Core sets, especially given the current Magic calendar, are in a weird place. By design, they are a spot to reprint stuff that needs reprinting, and also represent the sets with the shortest amount of time in Standard.
Core 2020 isn’t quite lackluster, but after the combination of War of the Spark into Modern Horizons, it sure feels like a letdown. Despite what you might be thinking, the set isn’t terrible in terms of total value: right now, the value of one of each of all the cards is not that different from where Core 2019 was at the same point last summer.
What I want to do today is look at how the cards from 2019 did in their Standard lifetimes, and see what applies from that set to this set, so we can decide what’s a good buy as Commander 2019 and Thrones of Eldraine previews begin to suck up our attention.
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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
If I let my personal taste as a deckbuilder completely influence what I bought, I wouldn’t be very good at my job. The longer this crazy children’s card game of ours keeps going, the more technology steps in to make our lives easier, and the more data we have to look at, the less we have to guess. Not having to guess is good, because if you had to guess the Top 5 commanders of the week, how many would you get right? If you didn’t get at least 2, including the number 1 and number 2, that’s OK but it means you should make sure to read my article every week and read the other free one I write on Coolstuffinc. If you can get all 5, I actually don’t believe you. If you get 2-4, that’s something to be proud of, but to nail all 5, you’d have to have pegged a real curveball.
Golos always looked kind of clunky even though he cheats spells into play and he went a little overlooked t first, but in terms of sheer power, Golos is hard to beat. Ramp a ton, play spells that are unreasonably expensive and cast your deck. If you “whiff” and hit a ramp spell, you’re just increasing the odds you can activate twice next turn or three times after that, so you actually can’t even really whiff. The deck was a bit under the radar but I think there’s an excellent chance a lot of the infrastructure of the deck will overlap with some other decks which means there is a lot of opportunity for staple to spike harder than normal. Let’s look at the deck in depth a bit.
I get asked a lot about commanders and I don’t generally care about their prices. They’re hard to predict and I worry more about the cards in the decks. With Yarok showing up in the 99 a lot of the time, it may be pretty easy to maintain above $10 as a mythic in a core set that people won’t open any longer than they have to. I won’t buy Yarok, but if you have other Core set 2020 or other cards less than a year old, trade aggressively because those cards are even less likely to maintain value and you’re gaining money by hemorrhaging less later. That’s my theory, anyway. Yarok and Omnath as expensive right now and Kykar is like $3 despite being in way more EDH decks than Omnath. It’s other formats that do it for Omnath and it’s other decks that do it for Yarok.
Also in the new cards is Soultender, which is basically a Conjurer’s Closet. Not every deck can run it but that’s OK because it’s in the best colors for these shenanigans. Is there any pressure on this $6 foil to go anywhere but up? ABU, for the record, is sold out at $8.
People are playing Golos as a Gates deck and while Maze’s End will never go above like $1, the prerelease foil is like $3 and the set foil is a baffling $15 on Card Kingdom. Better grab those, though, because here is all that’s left on TCG Player –
The only Near Mint is twice that. Scour your obscure sites for set foils of Maze’s End which, I can’t stress this enough, exists in the same universe as a $3 prerelease promo foil.
ABU still has these foils at $3, everyone else is selling out and TCG Player is about to sell out at $4. I think you buy a card that has basically replaced Explosive Vegetation because it’s just as good but better in Gates decks for that. I don’t know much about foils but I do understand low stock.
There really aren’t many Green decks these days that don’t want the full complement of Worldshaper, Azusa, Lotus Cobra, Wayward Swordtooth, Tireless Tracker and Oracle of Mul Daya. I don’t see any of those cards going down anytime soon, especially since Oracle of Mul Daya is probably never going to get the reprint it desperately needs. The reprint risk is so high that I won’t even buy that card as part of a collection. Everything is on its way up, could Elvish Reclaimer be next? I’m not convinced, and the deck has access to Knight of the Reliquary already, but I think you jam it at least here if not in other decks. Omnath can’t play Knight of the Reliquary.
Try to buy at peak supply. Because I told you so, that’s why. I don’t get paid enough to lie, so try to buy at peak supply. Peak supply is coming soon – the Commander 2019 preview cards were distributed today and the set promises to be bonkers. People are just about ready to forget about Core Set and stop drafting it the second they don’t have to.
This says “land” card. Not basic land, land. That matters a lot and this isn’t really a ramp spell or a removal spell, it’s a both spell. Show some respect and respect how Battlebond stuff continues to climb. It’s been a year, it’s time for this to take off, but it will take more than the EDHRECast talking about it.
The foil looks a little unhealthy to me, so I’m not sure what to think.
For reference, here is the card page. I think a lot of good stuff is pretty high already. Do you need me to tell you Scroll Rack is good in this deck? Brainstorm? Sensei’s Top? Nah, you got this. Golos continues to surprise me and if it gets picked up more, expect prices to surprise both of us. I’m already a little surprised at how high Wayward Swordtooth got in such a short period of time. EDH is making me re-assess how I handle rotation, but that topic is its own article and I’ll write that later. Until next time!
SDCC brought us a fun few days of Magic news, didn’t it? Fall’s upcoming set is Throne of Eldraine, a mix between Camelot and Brothers Grimm fairy tales, including, surprisingly, faerie tails. We’ll see gingerbread men, goldilocks, some new card type that seems to be in the vein of sagas, etc. It strikes me as a cross between Lorwyn and Innistrad, in that they basically took Lorwyn’s theme and shoved it into Innistrad’s art direction and top-down design. Should be a flavorful, resonant set. That’s only one of the announcements too. There’s also been a significant shakeup in the sealed product delivery, which you’ll need to tune into @mtgfastfinance to hear discussion of (see: complaining that it’s clear as mud).
Anointed Procession
Price Today: $12 (20) Possible Price: $25 (40)
Mini update: When I wrote the following section I got my wires mixed and combined aspects of proliferate with populate. Populate only copies one token, not any of them that you wish. Anointed Procession will still be important even with this distinction, as it doubles the efficacy of both creating the token and populating the token.
What I didn’t mention in the intro is that we know the four Commander themes: morph, madness, populate, and flashback. I’m going to hit on all but flashback today, as that one feels like the most difficult to key into. We’ll start with populate, which, if you weren’t playing during our second trip to Ravnica you may not remember, creates copies of any tokens on the battlefield. Populate, copy any number of tokens. Lots of tokens. Cool beans.
If the commander deck is built around populating, you’re going to need tokens. Cards will need to generate them, and others will populate them. You’re going to be putting a lot of tokens onto the battlefield over the course of the game. If that’s the case, you really can’t do better than Doubling Season and Anointed Procession. Of the two Procession is better positioned, since the starting price is so much lower than Season.
Let’s say you make a single zombie token, and then populate. You now have two zombie tokens. Whoopdee doo. What if you’ve got Procession in play first? Now you get two zombies on the way in. Then you populate, picking both tokens, so you put two more in. But Procession triggers again, so you put four total in. Now you’ve got six total tokens, compared to the two you would have without Procession. Each time this gets more absurd too; one more populate would get you to 4 and 18, respectively. Essentially, populate as a mechanic lets Procession work overtime, since you get the bonus on the way in for the token, and also with each populate.
Procession is already in about 12k lists on EDHREC, so people have already figured this out. There will be a rush on inventory as people start finding the precons in their hands. Despite a healthy supply, nonfoils at $12 are going to drain fast once people start picking their copies up. We could see Procession climb upwards of $20 or $30 as an already impressive demand is heartily renewed. Foils at $20 are tempting too, and don’t carry the risk of reprints that the nonfoils do.
Ixidron
Price Today: $2.50 Possible Price: $6
Next on Returning Mechanic Theatre is morph. Morph’s true heyday was in Onslaught, when they printed a slew of wild cards that interact with turning creatures face up. This is in contrast to Khans of Tarkir, which brought back morph (and megamorph and manifest), but didn’t seed as many “when a creature is turned face up” mechanics. Looking through relevant cards there’s a slew of amusing options, but given that they’re from Onslaught, supply is already essentially nil. I’d love to pick Chromeshell Crab or Dream Chisel but there just aren’t any to pick. I’m going a different way then, for a card that doesn’t explicitly say “morph” on it, but plays well with the mechanic.
Ixidron is already semi-popular in the format for his ability to “wipe” the board. He doesn’t get rid of everything, of course, but he neuters your opponent’s creatures while resetting your morph abilities. His use so far is primarily in hammering your opponents. Introduction of a morph-based precon will enable the other half of his design space, which is reloading all your morph guns. Unmorph three creatures, get their payoffs, play Ixidron, turn your opponent’s boards into 2/2 tokens, and set up to unmorph your guys again. If one of them is Echo Tracer you even get to do it all again!
Short a reprint, I suspect most people tweaking the morph precon will go looking for an Ixidron copy. Supply is medium, but the two printings are Time Spiral and Commander 2014, which is to say, not recent. There’s not a major supply out there waiting to be tapped. Snagging these around $2 or $3 could set you up nicely to be looking for a $6 or $7 return in the late fall.
Grimoire of the Dead (Foil)
Price Today: $3 Possible Price: $10
Madness is the third returning mechanic, and this one is definitely the odd man out of the group. While madness is certainly a potent mechanic in constructed competitive formats, it doesn’t exactly fit with the overall essence of EDH. In a format that’s all about furiously drawing cards and building massive mana reserves, discard a card to save a few mana feels out of place. I suspect we’ll see some pretty wild madness cards then, since basically all of the existing ones are certainly underpowered relative to just about anything a typical bant deck can manage.
As a theme, madness is a two-card combo: the card with madness written on it, and the effect that lets you discard the aforementioned card. All of these strategies require enablers to function. We saw it recently with Teysa, where cards that provided a sacrifice mechanic jumped. This time we’ll see discard enablers move, which is a subset of cards I’m not sure has ever undergone scrutiny within the context of EDH. Given the relative imbalance between madness cards and their enablers, I’d expect most of the meat in the precon to be in the madness cards themselves, with WotC letting existing discard outlets do a lot of the heavy lifting.
If that’s the case, Grimoire is going to look reaaaaal tasty. In the past, you’d use Grimoire to discard something you didn’t mind in your graveyard, or an excess land you had, or whatever. Basically, you didn’t profit much off the discard, you just tried to mitigate it as best as possible in the hopes of getting paid off. Now, with madness as the key mechanic, the discard is actively great. You want to tap Grimoire. And after three triggers? Why, you get to cast Rise of the Dark realms for free. Pretty dang good!
Foils don’t really exist these days, but there’s still a smattering of non-foils left floating out there at $3. Like Ixidron and Anointed Procession, if it’s not reprinted, I expect a heavy run on existing copies through the fall and winter.
Travis Allen has been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.
Yes, we’re going to have a fall set named Thrones of Eldraine, and apparently, all the Faeries cards in existence are getting bought up. That’s the most recent news.
Two days before that, though, we got word via a product information page that the four decks will focus on mechanics, rather than tribes. That product information page has been changed, so this is unofficial, and I’m keeping that in mind as I think about what I want to buy in anticipation.
The mechanics are flashback, madness, populate, and madness. We don’t know the colors of each, which is a shame, but a little work with Scryfall and we can see where the most likely color overlaps are and go from there.
In a way, I’m really glad that Eldraine was previewed right now (instead of the plan on Saturday) because now most people are caught up on Faeries and the Commander themes aren’t as obvious now.
One caveat about my method: I’m going for the number of cards that actually have the mechanic, not popular enablers. (e.g. Burning Vengeance, one of the best reasons to be on Flashback cards, won’t be on this count)
Madness
Populate
Flashback
Morph
White
2
5
16
28
Blue
7
0
24
52
Black
24
0
20
27
Red
16
0
30
29
Green
2
2
24
36
Multicolor
1 (BR)
6 (all GW)
0
7 + 4 colorless
By these numbers, it looks like BR Madness, GW Populate, RUG Flashback, and UG Morph.
Wizards isn’t confined by this data when it comes to Commander. In fact, this probably isn’t right at all, because black is only represented once. Flashback and Morph have a significant presence in all five colors, so I fully expect something wacky there. It’s been a while since we got four-colors, and maybe we’re getting new Partner commanders? We will find out soon, but even with this basic data, there’s a few picks I’m making.
Foil Avacyn’s Judgment ($0.50): Because Madness requires a setup card (some way to discard it on demand) you’re almost always operating from behind. You really, really want some way to make up for what you’re losing, and this is one of the best X-for-1 cards out there. This feels like an excellent card to be included in the deck itself, which means I want to have some foils at my disposal.
Foil Welcome to the Fold ($1): Also at about $1, supply is a bit shallower on this one which means it’s more likely to go up. All the reasons from Avacyn’s Judgment apply here, though there’s less chance of Blue being in the Madness deck. Lower supply does mean that people have bought more of this over the years, and it’s not hard to see why. Drawback is that this card is awful when not done for its madness cost.
Foil From Under the Floorboards ($0.50): Completing the cycle here is another sub-$1 foil, and this is a backbreaker of a card if you can do it at instant speed, then it’s your turn and you untap. A shame that you can’t ambush blockers, but it’s still very good and at this price, very low risk.
Foil Dralnu, Lich Lord ($10): As of this writing, there’s no NM foils available on TCG, and only 30 foils overall. Supply on a Time Spiral foil rare was never really extensive, but EDHREC shows this as a pretty unpopular card. I’m leery of it too, but when the decks are spoiled, and the Flashback deck is at least Dimir colors, this will go up just because it has the word on it. It’ll come back down in price pretty quick as people realize the inherent drawbacks, but I’m just trying to keep you ahead of the trend.
Mind over Matter ($20): This is easy money. First of all, it’s a Reserved List card, so it’s pretty unlikely to go down in value. Second, it’s a combo enabler all over the place. It’s an instant kill with Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind, and there’s a bunch of creatures that let you draw your whole deck with this out. Third, it’s awesome for Madness (because you discard) and Flashback (because you discard) at instant speed with zero mana invested. Just a little attention and this will go through the roof. Doubling up seems like a safe bet, but it might go all the way to $60 depending on the Commanders and cards that get revealed.
Foil Deathmist Raptor ($4): There aren’t a lot of value engines in a Morph deck, but a lot of them are in green. It’s nigh impossible not to get this back over and over again, and while we don’t know for sure what the colors are for the decks, this is a mythic from a smaller-run set and is unlikely to lose value over time. If the morph deck has green, this will jump to $10, perhaps $15, and you want to be able to sell into that hype.
Foil Ixidron (Now about $20): This was a lot less a week ago. Don’t buy into it now. It’s got a long history of being one of the most annoying cards at the Commander table, since it turns off almost every other creature. If the Morph deck is blue, this will be in the deck but there’s no profit to be made buying in at $20.
Foil Mischievous Quanar ($6): This hasn’t spiked yet, and that’s good for us. It requires a ton of mana but it’s a reusable effect and is a lot of fun. This is an old-border foil, supply is low, and it’s already in the Commander decks that want to do the copying thing.
Foil Obscuring Aether ($0.75): If you think the Morph deck is green, this is a great pickup. Three mana for a 2/2 always feels a little bad, and this enables turn two Morph plays.
Foil Weaver of Lies ($2): the buyout has begun on this card, but if you get in soon, you’ll find some NM foils still around. Again, this presumes the deck is blue, but there’s not a lot of ways to turn creatures face down and re-use their abilities.
Foil Mastery of the Unseen ($1): It’s white, but manifest and morph play well together.
Foil Secret Plans ($0.50): If you’re willing to bet on UG in the Morph deck, there’s nothing you want more. I’m not comfortable going that far, but this is going to hit $5 if the Commander is the right colors.
Foil Olivia, Mobilized for War ($5): BR seems like a pretty safe bet for the Madness deck, and Olivia v.2 gives a pretty great way to discard for value. Note that it’s any creature coming into play, so a token will trigger her ability.
Pack Rat ($2/$5): I’m in on the foil if you can, but if this isn’t in the Madness deck it’s going to pop. There’s generations of players who don’t know how absurd this card is, and perhaps it’s your turn to show them.
Skirge Familiar ($3): There’s no foils of this available, and the cost is pretty high at five mana. This enables a few different combos, and is a potential reprint in the Commander deck, but I will keep a close eye on this.
Tortured Existence ($1.50): If you’ve never seen this card loop things you hate to see looped, well, you’re in for it now. The problem is that if it’s reprinted, there’s no foils of this. Also, it requires the madness card to be a creature card. I wouldn’t get a ton, given those constraints.
Foil Altar of the Lost ($0.35): No matter the colors of the deck, this will see consideration if the deck is this focused. Plus it’s super cheap, a trait that always makes me feel better about a spec.
Foil Increasing Confusion ($3): This is already three bucks because people love mill strategies, and this is a neat flashback card too. Increasing Ambition is too costly for my taste, and the rest of the cycle is underpowered.
Foil Metallurgic Summonings ($5): If the flashback deck is spells-based, as seems likely, this is one of the best ways to get amazing value from spells you’re playing. Note it cards about converted mana cost, not what you paid, so Lingering Souls when flashed back would get you a 3/3.
Foil Secrets of the Dead ($5): This is already a $5 foil because there’s a lot of ways to enable it, and it’s a very strong candidate to be in a Flashback-based deck. I expect the foil to double, and if the card isn’t in the set, the nonfoil will go from fifty cents up to a couple dollars.
Foil Budoka Gardener ($8): Populate makes one copy of a token. I won’t be shocked to see a spell that has multiple instances of Populate on it, but we want to have big creature tokens for it to copy. This card is absurd early and late, and if it isn’t in the deck, the nonfoil could pop a bit too.
Foil Oviya Pashiri, Sage Lifecrafter ($1.50): Again, she’s good early and late, and I mostly prefer for the X/X tokens to be static rather than constantly changing. (e.g. Voice of Resurgence’s token)
FTV: Lore Phyrexian Processor ($2): Yes, it’s ugly FTV foiling but this is the only foil version available. There’s a lot of risk in a card like this (Unless you’re clever and have Trostani or Angelic Chorus out) but if you’re looking for big tokens, this’ll get you there.
Foil Wurmcalling ($2): Finally, a card near and dear to my own heart. It’s overcosted as compared to other X-sized token spells like the one-shot Slime Molding, but it’s repeatable and requires a counterspell to be dealt with permanently.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
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