All posts by Guo Heng Chin

Guo Heng started kitchen table Magic as a kid, during Urza's Destiny. He played intermittently and casually until Innistrad, where he began to grind the competitive circuit. It was then that he became hooked on the magical substance that is cardboard crack and it dawned upon him that Magic finance is a good way to subsidize his habit. Guo Heng started writing for MTGPrice in October 2014. A competitive grinder himself, he focuses on the mtgfinance of competitive Magic. Catch him on Twitter @theguoheng.
Finding Value, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: My Bets for GP Charlotte

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By: Guo Heng

So much for taking notes during last weekend’s Star City Games’s first ever Modern Invitational in Columbus. Two of the cards that were sorely undervalued upon the conclusion of the Invitational—Olivia Voldaren and Huntmaster of the Fells—spiked fast and hard over the last few days, forcing me to change my initial plan for today’s column. Instead of discussing four cards I think will emerge more expensive by this time next week, I am going to talk about two things today:

  1. Will Olivia and Huntmaster remain at their lofty new prices?
  2. My bet for the archetype that would be performing the best at Grand Prix Charlotte and the card that would spike with it.

The New Jund Overlords

One creature to rule them all.

First off, we have a new queen in Jund. Olivia Voldaren saw some play back when the deck dominated the format, in an era when Birthing Pod was legal, but she wasn’t as powerful back then as she is today in a metagame full of grindy creatures and Lingering Souls. An unanswered Olivia takes over any creature-based matchup and she is not exactly easy to answer if deployed properly (a.k.a. with 1R open to grow her toughness to four in response to Lightning Bolt).

Olivia was hovering at $6.60 when the Invitational concluded and spiked hard over the next few days to the $17.32 she is at today. Is her $17 price tag justified for a card that sees play as a two-of in the 75 of Jund and occasionally as a one-of in Grixis Twin‘s sideboard?

My answer is yes. She is a mythic from Innistrad, which was opened nearly four years ago (how time has passed!), so it’s probably about time that Olivia’s price hits double-digits as a mythic that sees Modern play. Olivia seems to be a trump card in grindy creature matchups and fits in any decks that runs BR and wants to grind out the long game.

I don’t think $17 is the ceiling for Olivia if Jund continues to perform this weekend or if Grixis Twin starts to adopt her as a sideboard mainstay. On the other hand, Olivia is at most played in twos and that limits her price ceiling. I’d say $25 is the highest she could go in best-case scenario.

The hunt is on again. We’re hunting fair decks this time.

Huntmaster of the Fells is a wholly different beast. Like Olivia, Huntmaster spiked from the $6 to $18 within days following the Invitational. Remember, Jund made top eight of both the Invitational and Modern Open. However, I don’t think Huntmaster’s price is done spiking yet.

While he was just found as a two-of in Jund’s sideboard, Huntmaster sees play in a larger variety of decks compared with Olivia. While Olivia’s role is to break open creature mirrors, Huntmaster serves as instant value in a format where removal is generally one-for-one. He is a bit like a planeswalker in the fact that he is a card that does multiple things: create board position, gains life, takes out small creatures, and domes the opponent.

While Huntmaster can be found in a variety of midrange lists that runs his colors, his current surge in price is solely driven by Jund’s recent performance.

However, I think that he has yet to hit his ceiling. Huntmaster was present as a four-of in the sideboard of a variant of an archetype that I think is very well-positioned for this weekend’s Grand Prix, which segues perfectly into the next segment:

Next-Level Delver

Check out this new take on Delver that took down a 273-player StarCityGames Modern Premier IQ in the weekend before Modern Masters 2015 weekend:

Temur Delver by Jordan Boisvert
Temur Delver by Jordan Boisvert

While Delver decks went down the Grixis route to get access to the black Tarmogoyf, Kolaghan’s Command, and efficient creature removal suites resulting in an overall better midrange game, Jordan Boisvert took Delver down a whole different road. He shifted the deck’s gear to tempo and went full speed ahead.

His version of Temur Delver plays the protect-the-queen strategy to the max. The playset of Disrupting Shoal protect your turn-one Delver of Secrets or turn two-Tarmogoyf or Hooting Mandrills. Stubborn Denial adds another three copies of an efficient counterspell to ensure the survival of your early, undercosted threats.

Instead of looking for an improved mid-to-long game capability, Boisvert’s Temur Delver just aims to deploy multiple undercosted threats within the first few turns of the game and protect them with highly efficient counterspells. Disrupting Shoal transforms card advantage into tempo, playing a similar role in Modern as with Force of Will in Legacy Temur Delver. With the most popular Modern removal spells costing one mana (Path to Exile and Lightning Bolt) and half the spells in the deck consisting of one-mana blue spells, there is no shortage of cards to pitch to Force of Will Disrupting Shoal.

Jordan Boisvert’s write-up on how he came to the list and the decks choice of cards is well worth a read. In his article, Jordan mentioned that Huntmaster of the Fells excels in any matchups against fair decks. Based on his individual matchup analysis, Huntmaster seems to be brought in post-board the majority of the time, even against aggro decks like Burn and Affinity, against Grixis Delver, and even Twin decks in anticipation of grindy post-board games.

The question now is: was the deck merely a one-hit wonder?

Adam Fronsee, impressed with Jordan’s list, brought a Delver deck that runs the same core as Jordan’s Temur Delver list (delve creatures, Disrupting Shoal, and Stubborn Denial), but contains black instead of red, which gave him access to more Delve creatures and Abrupt Decay. His list was one of the best-performing decks in the Modern portion of the Invitational. Adam Fronsee finished 12th, probably let down by his Standard showing.

Sultai Delver by Adam Fronsee.
Sultai Delver by Adam Fronsee.

It looks like the pure tempo version of Delver running the Disrupting Shoal and Stubborn Denial core may be the next direction of Delver’s evolution. It’s hard for Delver to play the midrange game with Jund and Abzan doing it much better. The addition of powerful Delve creatures like Tasigur, the Golden Fang and Hooting Mandrills gave Delver more options for undercosted creatures, improving the archetype’s tempo game.

The Modern Force of Will, Finally?

Should Delver move towards a tempo-centric build, Disrupting Shoal would be the card that stands to gain the most price-wise.

Disrupting Shoal Price
Finally fulfilling its destiny as Modern’s Force of Will?

Disrupting Shoal is not the Force of Will that Modern needs, but the Force of Will that Modern deserves. Having dodged reprint in both Modern Masters, the supply of Disrupting Shoal is dangerously low. I dare not even posit its ceiling shall Delver decks move towards the Boisvert’s tempo core that runs a full four Shoals. After a spike in January 2014 due to Travis Woo’s ephemeral Ninja Bear Delver, it is now back down to $6. I think it is a safe bet to buy in a this price, or at least pick up your own playset if you ever intend on playing Delver in Modern.

Delver for Charlotte

One of the reason why I am bullish on cards related to new Delver tech is that Delver, be it Grixis, Temur, or Sultai, seems to be in a good position for Grand Prix Charlotte, assuming the metagame shifts in response to last week’s Star City Games Invitational and Modern Open results.

At level zero, we could expect more Green-Red Tron decks, seeing that Green-Red Tron took down both the Invitational and Modern Open. Delver decks have a great matchup against any deck that attempts to resolve seven- and eight-mana spells. Temur and Sultai Delver probably just eat Tron for breakfast with their slew of undercosted threats that survive Pyroclasm.

The Tron decks would probably eat up the fairest-of-the-fair Jund and Abzan decks. While Delver can handle Jund, Abzan is an atrocious matchup, so having to face less of those decks improves the odds for Delver. Luckily, Abzan is falling out of favor and players are opting for Jund once again, which is good news for the tempo-oriented Delver builds: no more Path to Exile and Siege Rhino, the best answers to Delver’s undercosted fatties. Abrupt Decay is plain useless against Delve creatures.

At level one, we can expect more Twin and Infect, two natural predators of the Tron decks that can scarcely interact with them in game one. Delver has a favorable matchup against both these decks, as Boisvert explained in his write-up.

Based on the above, I think there is a good chance we will see at least one Delver deck finally make top eight of a large event in the post-Treasure Cruise-and-Pod landscape. It’s hard to predict which build would be the one to make it all the way, but after watching Boisvert’s Temur Delver demolish the popular Grixis Delver in Jeff Hoogland and Mat Bimonte’s Crash Test series, I think the tempo-based Delver decks running Disrupting Shoal stand a better chance. After all, if Delver decks are king at the Grand Prix, the Delver that eats other Delvers would be emperor.

Thanks for reading today. Do share your thoughts and predictions for Grand Prix Charlotte in the comments section below or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.

 

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The Chiba Report

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By Guo Heng

First off, let me apologise for being missing for the past week-and-a-half. I was at Tokyo and Chiba for a week for the Modern Masters 2015 weekend and I had something urgent to sort out when I got back home. Now that the dusts have settled, it’s time for a Grand Prix report. My fellow MTGPrice writers have covered Grand Prix Vegas in depth over the past week: Travis Allen, Jason Alt, Corbin Hosler and Douglas Johnson regaled us with their stories of their time in Vegas, Derek Madlem offered his perspective on the infamous #GoyfGate incident and Sigmund Ausfresser shared with us the lessons he learned at the Grand Prix. I figured I was probably the only MTGPrice writer who went to Chiba, so now is my turn to tell my story.

The Largest Grand Prix in Asia

Chiba Players

Unsurprisingly, Grand Prix Chiba turned out to be the largest Grand Prix to ever take place in this part of the world, with 4,000 players participating. It was also probably the fastest selling Grand Prix ever. Chiba hit the 4,000 players cap within 12 hours of preregistration going live. 12 hours. Preregistration opened at around 8 pm here in Malaysia, so I was lucky enough to be able to secure my spot in the event. I’ve heard about people living in different time zones waking up to a sold-out Grand Prix Chiba preregistration. A few weeks later the organisers announced another 400-ish slots being opened up from pre-registrants who did not pay.

Exclusive & Expensive Playmats

Securing a spot in the Grand Prix was only the first part of the battle. The dismal official Grand Prix playmat featuring the ‘new’ Etched Champion art was no worthy memorabilia for the Magic event of the year. Luckily, a week before the Grand Prix, the organisers revealed three special playmats for the event on top of the sweet new art Vendilion Clique playmat that the Vegas players had a chance to get their hands on. But lo behold, those special playmats were very limited in supply, with only 300 of each sold per day and they were only available on Friday and Saturday.

Having missed out on the playmats on Friday as I arrived at Chiba at 10 am, I popped by the Makuhari Messe Convention Centre at 7.15 am on Saturday morning only to be greeted by this lovely sight:

Playmat Queue

My heart sank when I saw the line. Saturday was my last chance to not go home with a crappy playmat. I lined up nevertheless. Fortunately by the time I got to the ticket station (you line up for tickets for the special playmats, then line up to pay for and collect them at a designated playmat station before 12 pm), the Vendilion Clique and Mark Tedin’s Great Evil playmats were still available. Unfortunately, the popular playmats, the two angel-themed ones  – Johannes Voss’ Sakura Angel and Peter Mohrbacher’s Kushiel x Tokyo – were long gone.

Playmat Tickets

I was close to the end of the line and they had some extra Vendilion Clique and Tedin playmats, so they were happy to hand me two tickets of each. I’d figure the Vendilion Clique playmat may be worth something and ¥3,500 ($28) was not too shabby a price to pay for a pretty sweet mat. I was not sure about the value of the Tedin one, but heck I woke up at an ungodly hour to get to the venue, and lined up for one whole hour, I might as well get another.

Playmat Loot

Japanese Grand Prixes have a knack for offering special playmats on top of the one given out to every participant, and some of them are worth quite a bit. The Johannes Voss Sakura Angel playmat sans the ‘Grand Prix Chiba’ stamp (the limited supply ones had a ‘Grand Prix Chiba’ stamp on the bottom right) was selling at Voss’ artist booth for ¥20,000 ($161) on Friday, and ¥15,000 ($121) on Saturday. That was way beyond my budget, so I begrudgingly passed on the chance to acquire the most sought after playmat at the Grand Prix. I ended up buying Peter Mohrbacher’s mecha-anime angel playmat for ¥6,000 ($48) and I had him scribble ‘Grand Prix Chiba’ on the bottom right corner where the stamp would have been.

Mohrbacher Playmat

Were $121 and $48 insane prices for a playmat? Check out the price these angel playmats were fetching on eBay a few days after the Grand Prix:

Playmat eBay

Then again the hallowed Ugin playmat awarded to the champion of Fate Reforged‘s Game Day was fetching $80 in the week following the Game Day but is now $60 – $70. The angel playmats are in scarcer quantities compared with the Ugin playmat but on the other hand, there are likely to be more people out there who want an Ugin playmat.

Cash is King

I did not brought as much cash as I would have liked to the Grand Prix. Instead I brought a bunch of Modern holds that have appreciated in value that I intended to cash out with the vendors such as these babies I’ve held for 2 years plus:

Inkmoth 9

It turned out that the vendors at Japanese Grand Prixes were not able to buy cards from players at the venue. A vendor kindly explained something along the lines of their business license being restricted to the region in which their brick and mortar stores are based. Oh well.

I’ve always thought that Grand Prixes were great places to move cards to vendors as they are more likely to offer competitive buylist pricing with other vendors present in the venue. Plus, it is a lot easier to compare and find the best buylist price for my cards when all the biggest vendors are within 50 metres of each other.

Cash trades among players were a no-no at the Grand Prix and there were uniformed guards patrolling the tables to make sure that does not happen. As a law-abiding person in general and for the fear of being whisked away into the Japanese version of Guantanamo Bay, I dared not sell my cards to the binder traders at the trading tables.

I ended up wasting half a day to make a trip to Tokyo to transmute my Modern holds into cash to use at the Grand Prix. Two of the vendors brought mobile credit card readers but somehow my credit card refused to work on those.

Lesson learned. Cash is king at Grand Prixes. I know, it’s probably fundamental knowledge for most Grand Prix participants, let alone financier. I was trying to be a smarty pants by spending my yens on non-Magic collectibles during my stay at Tokyo and I expected to reload my cash at a Grand Prix by liquidating cards but it backfired on me. Next time I go to a Grand Prix I am going to stuff my binder with cold hard cash.

The EV of Side Events

I don’t usually join the fire-on-demand side events at the Grand Prixes I’ve attended. I tend to opt for the Super Sunday Series, or a whatever large open tournament taking place on Sunday. I missed the Super Sunday Series at Chiba as players can only register for the event on Saturday evening, during which I was in Tokyo offloading my Modern cards to refuel my yen. I couldn’t be bothered to make the hour-plus trip back to Chiba just to register for the Super Sunday Series.

So I spent Sunday morning getting in trades and hunting for deals as any self-respecting financier would do at a Grand Prix, and playing in the fire-on-demand Standard events.

The fire-on-demand side events turned out to boast an insane EV. They were eight-player single elimination events and the only prize was 12 packs of Japanese Modern Masters 2015 for the winner of each pod. The entry fee was ¥1,500 ($12) and each pack of Japanese Modern Masters 2015 was going for ¥2,000 ($16) at the Grand Prix. I assumed that I would have to make it to the finals before being able to split with my opponent. Fine, I just need to win two matches in a row and I trusted that Michael Villavicenci‘s Mardu Dragons would get the job done.

After spending the morning trading and buying cards, I signed up for my first Standard fire-on-demand queue in the afternoon. My first round opponent was running a Blue-White Control and after an intense first two games, I managed to resolve an Elspeth, Sun’s Champion and clinch the win for game three. As I was shuffling my deck in preparation for the next round, one of the remaining three players asked if I would agree to a four-way split for 12 Japanese Modern Masters 2015 packs. I said yes without hesitation and I’ve probably shook his hand harder than I should. It was basically ¥1,500, win one match and get ¥6,000 in products. That was a good enough EV to put a smile on my face for the rest of the day. I hurriedly signed up for another Standard fire-on-demand before the queues closed  (I lost that one).

Side Event Prize

It may be worth checking out the fire-on-demand side events at Grand Prixes in the future if you miss day two and are not planning to play in the Super Sunday Series. I used to ignore the fire-on-demand events at Grand Prixes assuming that their EV would be crap, and I shall not do so anymore. Chiba’s fire-on-demand side events (not last chance trials) may be a one-off thing as the payout in Japanese Modern Masters 2015 packs bumped up the EV exceptionally and I don’t have much experience playing in those side events, so if you have any experience regarding the EV of these events, do share them in the comments. I would certainly keep an eye out for these events the next time I attend a Grand Prix.

Trades & Acquisitions

I’ve had the opportunity to do quite a bit of trading and purchasing at Chiba, something I don’t usually get to do much at Grand Prixes as you’ll usually find me playing in big events on all three days. The following are a few trades and acquisitions worth writing about.

Engineered Explosives, Outpost Siege for Jace, Architect of Thought, Purphoros, God of the Forge (Japanese)

The first trade I did at Chiba was with a reader from Toronto, Muki who recognised me from my mustache.

Jace Purphoros Trade

Quite a number of traders were looking for Engineered Explosives at Chiba, probably due to the fact that it was not reprinted in Modern Masters 2015. I was bullish on the long-term prospect of Purphoros, God of the Forge in an article on the Theros gods I wrote a while back and I think that Jace, Architect of Thought has a lot of potential in Modern and $3 is probably as low as he can go.

Engineered Explosives has the potential to appreciate in price this Modern season, as it is a Modern sideboard staple, but I was happy to trade off my extra copy for two long-term holds. The Outpost Siege was thrown in to even out the trade.

3 Geist of Saint Traft, 1 Disrupting Shoal for 2 Game Day Promo Thunderbreak Regent (Japanese), 2 Trinisphere

Geist for Dragons

I traded off my Geist of Saint Trafts as their growth was a little too sluggish for my liking and I was happy to cash out with the small profit I’ve made from them. Disrupting Shoal was recently featured as a playset in the deck that took down the StarCityGames Modern Premier IQ the week before Grand Prix Chiba and I figured the hype might push Disrupting Shoal’s price up a little.

The Game Day Promo Thunderbreak Regent is another card which I am bullish on its long-term value. The regent’s current value is buoyed by the significant amount of Standard play it is seeing and it has a good chance of becoming a casual or EDH staple as a playable dragon. Foil promo Japanese versions seems to be a good place to be for cards like these. Having just bought one for ¥3,400 ($28) from a vendor, I was quite happy to get them in trade for ¥2,700 ($22) each, considering their recent eBay sales:

Thunderbreak Regent eBay

One of the reason I got into mtgfinance is to subsidise the cost of indulging in Magic. The Trinispheres were for a funky Modern MUD brew I am toying with. Legacy and Vintage MUD had always fascinated me and I am attempting to make it work in Modern. The lack of Ancient Tomb, City of Traitors and Mox Diamond makes the deck way less explosive that I’d like it to be and from testing it is probably destined to be a tier 2.5 deck. But it’s hell of a fun to play. The trader valued his Trinispheres at StarCityGames pricing at ¥800, significantly lower than the average e of ¥1,600  – ¥1,900 that vendors were selling their Trinispheres at. Certain eternal staples are valued differently in Japan.

Bought 2 Platinum Angel (Japanese), Sculpting Steel, Nevinyrral’s Disk, Trading Post Foil

Artifacts Haul

The prices for casual staples in Japan really surprised me. Platinum Angel for just ¥400? And in Japanese? I’ll take two please (the other one was already in my MUD deck when I took this picture). I initially planned to just get one Platinum Angel for my Modern MUD brew, but I remembered reading about her in Douglas Johnson’s article a while back about the persistence of her price amidst two reprints and I decided to grab an extra. I guess I’ll save myself the trouble of swapping cards between my Modern and EDH deck. The Sculpting Steel was half the price it is going for outside Japan and I could do with one in my EDH decks. There’s nothing special about the Nevinyrral’s Disk besides saving me the trouble of finding one in Malaysia where it takes an adventure to locate and buy old cards. Trading Post foils at ¥300 ($2.50) seemed like a steal given its popularity in EDH and playability in Legacy MUD. I mentioned a long time ago that I am confident that foil Trading Post is a $8 – $10 card.

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon Foil (Japanese)

Foil Japanese Ugin

The biggest acquisition of the weekend and the main card I was looking to get my hands on at Chiba. Before I let for Japan, I told myself that no matter what I am going to come back with a foil Japanese Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. Since I wrote a 3,000-word piece on the future price trajectory of the dragon planeswalker, Ugin’s role in the eternal formats has all but solidified as a staple in Modern Tron and Legacy MUD and I was keen to make sure that I have a foil Japanese copy when its price is still within my budget.

The first vendor I approached turned out to have the best price for foil Japanese Ugin, the Spirit Dragon at ¥15,000 ($122). Other vendors were selling theirs for ¥19,000 ($155) to ¥20,000 ($163). I hurried back to the first vendor to grab the Ugin, which was in pristine condition for ¥15,000 ($122). Foil Japanese Ugins were going for $137 – $174 on eBay during May and even the most expensive copy in the vicinity of the Grand Prix was just slightly above eBay’s mean.

Good deals are to be had at Grand Prixes, but make sure you grab them as soon as you can, on Friday preferably if you can make it to the venue by then. I made the mistake of hesitating when I saw a foil Japanese Eye of Ugin going for a mere ¥1,200 ($10) which was cheaper than an English foil on StarCityGames and a Japanese Game Day Promo Thunderbreak Regent for ¥3,000 ($24) on Friday. When I got back on Sunday after reloading my cash in Tokyo, the cheapest Japanese Game Day Promo Thunderbreak Regent was selling for ¥3,400 ($28) and the foil Japanese Eye of Ugin bumped up to ¥2,000 ($16).

Closing Thoughts

All-in-all Grand Prix Chiba was a different experience from the few other Grand Prixes I’ve had the chance to attend. For one, the number of playmats I’ve acquired (6) far exceeds the number of Magic matches I’ve played at the Grand Prix (2). And Chiba was also the Grand Prix in which I did the most trading, buying and socialising. Shout-out to all the Malaysian players and judges who were playing and judging at the largest Grand Prix in Asia, shout-out to Nick, a reader whom which I’ve been corresponding with over Facebook regarding the event and finally managed to meet in person at the Grand Prix, and to Muki: there’s no better way to conclude a Japanese Grand Prix than chatting about Magic over Kirin and ramen.

 

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Gods Part III: The Pantheon Inside Nyx

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By: Guo Heng

Welcome to the final part of the Gods series, where we put the Theros block gods under a financial microscope and attempt to divine their fiscal potential. Part I dealt with the Therosian gods and Part II discussed the Born of the Gods deities. Today we are going to take a look at the final five from Journey into Nyx. 

One matter we could all agree on regarding the gods is that they have a lot going for them in the long-term. They are popular in EDH both as commanders and in decks, they have immense casual appeal, and are unique (a card does not get more exclusive than having a special border designed to fit the flavor of the block). All of these factors indicate rosy long-term prospects.

However, not all 15 gods were made equal and some have better potential for long-term growth than others. Let’s take a look at the final five in Journey to see which gods are worth picking up now, which ones to pick up later, and which ones to stay away from altogether.

Athreos, God of Passage

Athreos, God of Passage

Athreos, God of Passage is currently the most popular god-as-a-commander according to scoeri’s list on MTG Salvation, which compiles decklists posted or updated within the previous 365 days.

Athreos' Rank

Athreos is easy to cast and has an ability that allows for a variety of brews, from the obvious to the wonky, and he is great inside decks, as well. On top of that, Athreos is one of the few gods that is legal in Tiny Leaders, and is probably the best god-leader in the format (Thassa just couldn’t cut it).

However at $10.59 with a 53 percent spread, Athreos is not a good pick-up target today. Unplayed in Standard, Athreos’s price seems to be propped up by EDH and casual demand coupled with his scarcity as a small, third-set mythic. It’s probably best to wait for rotation to see if Athreos tanks before picking him up. Athreos does not see any competitive eternal format play, so it is unlikely that he would retain his current price come rotation. Same goes for his foils, which are currently priced at $29.43.

I don’t know if there is a market for cards with humorous names, but the German version of Athreos has name that is likely to be the butt of adolescent humor for years to come.

athreosgerman

Iroas, God of Victory

Iroas, God of Victory Price

One of the cheaper god among the Journey into Nyx pantheon, Iroas, God of Victory fits more as one-of-the-99 in an EDH deck rather than being at the helm of the the deck. His ability is unassuming as a commander and pales in comparison with other aggressive Boros commanders like Aurelia, the Warleader or Jor Kadeen, the Prevailer. Iroas is not a god I am keen on picking up now, at rotation, or at all.

Having said that, Iroas does have a relatively low spread of 35 percent at the moment. Like Mogis, Iroas is a solid example of casual demand propping up the price of a mythic that sees virtually no competitive play. Nevertheless, I would rather spend the money other more popular gods like Xenagos, God of Revels or Purphoros, God of the Forge.

Keranos, God of Storms

Keranos, God of Storms Price

Ah, Keranos, God of Storms. He started out at a lowly sub-$10 before storming up all the way to $18 when we realized he is really good as a one-of sideboard card in Modern Twin variants and Jeskai Control and Legacy Stoneblade, Grixis Pyromancer, and Miracles. Among all the gods in the block, Keranos is the one with the highest growth potential and ceiling due to the fact that he is an eternal sideboard staple. He may only be a one-of in the sideboard, but he is a small, third-set mythic that is extremely hard to reprint (out of something like From the Vaults: Gods).

Kerns finally dropped back under $10 late last month and is sitting at $9.18 as of writing. Although his price looks to be heading down,  I would start picking him up now, in trade or cash. Eternal staples tend not to drop much upon rotation. At most, I suspect Keranos would probably drop another $1 or $2—that is, if he continues dropping at all. On the other hand,  Keranos stands to double in price in the medium to long term. Keranos currently has a spread of 34 percent, indicating a good deal of demand for him. Another reason to pick him up right now is that Keranos may not be easy to find due to his scarcity and a possible bump in demand as the Modern season kicks in.

Kruphix, God of Horizons

Kruphix, God of Horizons Price

One line: buy into and trade for Kruphix, God of the Horizons right now. Kruphix really shouldn’t be the second-cheapest Journey into Nyx god. Kruphix is one of the most popular gods that is played as commander. She is Omnath, Locus of Mana on steroids. Granted, she is not as aggressive as Omnath, but she more than makes up for that by being nigh indestructible and giving you access to blue. It would be a shame if your Omnath leaves the board while you have a gigaton of green mana stored in the Omnath Bank. Kruphix seems like the safer mana storage option. Plus, blue gives you access to Prophet of Kruphix, which is pretty insane in a Kruphix deck as Jason E Alt (@jasonEAlt) pointed out.

At $3.90, I would not bother to wait for rotation to pick up Kruphix. I don’t think she will drop much or actually drop at all, as her price seems to be growing slowly since late January. Kruphix is another god with a high potential for long-term growth and a high ceiling. Being a mythic from a small, third set helps.

Kruphix’s foils are at $19.53 at the moment and I would wait until rotation before picking these up. There was a sharp drop in the buylist price for foil Kruphix in mid-April, and it currently has a 49 percent spread. It should be safe to wait until rotation to see if Kruphix’s foil price drops any further.

Pharika, God of Affliction

Pharika, God of Affliction Price

Pharika, God of Affliction is the only god in the Journey pantheon that is seeing Standard play at the moment (well, the only god in the whole block, actually). She is played as a one- or two-of in Sultai Megamorph, Abzan Reanimator, and the cute-but-somehow-works Chromantiflayer. She sees no play outside Standard and she is only mildly popular in EDH. Her ability is not splashy, but it allows for a lot of political wriggling in multiplayer EDH, if you are into that sort of stuff.

I would stay away from Pharika at the moment. As with most Theros block Standard staples, her price is dropping in anticipation of being relegated to the bulk box after rotation. Pick her up then. I don’t think her EDH appeal is sufficient to drive her price up anytime soon.

TL;DR

  • Wait for rotation to see if Athreos tanks any further before picking him up for long-term keeps.
  • Keranos is a good pickup right now despite the fact that he is relatively pricey. He looks set to be a multi-archetype eternal sideboard staple.
  • Casual demand for the Theros block gods is reflected in the peculiar price of Mogis and Iroas, neither of whom see any competitive play and are not exactly popular EDH cards.
  • Avoid Pharika right now if you do not wish to be afflicted with a case of badspecitis.
  • Hoover up any Kruphixes you can find. A price of $3.90 is too cheap for one of the most popular god-commanders.

That’s it for today! Share your thoughts below or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.

 

Finding Value, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Picks for the Modern Season

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By: Guo Heng

Modern Masters 2015 is out this weekend and may the odds of cracking mythics be ever in your favor if you are celebrating the set’s release with a draft, a sealed pool or a whole booster box. There is something else around the corner, albeit slightly further away, but very relevant to the Modern format.

The next PPTQ season, from 6 June to 16 August, is slated to be Modern. Hurrah Modern fans! Combined with the buzz for the format generated by Modern Masters 2015, it looks like we would be seeing an increase in demand for Modern cards soon. It has been a while since the format was under the competitive spotlight and there has been plenty of changes in the format. Which means a number of cards that could potentially spike when the Modern PPTQ season swings around.

There are a couple of cards that I think have a good chance of spiking come the Modern season as they are part of the new developments in Modern.

 

Before I go on to discuss picks, I am going to talk about a new archetype that has been making waves in the Modern metagame as two of the picks discussed below are tied to it. After all, this is a deck that is currently occupying 10% of the Magic Online metagame, tied with Abzan for the most dominant deck in the online field and has been starting to make waves in the StarCityGames Modern Premier IQ circuit.

The Rise of Grixis Delver

After Treasure Cruise sunk under the weight of the banhammer in late January, Blue-Red Delver’s grip on the Modern metagame relented. The void in the meta left by the disappearance of both Blue-Red Delver and Birthing Pod decks was filled with Abzan Midrange and Burn. Delver decks went under the radar since Pro Tour Fate Reforged (surfacing sporadically in the StarCityGames Modern Premier IQ top 8). Treasure Cruise was Delver’s answer to Abzan’s incessant card advantage, and without Treasure Cruise, Delver’s propensity to run out of gas left it once again a tier 1.5 deck.

In late March the Delver decks evolved. They adopted a new color, black, for Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Murderous Cut and Terminate. Here’s a sample Grixis Delver list, the list piloted by Nate Kahovec all the way to the finals of a recent StarCityGames Modern Premier IQ:

Nate Kahovec Grixis Delver

Murderous Cut and Terminate shored up one of the major drawback of Blue-Red Delver:  creatures with a toughness larger than three. In the old days, answering those creatures meant spending two Lightning Bolts, or a Bolt and a Snapcaster, both of which were huge setbacks in card advantage and tempo. Vapor Snag was never an ideal solution: it worked best only if you had threats on board to apply pressure. Topdecking Snags when you were behind felt miserable. Murderous Cut and Terminate were the single-card answers Delver needed and the deck felt so much better with those cards.

Tasigur on the other hand, transformed Delver decks into a whole new beast. Blue-Red Delver splashing green for Tarmogoyf was an old tech that did not really take off. I am not sure why myself as I have not tried that build of Delver due to the fact that I only have one copy of the big green monster. It is tempting to pass off Tasigur as another Goyf, but once I brought Grixis Delver out for a spin, I realized that Tasigur was on a whole new level of awesome.

A turn two Tarmogoyf is not always impressive but a turn two Tasigur is always 4/5. One of the things I really like about Grixis Delver is the deck’s ability to churn out a turn two Tasigur consistently. With the number of cantrips, fetch lands and Thought Scours, I’ve managed to resolve a turn two Tasigur more often than I had imagined. And sometimes even for just one mana, leaving you with another open mana for another cantrip, or a Delver of Secrets. I’ve had my fair share of free wins off the back of an unanswered turn two Tasigur (turn two Tasigur may not be the right choice against decks with access to Path to Exile).

Of course, resolving a mid-to-late game Tasigur is equally powerful. Buying back a Murderous Cut is backbreaking. Not to mention Tasigur is a threat you could sneak onto the board and keep up counterspell mana easily. Personally I think that the addition of Tasigur ramped up the power level of Delver decks more than the addition of Treasure Cruise. Tasigur imbued Delver decks with an explosiveness not seen before in the archetype, is a resilient threat and allows the deck to grind the mid-to-late game, which conveniently segues into our first pick:

Tasigur, the Golden Boy of Modern

Tasigur, the Golden Fang Price Graph

We are approaching peak supply for Fate Reforged as the number of DTK-DTK-FRF drafts will dwindle significantly in the face of Modern Masters 2015 drafts. Tasigur, the Golden Fang, currently at $5.71 with a spread of 39%, is probably the card from the set, and the Khans of Tarkir block to assert the most impact on the Modern metagame.

Tasigur sees more play than Siege Rhino in Modern. Tasigur is found in Abzan, Grixis Delver, Grixis Twin and even non-mainstream decks like Sultai Control and Jund. Tasigur is present in pretty much any non-combo deck that runs at least two of Tasigur’s color (in terms of color identity). Mtgtop8.com statistics shows that Tasigur is the 11th most played card in Modern, present in 22.4% of Modern decks in an average of 2.1 copies. Contrast that with Siege Rhino, who is the 53rd most played card, found in only 10.4% of Modern decks, but is of course played in 4 copies in every deck she is found in.  Siege Rhino is $4.92 and is from a large set. Tasigur is just $5.71 and is from a small(ish) set.

Granted, Siege Rhino’s price is probably propped up by her demand in Standard, where Tasigur is merely a sideboard card. Nevertheless $5.71 seems a tad bit cheap for a card that is already a multi-archetype staple in Modern. There is a distinct possibility that Tasigur will break $10 on the back of Modern play. Lots of Modern play. And some Legacy play too. I don’t think you could go wrong picking up Tasigur at his price right now, which is close to the bottom or already at the bottom.

The Modern Dragons Command

Once Dragons of Tarkir rotated in, Grixis Delver picked up Kolaghan’s Command and never looked back.

Kolaghan's Command Price Graph

Kolaghan’s Command is present in one to two copies in the 75 of Grixis Delver and Grixis Twin (Rolaund Hinajosa’s winning list from last weekend’s StarCityGames Premier IQ even ran three in its 75). It seems that any deck that have access to red and black in Modern will run Kolaghan’s Command. Kolaghan’s Command seems a little pricey at three mana for its abilities, but as we’ve seen in Vintage staple, Legacy-playable Fire/Ice, its flexibility more than makes up for its mana cost. Most of the modes in Kolaghan’s Command are relevant in Modern, and the card is downright disgusting against Affinity. It also shines in decks with Snapcaster Mage: Kolaghan’s Command to return a Snapcaster to rebuy the very same Command.

Kolaghan’s Command moved a little since last week. I am not sure what triggered Kolaghan’s Command’s recent bump in price. It could either be the increasing popularity of Mardu Dragons in Standard (which I doubt is much of a factor as they only run one copy of Kolaghan’s Command) or perhaps the card’s Modern demand is already making itself felt. Furthermore, with Dragons of Tarkir approaching peak supply I am not sure how much more Kolaghan’s Command could drop. $2.28 is pretty good buy-in for a card that looks to be a mainstay in Modern.

Jace’s Return?

No, I am not talking about the possibility of a Jace, the Mind Sculptor unban however much I wish to see it, but rather I am talking about the neutered version of Jace:

Has Jace faded from our thoughts?

I did not give much thought to Jace, Architect of Thought since he rotated out of Standard besides a forlorn yearning for my Fact or Fiction on a stick. Jace surfaced on my mind recently when Gerard Fabiano took down a StarCityGames Modern Open at the end of February with his innovative Sultai Control list (a slightly modified version took down last weekend’s Modern Premier IQ in the hands of Matthew Tickal as well). In his top 8 interview, Jace was the first card that Gerard mentioned in response to the question on cards that should see more Modern play. I forgot about Jace after the event as there was no major Modern tournament since then and the Dragons of Tarkir spoilers started streaming in.

Then a couple of weeks back I was building a Gifts Tron and I was devouring all the information I could get on the archetype. I stumbled upon a Gifts Tron video by Sam Pardee. He was experimenting with a singleton Jace, Architect of Thought in the mainboard of his Gifts Tron build. His argument for Jace caught my attention.

Sam explained that he was really really impressed with Jace in his Splinter Twin deck, which prompted him to try out Jace in Gifts Tron. He mentioned that Jace blanks Lingering Souls, shuts down one half of the Splinter Twin combo and is a way to battle Liliana of the Veil‘s hand disruption. I was excited. I thought the one-of Jace was a fluke in Gerard’s list. I trawled through Magic Online deck lists and it turns out that Splinter Twin has been running a singleton Jace in their sideboard since Abzan became the dominant deck in the Modern metagame.

Now why would a card that is found as a one-of in every list that runs him worth taking a look at?

Jace, Architect of Thought

I could not believe my eyes when I first saw Jace’s price. The once mighty Architect of Standard is going for a measly $2.86! I understand that cards drop a lot after they rotate out of Standard, but casual demand usual keeps planeswalkers from dropping too low. As long as he or she is does not have a ‘Tibalt‘ in his or her name.

Which is why I was surprised to see  a planeswalker of Jace’s caliber stooping below $5. Heck, at $2.86, the Architect of Thought is about the same price as Tibalt! Looks like the Jace vs. Vraska duel deck reprint really killed Jace’s price.

I am in no position to argue that Jace should see more play in Modern. But I am confident that a card that sees play in multiple archetypes in Modern, even if he is a singleton, should not be $2.86. I am confident he would not remain at this price when Modern season swings in and Twin, Sultai and Gifts Tron players start to look for their single Jace, Architect of Thought. Pick him up now.

That is all for today’s article. Thank you for reading and do share your thoughts and questions in the comments section below, or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.