Normally at a GP between rounds, I’m searching for trades or looking for an EDH game. This time, I was chasing down vendors and trying to find out everything I could. What I found out was a lot more than what’s hot or not, and this was one of the first indicators of how 93/94 is really affecting the market for older cards. I’d hardly heard of the format at this point!
Every once in a while, I like to go back and review a basic concept of Magic finance. In this case, it’s the terrible value of a single pack. It is something I don’t always succeed at, especially when there’s foreign packs dripping with potential value.
For example, there was a card shop in New York I went to once, they had Japanese Shadowmoor packs. Only five of them left, and I bought them all to find the foil rare of…Stenchskipper. Yeah. Be envious.
The philosophy here is valid, and comes with its own built-in proof: When I wrote this, the card Kolaghan’s Command was at $2/$6 for a foil, and if you’d bought in then (I picked up a few foils) then you’re up to $14/$30.
Not everything on that list has the same growth potential, but foil Rending Volley is still a great pickup right now, especially as anti-Twin tech in Modern. Kills Deceiver Exarch, Pestermite, even Restoration Angel if that variation is around. Can’t be countered and Spellskiteis useless against it.
By far, my favorite piece ever. I’m going to struggle with a lot of these questions over my daughters’ entire lives.
How much of my enjoyment of the game comes from being the accepted gender and race? Will I want to play less when I notice how many men spend less time casting spells and more time ogling them?
It is also the least financially relevant piece I’ve written for this site, as there’s no buy or sell advice within.
This piece spawned an interesting set of thoughts and comments on Reddit, and it has a lively set of examples in the comments.
One thing I want to make clear about my use of Hero’s Downfall as an example: if someone wants a card that will be rotating, trade it away at its current value. But when someone tries to push that card onto you, especially if it is not what you’re asking for, that’s when you should be leery.
The premise is simple: what to do if you open an Expeditions in Battle for Zendikar? How do you treat it? Keep it? Sell it? There’s a lot of potential options and all of them have advantages.
The new set of Expeditions, if the spoilers are to be believed, will have the most fascinating mix of very expensive and very cheap promo editions. It’ll be interesting to watch.
Finally, this is a piece that I thought a lot about. How were so many of us so wrong? What lessons are here that we can learn from, in order to be ready for the next time a standard card approaches $80?
A lot of predictions were very right about the set. But the one we missed most on, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, offered the greatest financial windfall and that’s what I looked at.
I hope you enjoyed my year of writing, as well as this selection of highlights!
2015 was a wacky year for this Children’s card game. Jobs were gained and lost, cards were leaked, tournaments were won, Vegas happened and what happened in Vegas needs to stay there for the most part. 2016 will be full of diaper changes and a lack of a core set and leaks being severely punished. It’s hard to know for sure what the future will hold, so the gang takes a look back at 2015 and what it all meant.
Cease and Desist?
Leakers PUNISHED
2015 retrospective
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So how about that Steam sale, huh? I’m actually just an extreme casual when it comes to games that aren’t Magic, Fire Emblem, League of Legends, or Pokémon, and this is the first time I’ve actually been bothered to download a game on Steam. I’m a fan of tactics and turn-based strategy at heart, so my friend convinced me to download XCOM: Enemy Unknown for $7.50 to relive some of my favorite single-player gaming over the past few years.
If you’ve been around the videogaming world for at least a little while (99 percent of you reading this, probably), then you’ve heard of the term “region locking” before. For those of you who keep to the card and board games, imagine you couldn’t use any of your Japanese foils in your Legacy deck. No Italian Legends cards, and no French copies of Delay. Bear with me; I know I write an article about Magic finance and not videogaming, but I’m going somewhere with this.
(Thankfully, this is just a random screenshot I found. My XCOM was downloaded with no problems.)
While we don’t have this specific problem as Magic players, it would certainly be frustrating to be restricted from content that you bought, traded for, or were gifted due to a company’s desire to prevent imports or force certain purchasing channels. In fact, you might feel similarly to someone who owns some Legacy staples, yet lives in an area where it’s nearly impossible to get rid of them at full value, when you were told something like, “Legacy cards will always get you a premium if you’re trying to trade into Standard or Modern.”
Cartel Finance
Recently, my fellow MTGPrice writers Jim Casale, Jeremy Aaranson, Travis Allen, and I (and soon to include our friend Sigmund Ausfresser) started up a video podcast on a whim. One of the topics that we touched on this past week was how much our experiences differ depending on where you’re located in the U.S. (or outside it entirely).
While I’ve always advocated “buy cards from other players at buylist values when they need to sell,” that logic is not always feasible for people like Jim, who is “region locked” in his MTG finance efforts (see? I made the segue work) by living within driving distance of Cool Stuff, Inc. When the players near Jim need to sell cards, they’re flanked by multiple LGSs that are ready to compete with each other and pay competitive buylist prices. If I had to relocate down to the land of terrible one-liners and Florida Man, there’s no question that my number of collections bought and singles sold would drastically decrease.
Since I live in upstate New York and five hours away from NYC, the area is devoid of any human interaction large-scale LGS like ChannelFireball or SCG. The closest huge competitive buylist I have to compete with is either down in NYC, or Face to Face Games in Canada (the downside of this is that we get maybe one SCG Open every three years, but hey, give and take). Players could also drive 45 minutes to Syracuse and sell cards to one of the several card stores in the city, but the number of cards they’re willing to buy and amount of cash offered are both on the short side.
I mentioned earlier that you might be in a situation where you have Legacy staples, but are unable to trade them. Jim picked up two dual lands a couple of years ago, supposedly the “impossible to lose” investment in Magic. Unfortunately, crocodiles don’t play Legacy, so Jim ended up selling the duals to a store instead of being able to trade or sell them to a player for a premium toward Standard or Modern staples. That’s a story that initially confused someone like me, who has almost never left the northeastern part of the United States: “Inability to trade Legacy staples? That’s just unheard of! We have one of the more vibrant Legacy player bases in the U.S!”
Before you trade those shock lands for that Lion’s Eye Diamond just because it’s on the Reserved List, know the routes for moving the LED if the Legacy scene around you is nonexistent.
Story Time
This doesn’t hold true for just Legacy, though. Let’s say this new MTG financier Jason is trying to make a bit of extra cash while having fun speculating and trading. He doesn’t have a store on TCGplayer or eBay, he just buys and sells locally, trying to trade up and sustain his hobby. Almost everyone at his LGS is a Standard or Commander player, because there’s a very limited number of people who can afford a Modern deck in his area. FNM is always Standard or Draft, and there are a couple of Commander pods that meet up twice a week.
Jason is trying to get into MTG finance a bit more heavily. He follows people on Twitter, listens to podcasts, and reads articles. He sees a lot of people agreeing that Modern Masters 2015 staples are a pretty smart pickup right now (hint-hint: they are). Jason starts targeting the scattered Modern pieces out of his friends’ binders, trading away the dirt cheap Battle for Zendikar rares and mythics. He picks up a couple of Cryptic Commands at $25 in trade, Spellskite at $23, and Remand at $5.
If we jump inside our time machine and skip a few months into the future, Jason’s trades have theoretically paid off. His Cryptics are $35, Spellskites are $30, and Remands are $8. But (you probably see where I’m going with this) who is he going to trade or sell them to? If his entire playgroup focuses on Standard and Limited, Jason has to either start using eBay, TCGplayer, or PucaTrade, or convince everyone to play Modern after all of the cards they need are more expensive. Granted, a lot of you reading this probably think, “Well, Puca/TCG/eBay is simple and effective,” and I would agree with you. However, not everyone is looking to constantly send cards through the mail, and there are still players who don’t trust PucaTrade due to bad personal experiences from trades in the past.
