice’s Travis Allen notes, Legacy is starting to drive prices less than it has in the previous five years. That doesn’t mean it can’t still make cards expensive, but it’s not as cut-and-dry as it used to be.
Vintage: A relative few number of players enjoys Vintage, but those that do have invested lots of money in the format. If a card is old or foil, there’s a chance Vintage will make it expensive, but the format isn’t widespread enough to impact the prices of most newer cards, especially non-foils.
Commander: Commander is likely the most popular casual format these days, and this allows it to drive prices on highly demanded cards. That said, as a one-of format, cards have to see play in many different archetypes to see huge spikes—one-archetype players are usually not worth much, even if they’re really good. MTGPrice’s Jason Alt does a great job focusing on the financial implications of Commander week-in, week-out.
Cube: Cube is gaining in popularity, but since not every player needs to own one, it’s really hard for Cube alone to impact a card’s price. It has the largest effect on foil prices, since they’re so much scarcer.
Print Run
A card printed in a large, fall set will have many more copies in existence than one printed in a small, follow-up set. When considering speculating on one of two cards with all other things being equal, you should pretty much always go with the one in shorter supply.
It’s important to know about additional printings, though. If you search for a card like Tasigur, the Golden Fang, you’ll see only the Fate Reforged printing, but that ignores the fact that the card was printed in an Event Deck. This additional influx in supply hurt Tasigur’s price, and if you’re considering buying or selling the card, this is useful information to know. Intro Packs are another source of additional printings for a card that might not necessarily show up when searching to see which sets a card was printed in. By contrast, things like Duel Deck and From the Vault printings will show up as separate sets, making them much easier to identify.
Print run and format demand are both relatively easy to approximate, although we should note that Magic players aren’t given enough information for us to know the exact numbers on these things. Nonetheless, some of the other factors—while no less relevant to a card’s price—are harder to identify.
Likelihood of Reprint
This is honestly just a judgment call. When you have a card from the Reserved List, the judgment call is pretty easy to make—it won’t be reprinted—but when you have something like Abrupt Decay, things get more difficult. You have to consider questions like: what products is this most likely to see a reprint in? what upcoming products would make sense to have this as an inclusion? is its set likely to be covered by the next Modern Masters? Obviously, the answers to all these questions and similar ones are highly speculative, but we have all kinds of resources to help us make educated guesses—and that’s exactly what we need to be doing.
Historical Comparisons
What similar cards have been printed in the past? How did they perform financially? Is this card better, worse, or just different from those other ones? Does it outclass them or is it outclassed by them? If it’s a reprint, how did the first printing perform?
Standard Legality
Is the card legal in Standard? For how much longer? Will it go up or down at rotation? How much is its price predicated on Standard?
These are some of the big-picture things we want to keep an eye on, but it’s getting tough to consider this in the abstract. Let’s move on to a case study.
With a Fair Trade Price as of this writing of $19.97, Ulamog has seen nearly a $5 increase in the past month. Might it still be a good buy? Let’s go down the list of the relevant factors.
Formats
Lots: Commander/Cube
Some: Standard/Modern (still being determined)
None: Legacy or Vintage (not replacing Emrakul any time soon)
Print Run
Rarity: Mythic rare
Set size: Large, fall set—the most recent, meaning one of the highest print runs of all time.
Additional printings: No supplementary product or promotional printings (except for prerelease)
Likelihood of Reprint
In a Standard-legal expansion? Very low
In a supplementary product (DD, EV, Commander, etc.)? Low
In a premium product (FTV, judge foil, etc.)? Medium
In Modern Masters 2017? Very low
In Modern Masters 2019? High
Historical Comparisons
Highest prices of original three Eldrazi: $54.98; $64.98; $69.98 (approximately three years after release)
Standard Legality
Entered Standard fall 2015; leaves spring 2017
Price tied to Standard? Very little
Expected losses from rotation? Very low
Expected gains after printing stops? High
Of course, much of the above consists of opinion, estimations, educated guesses, and wild assumptions. Nonetheless, using the above cheat sheet can help us get closer to an objective consideration of all the factors that might influence our decision to buy or sell a card.
To summarize my above bulletpoints in prose form: Ulamog will be in high demand by casual players, and we’ve seen what that kind of demand can do for Eldrazi titans in the historical comparisons. He comes from a highly opened set, but is a mythic rare with no additional printings, and a relatively small chance of being reprinted before Modern Masters 2019. As a card being impacted very little by Standard, it’s likely that Ulamog’s price won’t be affected by rotation and we can pick these up freely right now.
Let’s do one more case study before we close today.
With a Fair Trade Price of $19.40 today, Thoughtseize hasn’t exactly set the world on fire the way we expected after rotation.
Formats
Lots: Modern/Legacy/Vintage/Cube
Some: N/A
None: Standard, Commander
(Not that the card is in zero Commander decks, but one-for-one discard isn’t especially potent in the format.)
Print Run
Rarity: Rare in Lorwyn (2007) and rare in Theros (2014)
Set size: Both printings were in large, fall sets
Additional printings: No supplementary product or promotional printings
Likelihood of Reprint
In a Standard-legal expansion? Virtually nil
In a supplementary product (DD, EV, Commander, etc.)? Very low
In a premium product (FTV, judge foil, etc.)? High-ish (an eternal staple with no promos or unique premium versions seems suspect to me)
In Modern Masters 2017? Possible but unlikely
In Modern Masters 2019? A little more possible but still unlikely
Historical Comparisons
Before the Theros printing, Lorwyn Thoughtseize topped out above $75.
The current price of the original printing is $40.15, more than double the Theros version.
Standard Legality
Not legal in Standard
Price tied to Standard? N/A
Expected losses from rotation? N/A
Expected gains after printing stops? High
Everyone expected Thoughtseize to go up after rotation, but so far it has disappointed. Nonetheless, as a four-of staple in every eternal format that has only two printings (albeit at rare in large, fall sets), this is bound to gain in price eventually. Nevertheless, I’m not excited to buy today based on the plummeting buylist price of late:
Keeping an eye on that blue line will tell you when to buy—and this is more or less guaranteed to be a good spec target at some point. Keep a close eye here.
Now You Do It
I’ve shown you a couple examples, show me your breakdown of a speculation target you like in the comments. Here’s the outline:
Formats
Lots:
Some:
None:
Print Run
Rarity:
Set size:
Additional printings:
Likelihood of Reprint
In a Standard-legal expansion?
In a supplementary product (DD, EV, Commander, etc.)?
In a premium product (FTV, judge foil, etc.)?
In Modern Masters 2017?
In Modern Masters 2019?
Historical Comparisons
Past printings of this card?
Comparable cards?
Standard Legality
Entered Standard _____; leaves ______
Price tied to Standard?
Expected losses from rotation?
Expected gains after printing stops?
Pricing Trends
Retail price direction?
Buylist price direction?
Thanks for reading. Until next time!
MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY
