Monthly Archives: February 2017

Watchtower

UNLOCKED: The Watchtower 2/13/17

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By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.

First thing’s first: Congratulations to Ryan Hare, the winner of GP Pittsburgh. Ryan is a local from our group here in Buffalo that also includes a recent GP Pittsburgh winner, Alex Bianchi. Pittsburgh is a good city for Buffalo, it would seem. Ryan is one of the hardest working Magic players I know, and he deserved the success.

I have to say, Ryan’s victory isn’t the only thing that I enjoyed here. Last week I said that I didn’t expect Mardu to continue its rampage across Standard, and that Saheeli and GB decks would rise to the top again. I’ve especially liked GB for awhile, with Rishkar, Peema Renegade on my list last week, Glint-Sleeve Siphoner two weeks ago, and other staples in weeks past. In fact, I started my list this week with Rishkar at the top, until I checked last week’s article and realized I had already written about it. At this point I’m not sure what card in GB to point to. There’s room for all of the staples to grow 10 to 30 percent, like Walking Ballista, but I can hardly tell you that it’s wise to buy copies. Personal copies, perhaps. There aren’t any GB cards in my things I’m keeping an eye on this week, since I’ve covered the best ones, but keep in mind that everything in the deck is ripe for growth.

There’s no Standard cards this week because it’s not clear where to go from here. GB had an excellent weekend after a solid second-place finish at the Pro Tour, Mardu Vehicles fell dramatically in popularity, so there’s nothing there I’m comfortable pushing, and Saheeli prices are still high enough on the few rares and mythics it does run that there’s no incentive to invest. Instead, we’ll be thinking about Modern, since Modern Masters 2017 is just over four weeks away, which means spoilers are coming soon.

Inkmoth Nexus

Price Today: $20
Possible Price: $45

Inkmoth Nexus is a major player in Modern, functioning as a key component of both Infect and Affinity. It’s also popular in the considerably-less important Legacy landscape, and pops up in off-the-radar brews and casual decks as well. Inkmoth has been a constructed staple for years now, and the price has risen to $20 to reflect that. As recognition of such, there’s an Inkmoth Nexus RPTQ promo coming later this year, though that news comes by way of a leaked photo, not an official announcement.

Let me be perfectly clear: I have no idea if Inkmoth Nexus is in MM3. It may or may not be. Betting money against Wizards’ actions is a great way to hose yourself unnecessarily. As such, I’m not advocating Inkmoth Nexus as an investment today, rather, if it isn’t included in the set, I wouldn’t be surprised to see prices move as a reaction.

Move in what capacity? Well I’d say $40+ is a reasonable price tag if this doesn’t show up in Modern. That may sound high, but we’re talking about a critical 4x in two top Modern decks, with no shortage of additional demand, that only had a single full-scale printing in Mirrodin Besieged. It was in an event deck at the time, supply which is fully baked into the price today, and an upcoming RPTQ promo, which will do almost nothing to the global inventory. Grove of the Burnwillows is $40, far below its previous peak. Horizon Canopy is $60. Cavern of Souls is $50. Lands that are important in Modern can be quite expensive.

Supply on TCGPlayer is highish, with more than a page’s worth of available copies, but take note that there’s only a handful of playsets before you’re at $25, and then $30 isn’t too far off. It won’t take many people finally deciding to buy in since it seems safe to drive numbers wild.


Ad Nauseam

Price Today: $6
Possible Price: $15

Like Inkmoth Nexus, Ad Nauseam is a “if it doesn’t show up” pick. Both will get slaughtered if they’re reprinted in MM3; that goes without saying. We’re interested in figuring out what will react if it isn’t in MM3, and Ad Nauseam is a good one to keep an eye on.

The eponymous card of a long standing combo deck in Modern, Ad Nauseam has less overall demand than Inkmoth Nexus. It’s really only played in one Modern deck, but it’s a good one, and shows up in top eights fairly regularly. It does also show up in Legacy, but uh, who cares.

As for the deck itself, it’s a solid turn 3.5 strategy. The last few months it has seen a decrease in play as the format sped up, with Infect and Dredge putting intense clocks on the format, though the recent banning of Gitaxian Probe is slowing things down. Modern has been more forgiving to a wider range of strategies as a result.

Supply is on the lower side for Ad Nauseam, with less than a page of NM copies available. Without a reprint in MM3, it wouldn’t take long at all for supply to empty. Living End used to cost $15, and that’s a card without any more application potential than Ad Naus, so I see no reason why it couldn’t climb to the same point.

Worth keeping in mind as well that Lotus Bloom is in a similar situation with regards to current playability. The inventory on that guy is higher, with both its original TSP printing and also MMA, but at the same time it has wider-reaching applications with Reshape floating around, as well as the new Chord of Calling for artifacts, which would allow you to go from three mana to six or seven the following turn.

James Chillcott, MTG Fast Finance, Travis Allen

MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 54 (Feb 9/17)

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MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Feb 9, 2017

Segment 1: Top Card Spikes of the Week

Sigil of Distinction

Sigil of Distinction (SOA, Rare)
Start: $0.50
Finish: $3.50
Gain: +$3.00 (+600%)

Esper Charm (SOA, Foil Uncommon)
Start: $7.00
Finish: $30.00
Gain: +$12.00 (+325%)

Sleight of Hand (9th, Common Foil)
Start: $30.00
Finish: $95.00
Gain: +$65.00 (+215%)

Scrapheap Scrounger (KLD, Rare)
Start: $2.00
Finish: $4.50
Gain: +$2.50 (+125%)

Sinbad (ARN,UNC )
Start: $3.25
Finish: $7.00
Gain: +$3.75 (+115%)

Memory Jar (Urza’s Legacy, Foil Rare)
Start: $30.00
Finish: $60.00
Gain: +$30.00 (+100%)

Heart of Kiran (AER, Mythic)
Start: $15.00
Finish: $25.00
Gain: +$10.00 (+67%)
Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James’ Picks:

Aetherworks Marvel

  1. Aetherworks Marvel (KLD, Mythic)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $4.00 to $10.00 (+6.00/150%) 0-12+ months)

2. Kari Zev’s Expertise (AER, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $3.00 to $10.00 (+7.00/+233%, 12+ months)

3. Baral, Chief of Compliance (AER, Foil Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $8.00 (Target) to $20.00 (+12.00/+150%, 0-12+ months)

Travis’ Picks:

  1. Astral Cornucopia (BNG, Foil Rare)
  • The Call: Confidence Level 7: $2.00 to $10.00 (+8.00/+400%, 0-12+ months)

2. Crystalline Crawler (C16, Rare)

  • The Call: Confidence Level 6: $2.50 to $8.00 (+6.50/+220%, 0-12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

James & Travis reviewed the results of Pro Tour Aether Revolt and the cards to watch in the aftermath.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week

The guys touched on selling out of MTGO, recent successes with EU arbitrage and the cards they least want to be holding heading into Modern Masters 2017 previews in a few weeks.

CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Accumulated Knowledge

GAME DAY DECK TECH: Aether Revolt

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Players new and old tend to approach the concept of Magic finance as “how can I make my hobby cheaper or free?”, only to realize that most of the conversation in that sphere is between vendors. In honor of Game Day Weekend (and a month of [NEW SET] singles pouring into the market), I’m going to tell you which Standard deck I recommend for the upcoming format. This is for the people who want to play in FNM, PPTQ, and 5k level events but don’t have the time, energy, or resources to learn and buy-in to the entire format. These are not going to be “budget” decks, but a key component in my selecting them is that they are cheap enough to give you a good shot at breaking even. I’m also going to mention at the end what cards from the newest set belong in previous iterations of this series that are still Standard legal.

Standard is in a pretty strange place at the moment. Despite the fact that Saheeli combo didn’t have the dominant showing at the Pro Tour that it had at previous events, it still feels like the deck only has a few weeks left to live. Mardu Vehicles, which comprised 75% of the PT Top 8, is a powerful deck, but one that is still within the bounds of reality. Some previous archetypes (Eldrazi, Aetherworks) feel like they just haven’t been “figured out” yet, while BG has morphed into a series of varietals. Missing from the environment so far is one of competitive Magic’s proudest mainstays- Red Deck Wins. In truth, Mardu Vehicles is perhaps a more sophisticated take on this strategy, although it leans heavily on the eponymous new mechanic.

Red Deck Wins has a proud history of tournament success, stretching back to the earliest days of competitive Magic- although it has won multiple recent Pro Tours as well. The original recipe of 20 Land, 20 Creatures, and 20 Spells is somewhat present, although formats tend to skew more towards creatures or spells depending on the relative strength of the card pool available. Currently we are in a format where the creatures are better than most of the spells, so those even thirds get rearranged by necessity. Additionally, some of the better creatures and spells on curve for red pull towards black.

This is definitely a rough draft, although the beauty of RDW (and aggro, to a large degree) is that you get to highly value consistency rather than individual impact. I think a finalized list probably doesn’t have as many 4x, but it’s also possible that you just shave a few lands to add a card or two you like. While there isn’t a 15 card sideboard, Kari Zev’s Expertise is a must, as well as Transgress the Mind and Tears of Valakut. It’s also possible to cut something like the Bloodhalls to make room for a small Energy package, including the Lathnu Hellion, Harnessed Lightning, some Aether Hubs, and Glint-Sleeve Siphoner.

The point of a deck like this is to get in 20 damage as quickly as possible, which means limiting the number of dead cards in hand. Typically playing Terminate effects in these decks is a trap, but Unlicensed does 3 most of the time as well, so that makes it infinitely more viable. Additionally, the deck as is can be built VERY cheaply (because we aren’t playing Heart of Kiran!), so this is a perfect way to ease into MODO or get a quick Game Day win. We’ll talk about MODO next time. Until then, good luck at Game Day!

Best,

Ross

LOOKING BACK: I still REALLY like the RG Energy deck– I think it presents a very real threat in a way that a lot of budget-friendly decks don’t typically have access to. Obviously I like today’s new deck, but I still heartily endorse Electrostatic Pummeler. I don’t have a finalized list that I like (I’ve started to splash blue, although that raises the price tag when Spirebluff Canals get involved), but the only MUST HAVE playset from Aether Revolt so far is Invigorated Rampage. Some decks seem to prioritize Rampage over Larger than Life, both of which are basically tied for second place behind Blossoming Defense (which isn’t actually better, but protects your combo). Try some different iterations and see what you think! RG Energy might be the perfect FNM deck, especially if we see some seismic action with the second B&R announcement.

Casual Fridays

Revolting Developments

The Pro Tour is in the books, and we’ve got a very clear idea of what the metagame is: Mardu Vehicles.

Doesn’t matter that Smuggler’s Copter got the ban, it’s shifted to Heart of Kiraan and Aethersphere Harvester. We had a sprinkle of Cultivator’s Caravan as well, and lots and lots of Veteran Motorist with which to power them up.

If we’ve learned nothing else, it’s that when Wizards puts together a new card type, it’s often overpowered at first. We will keep that in mind when the next new type arrives.

But what’s good against this deck? It was built to prey on the assorted Copy Cat lists, and I approve of the metagame call. The combo is real and powerful and demands answers or you lose. The Vehicles list seeks to overpower the opponent before the combo can get online, or disrupt the combo in progress. One red mana, left open, is enough to make the Saheeli player hesitate until they have Dispel backup.

And if they hesitate on turn four, then you’re stomping face on turn five. The deck is capable of some very powerful and synergistic plays, and there’s some opportunity here.

I think Chandra, Torch of Defiance, is a good pickup at $20 or so. We’ve got another 18 months of her being Standard legal, and she’s undoubtedly powerful. If you’re burning a blocker out of the way, they have to do something to kill her, which means you’re ahead on cards or attackers.

She might not rise too high, though, looking at Gideon, Ally of Zendkiar‘s chart. He spiked sometimes, but he never stayed high for long.

I also love picking up Release the Gremlins. Vehicles are going to be a big part of the metagame for a while, and at worst this is Manic Vandal, a two-for-one. Foils are also a little more than a dollar and might really pay off in the future. I’ve already targeted these in trade.

I’m impressed at the resiliency of Rishkar, Peema Renegade. I really thought this would be dropping in price by now, and instead it’s creeping upward. If it’s $5 or so when Modern Masters 2017 comes out, down a dollar from right now, then it’s a great candidate to be pushing $10 in ten months. It’s too good at acceleration to stay low.

Toolcraft Exemplar is another card that I’m high on right now. He’s cheap at about a buck and a half, and what he offers is quite powerful. If Vehicles stays a powerful deck–and I see no reason why it wouldn’t–then this little one-drop gets in early and crews anything late. I am big on the potential here, if the deck stays good then this is the card you want at the beginning. He’s good friends with Heart of Kiraan too, attacking for three because of it and helping it attack on any other turn.

My last pick this week feels like easy money: Spire of Industry. It’s in more than one type of deck, it’s played in a lot of styles and there’s more than one played per deck. It might be one of the best lands with how common artifacts are, and I think it’s going to see a lot of play going forward.

Foils are an even better pick, since there’s at least two decks that immediately want it: Affinity and Lantern Control. Get your foils for about $12, and be ready for them to hit $20 before you know it.