I sort of went in a different direction than I was planning when I laid out this whole “region locking” theme for the article, but I’m hoping that I still managed to explain my point. The tips that are given out every week in the constant stream of MTG finance news are not universal, and should be adapted depending on what your playgroup and LGS focus on. Legacy still has a bastion of players in the Northeast of the United States, but it’s a waste trying to trade a Wastelandwhere Jim lives. If you drive a few hours to buy a solid collection of EDH staples when your LGS is firmly steadfast in 60-card territory, it might be time to adapt and learn how to use internet outlets like Puca, TCGplayer, or eBay instead of letting the stuff rot in your binder. Even if you personally are “region locked” from collection buying because you have to compete with several other stores or local names, there are multiple different strategies to either compete or coexist with them.
End Step
Sell Painful Truths for $8 to $10 a playset on Facebook. This is a perfect example of a bulk rare that I’m happy to take the 1000-percent increase on, then ride away into the sunset with my Subway meal paid for by each playset that I sell.
Stoneforge Mystic continues to rise in anticipation of an unbanning. Do what I did and sell your copies into the hype on TCGplayer. Don’t do what I did, and don’t accidentally list two of your SP copies for $14 instead of $24, because then they’ll sell instantly and you’ll realize your mistake too late.
While Magic prices are basically on ice while everyone is on holiday, I thought it would be a good time to wrap up the year and point out some of the highs and lows of the past year of Magic.
HITS!
Definitely a hit. Dragons of Tarkir is hands down the best spring set we have had the pleasure of opening since New Phyrexia. This set was initially viewed as a casual player’s paradise and a bust for competitive players but we can see now that looks continue to be deceiving.
These 5 commands were a big hit. Although Silumgar’s Command was definitely the worst, the rest of the command cycle were a great investment if you bought in at the right time. Kolaghan’s Command and Atarka’s Command are definitely the most surprising with their huge amount of Modern play.
The cycle of Dragonlords will continue to be movers and shakers in casual formats. The popularity of Dragonlord Ojutai and Dragonlord Atarka in Standard caused them to be hugely successful pickups if you got in early. I am sure anyone that you told during spoiler season that 5, 6 and 7 mana gold legendary dragons would be top tier Standard cards you would have been laughed out of the room.
Currently a box of Dragons of Tarkir has on average more value than every spring set in the last 6 years except Rise of the Eldrazi, Avacyn Restored, and New Phyrexia. That’s pretty good company to be in. While some Standard-only cards will lose value over time, there are plenty of rares and mythics that will retain value compared to previous spring sets.
Zendikar Expeditions is a touchy subject. In fact, I’ve included it as both a hit and a miss. For now, hold your need to close the article and hear me out. Zendikar Expeditions was a great promotion. It was totally unexpected and a great way to make the land plane special. The art on most of them is quite good and despite the dissenting opinions on the border they did a good job making them very unique. These are likely blue chip stocks of the near future of Magic. I’d even wager they’re a better place to “park” money than Legacy staples and sealed product. I also feel like they did a great job making sure they are obtainable while not completely obliterating their value.
Ok this might seem like a little bit of a cop out but this is also in the misses column. But let’s be positive here, Modern Masters 2015 did some good things. First of all, supply wasn’t as big of an issue. The raise in the MSRP of the packs meant you were able to find some reasonably priced booster boxes around release. The anticipation of reprints also caused some cards to really fall off despite not being printed again. There was a great opportunity to act once the fake MM15 list was spoiled to pick up cards like Goblin Guide. Right now, Modern Masters 2015 supply still hasn’t dried up but it will by Modern season next year. Now is the perfect time to get into the reprinted cards. While this set also had a lot less “value” cards, it didn’t tank a ton of casual cards in it’s attempt to make Cranial Plating affordable. I’d call that a win since casual cards have a much harder time rebounding. Adarkar Valkyrie will never be the same.
Grand Prix Las Vegas was everything anyone could hope for and more. Remember those expensive entry fees? Some how Channel Fireball and Cascade Games were able to keep the price at $75 for $60 worth of sealed product. This event covered all of the bases of what a fantastic Grand Prix needs:
Great selection of artists
Good value side events (not too top heavy or expensive to discourage casual players)
Enough Judges to cover events
Enough seating to allow events to fire
A well thought out and organized plan to seat side events and the main event.
In fact, the only complaints I have for GP Vegas is it isn’t going on again next year and the playmat was ugly.
The story for Magic has never been more relevant that it has now. As I explained in this article, paying attention to the uncharted realms and the story of Magic will be a key to staying one step ahead. Were you surprised there was a Chandra planeswalker card spoiled for Oath of the Gatewatch? You shouldn’t be! She was in the Uncharted Realms very recently reaffirming her fight on Zendikar. The story also implies right now that Emrakul is gone. Not dead, but gone, to another plane probably eating it’s mana. While it unlikely we will see the conclusion of the Eldrazi story in this next set, it is something to be keenly aware of. The most powerful Eldrazi titan hasn’t received an updated card. It could literally do anything but knowing when it’s coming is key. My guess is we see Emrakul in the fall if Liliana goes with Jace to Innistrad. If she doesn’t, Emrakul is probably on Innistrad.
MISSES!
While this entire set wasn’t a miss… there was much to be desired. Maybe next year we will look more fondly on what is currently Battle for Zendikar but man was it a blowout for mtg finance. Gideon’s pre-order price went up and the last stayed about the same. Everything else you may have pre-ordered basically fell through the floor. It’s like everyone wanted to be a Siege Rhino but fell short. While there may have been some reasons for a mechanical and power level reset (probably to support playing slower Eldrazi cards), this fall set was definitely a shocker to a lot of people involved.
Another pretty big miss for Battle for Zendikar was the insufficient printing of the extremely popular fat pack. Hopefully supply issues will be remedied with Oath of the Gatewatch because they will contain Wastes and full art lands necessary for your dream decks.
Zendikar Expeditions, where do I begin? I guess I’ll continue with the “bad.” What the hell happened at the printers? Was some disgruntled employee with a fork running around the factory scratching the edges off 3/4 of the expeditions before they caught him? This series of cards was one of the most arduous tasks to get a complete set of because of how unsightly damaged foils are. I’m not in love with the slick texture of the card but at least they had the decency not to use full From the Vault foiling. All in all, I hope whichever company Wizards of the Coast used to print these is never used again. It ruined an otherwise fantastic chase product.
Financially there was a lot of turmoil because nobody knew exactly how many expeditions were in each case. There is some good and some bad things about Wizards of the Coast not using guaranteed rarities per box (some games like Cardfight: Vanguard have guaranteed distributions like 1 mythic per case, for example).
What back alley printers are we using these days? While the damaged cards weren’t nearly as bad as the eye sores on Expeditions, there were a lot of collation errors. I played in a Modern Masters 2015 draft that had some of the most awkward problems that had to quickly be rectified by helpless judges. One draft had 4 undraftable packs (missing rare, missing foil, two foils, two rares) because the printer just couldn’t get it right. There is no bigger kick in the face than spending $10 on a pack with no rare. Except maybe if your rare is a Comet Storm. The extremely large range for the highest and lowest EV of a box caused it to be a real money loser unless you were exceptionally lucky or bought a lot to offset bad boxes. Hopefully Wizards has learned from this mistake and makes the average value of the pack much closer to MSRP by including more expensive uncommons.
You missed it. I missed it. We all missed most of the best cards in Magic Origins. Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Hangarback Walker were available for $15 and $2 respectively during pre-order period but people were too busy salivating over a 1 mana planeswalker that currently sees no play and couldnt give the 0/2 merfolk looter the time of day. The lesson learned here is we really can’t discount any Jace card. Maybe we still had some Jace, Living Guildpact hangover but we have to remember than 2 and 3 mana planeswalkers are VERY good.
Overall, I think we had a great year of Magic but some pretty big blemishes on physical card quality put a damper on it. I’m hoping we were loud enough to let Wizards know that this isn’t acceptable and can’t continue.
What do you think are the biggest hits and misses of 2015 in the world of Magic? Leave your comments below!
MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY
