Grinder Finance – A Year in Review

While Magic prices are basically on ice while everyone is on holiday, I thought it would be a good time to wrap up the year and point out some of the highs and lows of the past year of Magic.

HITS!

dtk

Definitely a hit.  Dragons of Tarkir is hands down the best spring set we have had the pleasure of opening since New Phyrexia.  This set was initially viewed as a casual player’s paradise and a bust for competitive players but we can see now that looks continue to be deceiving.

cmds

These 5 commands were a big hit.  Although Silumgar’s Command was definitely the worst, the rest of the command cycle were a great investment if you bought in at the right time.  Kolaghan’s Command and Atarka’s Command are definitely the most surprising with their huge amount of Modern play.

dlords

The cycle of Dragonlords will continue to be movers and shakers in casual formats.  The popularity of Dragonlord Ojutai and Dragonlord Atarka in Standard caused them to be hugely successful pickups if you got in early.  I am sure anyone that you told during spoiler season that 5, 6 and 7 mana gold legendary dragons would be top tier Standard cards you would have been laughed out of the room.

Currently a box of Dragons of Tarkir has on average more value than every spring set in the last 6 years except Rise of the Eldrazi, Avacyn Restored, and New Phyrexia.  That’s pretty good company to be in.  While some Standard-only cards will lose value over time, there are plenty of rares and mythics that will retain value compared to previous spring sets.

ze

Zendikar Expeditions is a touchy subject.  In fact, I’ve included it as both a hit and a miss.  For now, hold your need to close the article and hear me out.  Zendikar Expeditions was a great promotion.  It was totally unexpected and a great way to make the land plane special.  The art on most of them is quite good and despite the dissenting opinions on the border they did a good job making them very unique.  These are likely blue chip stocks of the near future of Magic.  I’d even wager they’re a better place to “park” money than Legacy staples and sealed product.  I also feel like they did a great job making sure they are obtainable while not completely obliterating their value.

modern masters 2015 banner

Ok this might seem like a little bit of a cop out but this is also in the misses column.  But let’s be positive here, Modern Masters 2015 did some good things.  First of all, supply wasn’t as big of an issue.  The raise in the MSRP of the packs meant you were able to find some reasonably priced booster boxes around release.  The anticipation of reprints also caused some cards to really fall off despite not being printed again.  There was a great opportunity to act once the fake MM15 list was spoiled to pick up cards like Goblin Guide.  Right now, Modern Masters 2015 supply still hasn’t dried up but it will by Modern season next year.  Now is the perfect time to get into the reprinted cards.  While this set also had a lot less “value” cards, it didn’t tank a ton of casual cards in it’s attempt to make Cranial Plating affordable.  I’d call that a win since casual cards have a much harder time rebounding.  Adarkar Valkyrie will never be the same.

Mat_MTG_GP_LasVegas

Grand Prix Las Vegas was everything anyone could hope for and more.  Remember those expensive entry fees? Some how Channel Fireball and Cascade Games were able to keep the price at $75 for $60 worth of sealed product.  This event covered all of the bases of what a fantastic Grand Prix needs:

  • Great selection of artists
  • Good value side events (not too top heavy or expensive to discourage casual players)
  • Enough Judges to cover events
  • Enough seating to allow events to fire
  • A well thought out and organized plan to seat side events and the main event.

In fact, the only complaints I have for GP Vegas is it isn’t going on again next year and the playmat was ugly.

ugins insight

The story for Magic has never been more relevant that it has now.  As I explained in this article, paying attention to the uncharted realms and the story of Magic will be a key to staying one step ahead.  Were you surprised there was a Chandra planeswalker card spoiled for Oath of the Gatewatch?  You shouldn’t be!  She was in the Uncharted Realms very recently reaffirming her fight on Zendikar.  The story also implies right now that Emrakul is gone.  Not dead, but gone, to another plane probably eating it’s mana.  While it unlikely we will see the conclusion of the Eldrazi story in this next set, it is something to be keenly aware of.  The most powerful Eldrazi titan hasn’t received an updated card.  It could literally do anything but knowing when it’s coming is key.  My guess is we see Emrakul in the fall if Liliana goes with Jace to Innistrad.  If she doesn’t, Emrakul is probably on Innistrad.

MISSES!

zen fatpack

While this entire set wasn’t a miss… there was much to be desired.  Maybe next year we will look more fondly on what is currently Battle for Zendikar but man was it a blowout for mtg finance.  Gideon’s pre-order price went up and the last stayed about the same.  Everything else you may have pre-ordered basically fell through the floor.  It’s like everyone wanted to be a Siege Rhino but fell short.  While there may have been some reasons for a mechanical and power level reset (probably to support playing slower Eldrazi cards), this fall set was definitely a shocker to a lot of people involved.

Another pretty big miss for Battle for Zendikar was the insufficient printing of the extremely popular fat pack.  Hopefully supply issues will be remedied with Oath of the Gatewatch because they will contain Wastes and full art lands necessary for your dream decks.

ze

Zendikar Expeditions, where do I begin?  I guess I’ll continue with the “bad.”  What the hell happened at the printers?  Was some disgruntled employee with a fork running around the factory scratching the edges off 3/4 of the expeditions before they caught him?  This series of cards was one of the most arduous tasks to get a complete set of because of how unsightly damaged foils are.  I’m not in love with the slick texture of the card but at least they had the decency not to use full From the Vault foiling.  All in all, I hope whichever company Wizards of the Coast used to print these is never used again.  It ruined an otherwise fantastic chase product.

Financially there was a lot of turmoil because nobody knew exactly how many expeditions were in each case.  There is some good and some bad things about Wizards of the Coast not using guaranteed rarities per box (some games like Cardfight: Vanguard have guaranteed distributions like 1 mythic per case, for example).

modern masters 2015 banner

What back alley printers are we using these days?  While the damaged cards weren’t nearly as bad as the eye sores on Expeditions, there were a lot of collation errors.  I played in a Modern Masters 2015 draft that had some of the most awkward problems that had to quickly be rectified by helpless judges.  One draft had 4 undraftable packs (missing rare, missing foil, two foils, two rares) because the printer just couldn’t get it right.  There is no bigger kick in the face than spending $10 on a pack with no rare.  Except maybe if your rare is a Comet Storm.  The extremely large range for the highest and lowest EV of a box caused it to be a real money loser unless you were exceptionally lucky or bought a lot to offset bad boxes.  Hopefully Wizards has learned from this mistake and makes the average value of the pack much closer to MSRP by including more expensive uncommons.

100 jace

You missed it.  I missed it.  We all missed most of the best cards in Magic Origins.  Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Hangarback Walker were available for $15 and $2 respectively during pre-order period but people were too busy salivating over a 1 mana planeswalker that currently sees no play and couldnt give the 0/2 merfolk looter the time of day.  The lesson learned here is we really can’t discount any Jace card.  Maybe we still had some Jace, Living Guildpact hangover but we have to remember than 2 and 3 mana planeswalkers are VERY good.

 

Overall, I think we had a great year of Magic but some pretty big blemishes on physical card quality put a damper on it.  I’m hoping we were loud enough to let Wizards know that this isn’t acceptable and can’t continue.

 

What do you think are the biggest hits and misses of 2015 in the world of Magic?  Leave your comments below!

Generic Finance Article

[Greeting]

  • [Acknowledgement of reader base]
  • [Reference to last week’s article]

[Paragraph detailing plans for this article]

[Body]

  • 1-10 paragraphs
  • [Images]

[Closing Paragraph]

I want to talk about generic mana versus colorless mana now that the two terms can’t be used interchangeably, and I wanted to do it by making the article itself generic, but while that seemed meta and funny to me, it wouldn’t have come across and would have served to amuse only me, like an Easter egg hidden a little too well. I didn’t manage to make it happen, but I’m sure you won’t mind moving on, because there is a point I wanted to make this week: the differentiation between generic and colorless mana, a brand new concept, is going to matter. It’s going to matter a lot. So while the article itself won’t be generic, the subject matter is going to be. If you want a generic article I have a few sources I can point you to.

600-03697886 © Jean-Christophe Riou Model Release: No Property Release: No Generic Canned Food

The Distinction

This is what it looks like when I dive right into the topic at hand without a lot of foreplay. Try and keep up, I guess. It’s foreign to me, too, but we’ll manage.

Why is there a distinction between colorless and generic mana now? It didn’t matter before. As I’m sure 100 percent of you know, we have had to make the distinction because of a new mana symbol that has appeared on some spoiled cards.

endbringer

Look at Endbringer’s mana cost. Its converted mana cost is easy to suss out: it’s six. Endbringer costs six mana, five of which can be generic mana and one of which must be colorless mana; that is to say mana that originated from a colorless source. Generic refers to mana of any color used to pay non-specific mana costs like the little (5) in the circle we’re all used to. Like an Island putting a mana in your mana pool gives you a mana that can be used for blue or generic but not green, Island also gives you a mana that cannot be used for true colorless (non-generic) mana, which is denoted by the diamond mana symbol on this card in both the casting cost and two of the activated abilities. It’s not quite a sixth color, but it’s going to give you a little more trouble than you might imagine.  Planning for it is going to be important.

The Impetus

Why do we care about this distinction? Well, for starters, Endbringer is stupid. I love this card. I want it inside my decks. I want it inside me. I am not sure if I will be able to find room in all of my decks for this card, so I’m really trying to manage my expectations, but the more I think about how much I want to play this card and maybe some others like it, the more I realize it may be a little trickier than I thought. Colorless mana may not be as simple to come by as generic mana, and when the distinction matters, you need to really re-evaluate everything.

mirrorpool

Mirrorpool is a sexy, splashy EDH card that does everything I want a land to do. This plus a Crucible of Worlds is going to change the world. I was so doe-eyed over this card when it was first spoiled that I didn’t stop to consider how tricky this could be to activate. Five mana to make a clone is a bargain when it’s an ability on a land, but if we don’t have enough ways to make true colorless mana in our entire deck, we can’t play Mirrorpool at all. And I want to play Mirrorpool.

The Issue

Manabases in EDH are currently designed with accessing colored mana being pretty important. This may be a “basic land format,” where basics are just fine and cards like Burnished Hart, Solemn Simulacrum, Kodama’s Reach, and Myriad Landscape reward you for playing basic lands, and cards like Boundless Realms really reward you for playing basic lands, but we like access to the mana we need reliably. Players are so eager to make sure they get their colored mana that they don’t see a big issue with “risky” lands like Sejiri Refuge, Golgari Guildgate, and Gruul Turf. You notice players will play that last one, Gruul Turf, but aren’t super likely to play a card like Karoo which does the same thing but gives you a spare colorless rather than two colored mana, even in a mono-white deck? Players aren’t as in love with the Karoo effect as they are with having a land that taps for two colored mana every time they use it. This shows how important colored mana is to players. Whenever we need generic mana, Gruul Turf is good for two of them, helping us power out big spells like Genesis Wave or Primal Surge.

It’s trivial to generate generic mana, so we don’t think about how many sources we have, do we?

PopQuizHotShot

How many sources of true, non-generic, colorless mana do you have in your favorite EDH deck? Four? Five? Do you even know? Well, you probably have a Sol Ring, and maybe a Temple of the False God. Probably a few more. I’m going to estimate seven sources in a two-color deck, six for a three-color one, and maybe four for five-color lists. How close is this estimate?

The answer is a bit surprising. I started poking around online to find lists, mostly at random to try and get a decent sampling of what players are currently building. I found a Scion of the Ur-Dragon deck with one source (Maze’s End) right off the bat.  Some Oloro decks ran six or seven with sources like Pristine Talismanand some ran only three. I even found a few two-color decks that had zero ways to produce true colorless mana. Those decks were rare, but they exist.

Granted, the more likely a player was to be a tryhard with only one deck and load it up with fetches and shocks, the less likely they were to have sources of true colorless. Anyone can easily build with generating colorless in mind, but I think the point isn’t how easy it might be to fit more colorless sources in, but how hard it will be to take good, useful lands out to make room. Sure, we can upend our current mana bases and build them differently so we can jam one new card, but we probably don’t want to. Are there unobtrusive ways to still get the mana we need, not disrupt our lives too much, and have access to the true colorless mana we need? I have a few solutions—and there is money to be made.

Solution – Run Some Wastes

In a three-color deck, we already have cards like Burnished Hart, Solemn Simulacrum, Evolving Wilds, Myriad Landscape, etc. Jamming a few Wastes in there to tutor for means we can keep the same number of basics but have access to true colorless in the deck. We basically remove a few color-generating basics for a few Wastes.

Effectiveness as a Solution

This makes it harder for us to get colored mana. We could take every mana-producing land out and run 40 Wastes. Is that going to help us cast most of our spells? I hate the idea of weakening a deck’s ability to get colored mana. Otherwise, we’d run Rath’s Edge and Dust Bowl and Wasteland and Strip Mine and all the other utility lands in every deck. Unless your commander is an Eldrazi or a silver golem, you’re not going to want to take out colored basics for Wastes.

Is There Money to be Made? 

Yes, actually. I feel like Wastes will be everywhere and under-valued initially, but looking at snow-covered lands and foil snow-covered lands, I feel like foil Wastes could be as much as $10 in a year if they become popular in EDH. They’re almost certain to be undervalued at peak supply and rotation, and those are the two times I’d start to look at them. I’ve harped on this in other articles, so I won’t belabor the point, but Wastes are a card for some situations, just not solving our Endbringer problem.

Solution – Colorless Ramp

Untitled

We have a few lands and spells we could run that are such efficient ways to generate mana that we forgive the fact that the mana they give us is colorless.

Untitled

Untitled

Effectiveness as a Solution

These do the trick, however a lot of these have restrictions. Whether you can only spend the mana on spells like with Shrine of the Forsaken Gods, have to sacrifice the land like with Crystal Vein, or having to wait like with Temple of the False God, these lands come with strings attached. However, we play with a lot of these cards already, because the restrictions aren’t so great as to keep us from playing them in decks that don’t require the colorless mana to be non-generic. If we want to jam a Kozilek or Endbringer (and I do want to jam Endbringer), that just makes these lands even better.

Is There Money to be Made?

Eh. The problem is the cards that are good enough to be played already are already expensive. Repeated reprintings has crushed the price of Temple of the False God to around $0.50, but the foil is $25 and seems safe but not poised to go anywhere but glacially upward. The cards that are the least obtrusive new inclusions have the fewest financial opportunities. The cards with the most room to grow are not played much now for a reason, and we’d need a huge increase in adoption to move the needle. My desire to play with a Staff of Nin that’s also a 5/5 isn’t enough, I fear. These cards do the trick, but they’re kind of doing the trick already. Sol Ring isn’t going to spike because it helps us draw a card with a bulk rare Eldrazi, it’s going to go in decks because it’s Sol Ring.

Solution – Lands That Do It All

Do you want to summon and activate Endbringer with the same lands that can help you play the Prophet of Kruphix that makes him even stupider? It’s pretty simple, really.

Untitled

Sexy, right?

Effectiveness as a Solution

Perfection. These give us two colors of mana and can also tap for true colorless, and don’t give us damage to boot. These can’t be tutored up with Burnished Hart like a Forest, fetched with a Misty Rainforest, or divined for with Cultivate, but these solve our problem and solve it good. If you have a Simic Guildgate, Thornwood Falls, or some other land that’s not super exciting but is in the deck because it’s cheap, taps for mana of two of your colors, and doesn’t deal you damage, you have a card to take out. Pain lands deal damage to you, but that rarely matters. The number of times I’ve lost games of EDH to my life total being reduced to zero pale in comparison to the number of times I’ve been milled, killed by commander damage when I had over 100 life, been hit with a quadrillion copies of Zealous Conscripts, or lost to Laboratory Maniac.  A pain land is “calibrated” for a 20-life format, so when you think about it, Yavimaya Coast deals about half a damage in EDH terms. I’ll pay half a life to get an entire mana any day.

Is There Money to be Made?

Yup. These were already a pretty good buy and these are a cheap solution for EDH decks. For a while I thought “check lands” were my go-to non-basic, two-colored land. The problem there is that there is a wild price divergence going on.

Untitled

Untitled

It’s a little difficult to tout this cycle as the “answer” when there is such a price divergence going on. One has been reprinted much, much more often than the other, but you see my point. Jam a Sunpetal Grove all you want; I used to buy these for a buck cash from players before they stopped selling at all on TCGplayer for me. Enough players are fine playing guildgates and gain lands that come into play tapped that the fact that these sometimes don’t come into play tapped seems trivial.

Guildgates are durdly. Karoos don’t tap for colorless (except for actual Karoo). Shocks are expensive, and if you have them you’re playing them already and know they’re worth it. Too many utility lands like Alchemist’s Refuge dilute your ability to produce colored mana reliably, and even gold-star lands like ABU duals can’t get you the true colorless you need. Pain lands are perfect here. If only you could run more than one in a Vorel deck.

Untitled

This is the graph for an Origins foil. It’s under $3 with a lot of potential. There is the risk of even more reprints, true, but with core sets being a thing of the past, it’s less likely that we will see another printing. Most likely, the mana needs of each individual set will be covered by something new. For now, these cards are the cheapest they’re ever going to be and there are a lot of them in binders. If you can get these for buylist (cash is king no matter where you go), it’s pretty tough to lose. There is very little downside to adopting these in EDH and the number of lands each deck wants goes up precipitously depending on the number of colors it is. A two-color deck can only run one pain land, but a three-color deck can run three, and a five-color deck can run ten. Will it want to? I guess that all depends on how badly it wants to activate Mirrorpool and not Maze’s End.

It remains to be seen whether the few “true colorless” cards are going to be a significant price  driver in EDH. What is known is that with the pain lands being historically affordable and historically available and less likely than ever to be reprinted soon, these are a great target. Pain lands are generic. But that’s what we want.

PROTRADER: Their Second-Best Album

By: Travis Allen

If you’re reading this the day it goes live, Christmas is in two days. My condolences to all of you that receive intro decks from well-intentioned relatives. I suppose it’s too late for my open letter to friends and family members of Magic players to be useful, though if you have one aunt that waits until the last second to do her shopping, perhaps she’d take it to heart.

Gift-giving holidays make me anxious in a way that few things do, and receiving things like Theros intro decks is part of the reason why. This person tried—genuinely tried—to give you something they they thought would be meaningful to you, and you’re forced to feign excitement for a stack of cards you normally wouldn’t accept for free. Nothing stirs up a slurry of decisively unseasonal emotions like off-the-mark Magic card gifts. Blegh. Here’s hoping you handle it better than I do!

This year I took control of the holiday and opted to buy myself a Magic-laden Christmas gift. I have to say, I really surprised myself with my generosity. My magnanimity knows no bounds.

kkkkkk

I ended up purchasing nearly $2,000 worth of Expeditions lands over the course of the last week and a half or so, with the intention of keeping basically none of them. This is a speculative purchase, and I’m looking to profit on these within the next four months or so. I’m not just horn-tooting, though. I want to show you why I considered this, the research I did, and how I arrived at my decision. It’s my hope that by illustrating my process, you’ll see that doing your homework is vital to succeeding in these endeavors, and hopefully be able to apply these techniques to your own purchases down the road.

The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.

To learn how ProTrader can benefit YOU, click here to watch our short video.

expensive cards

ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Going Mad – More Expeditions

By: Derek  Madlem

We’ve known for a while that we were going to get 20 additional expeditions in Oath of the Gatewatch, then Mark Rosewater confirmed that they were, in fact, also going to be lands. The #mtgfinance hive mind quickly settled on the man lands and filter lands to be the most likely culprits. The “spoiling” of Mystic Gate seemed to confirm our suspicions, but then we were thrown for a bit of a loop and the dream scenario of ten random lands showing up  rather than the man lands came true.

Hierarchy

In my last article, I stated that the price for these lands doesn’t fall into a clear hierarchy like we saw with the fetches and shocks. We knew which were going to be the most expensive and every other would just fall in line behind it in a rough percentage based way. With this, that hierarchy is not as clear. Sure, we’re most excited about Wasteland at the top, and probably the least excited about Tectonic Edge, but then again…Tectonic Edge sees more tournament play than Wooded Bastion by a pretty significant margin.

So let’s take a look at each of these and figure out where they fit in with past printings financially.

Wasteland

wasteland

Wasteland exists in a really weird place on this list because it first appeared in a set that existed before foil printings but has since had three, count ’em three, promo foil printings. The prices breakdown of these is like this:

Original Art – $250
Second Printing – $205
2015 Judge foil – $275

The latest printing is still sitting a bit high because these haven’t been fully dispersed to judges yet, or maybe they have, who really understands the new judge foil program? I think it’s pretty reasonable to expect that $250 is going to be the ceiling on the Expeditions Wasteland because “OG” pimp trumps “new money” pimp, a phenomena we saw with the original Onslaught fetches vs. Expeditions.

I would expect the Expeditions copy to settle in the $200-225 range, and I also expect the 2015 Judge FOIL to fall into line around $200 with the second printing once they have been more widely dispersed.

Horizon Canopy

horizoncanopy

Horizon Canopy has the dubious honor of being expensive as all holy hell on the basis that it’s just kinda rare. It’s not widely played as more than a one of in Modern outside of Bogles and is pretty much only showing up as a singleton in Legacy Maverick and Death & Taxes decks.

Current foil copies of Horizon Canopy are hovering around $175 and I doubt this copy is going to supplant the original. I’d put the ceiling for this card at $150, but realistically that number is going to creep lower as this takes much of the upward pressure off of the original printing of Horizon Canopy printings. Giving players an alternative when it comes to foiling out decks is never good for the price of the original and Canopy typically showing up as a one of doesn’t help…Expeditions make a great choice for singleton “pimping”. I’d expect this to settle out around $100-125.

It’s likely that these two are the “top dogs” of the Oath expeditions, but where’s everything else fit in?

Ancient Tomb

ancient tomb

This is where things get tricky. Ancient Tomb shows up in variety of Legacy decks and in Vintage Workshop decks. There is a foil printing of Ancient Tomb but is has a major issue – it’s a From the Vault printing. This series has been loved and hated for providing foil versions of cards that were never printed in foil and then doing so with a finish that makes the cards somehow less desirable. The Expeditions Ancient Tomb gives Magic’s 1% something that they don’t have to be ashamed of.

The FTV Ancient Tomb is hovering around $16 currently, and there is little chance that this isn’t in the 4x to 5x range of that printing right? Even an Expeditions Smoldering Marsh is $45, so $60-75 seems like a very easy threshold to cross, but where does it stop? I’ll be honest, I am not well versed in the mindset of Vintage players when it comes to pimping their decks. How do they feel about Expeditions in general? It makes perfect sense to prefer the original printing of a fetch land to the latest incarnation, but what about in a heads up dual with FTV?

There is a world where these end up closer to $200 than $100, but I’m not sure whether or not we’re living in it. The biggest drawback for Expeditions is the atrocious border and mostly opaque text boxes that keep them from actually being “full art”. Maybe there’s a few among those reading this that can shed some light on how the Vintage pimps feel about Expeditions.

Forbidden Orchard

forbidden orchard

Forbidden Orchard has what I feel is one of the cooler artworks in this round of Expeditions, but is pretty much featured in a single deck in all of Magic – Oath of Druids in Vintage. Pack foils for the original are under $20 and there’s also a FTV printing that’s sitting around $7, so the value of this Expeditions card is going to lean heavily on the question we asked with Ancient Tomb: how do the most hardcore of Vintage players feel about Expeditions in general?

Strip Mine

stripmine

Now if I was a smarmy turd, I would point out that the artwork for this appears to be quite the opposite of strip mining as it’s clearly underground…oh right, I am, and I did. Once you get past the technically inaccurate artwork for this, you have another FTV vs. Expeditions cage match. Strip Mine is only allowed as a one of in Vintage and gets heavy play in Commander because ruining someone else’s fun is the name of the game.

In general I feel like the low water mark for any of these Expeditions has to be the $45 mark we see with Smoldering Marsh, but pimping our Commander decks IS a thing, and shiny singletons still command (see what I did there?) a premium. With the FTV printing hovering around the $30 mark, I can’t see this being much more than $60, but again, who knows? Strip Mine is the only card that is literally in each and every Commander deck I’ve ever built, so I feel it’s pretty universal in that format and there are a lot of Commander pimps out there, not to mention that whole Vintage thing again…

Dust Bowl

dustbowl

Dust Bowl is for those Commander terrorists that just want to watch the world burn. Pack foils for this card are around $75, so that seems to be a pretty reasonable ceiling for these as they do not really see much play outside of Commander.

Eye of Ugin

Eye of Ugin

One the topic of spicy one ofs we have Eye of Ugin. With two printings and foil copies for as low as $7, there’s not too much hope for this one unless there’s a sudden surge to really embrace Expeditions as the de facto pimp edition. While this does see constructed play in Modern Tron and fringe play in Legacy Cloudpost decks, it’s unlikely this one is going to get past that “technically it’s an Expeditions” price at the bottom of the pile.

Mana Confluence

Mana Confluence

Not really excited about this one kneecapping my spec on foil Mana Confluences for eternal formats, but at least the art has something happening on it this time around. Mana Confluence has the dubious honor of being the best land for a bad deck. Generally only showing up in Legacy Dredge and Modern Bloom Titan decks doesn’t help the forecast for this one immensely, but it’s ability to slot into nearly any multicolor Commander deck makes it at least a desirable card for some players. I’d put this one somewhere in the $45-60 range as it’s probably less desirable to own than any of the shock lands but it’s still a Expeditions land.

Kor Haven

korhaven

Kor Haven was a good catch on Wizards’ part for a land that’s cool and fits thematically on Zendikar. Kor Haven is one of those cards that I still feel like Commander players have failed to rediscover as foil copies have been steady around $45 for as far back as there are data points on it’s price. This doesn’t make for an extremely compelling case that this one’s price will be much different as it’s not likely that the Expeditions copy is even half as rare as the original printing. There’s a chance that the Expeditions copy being printed makes the Commander hive mind remember this card exists, but probably not enough to really move the needle.

Tectonic Edge

tectonicedge

Tectonic Edge has the dubious honor of being the worst of three uncommons to appears as Expeditions. This is going to see far more Modern play than Smoldering Marsh and friends, but it might be hard for players to get past the fact that Tectonic Edge was printed at uncommon during this decade. It gets played in Modern but not in any significant quantity. Sure it sees play in Commander, but mostly as a budget alternative to Wasteland and Strip Mine…and there just aren’t a ton of budget pimps in the world. Tectonic Edge is likely going to sit on the price floor, or be the one to break through it completely. I would not be at all surprised to see these as low as $25.

Filter Lands

firelitthicket

Filter lands haven’t made huge waves in constructed formats since their rotation from Standard, typically showing up as singletons outside of aberrations like the Geralf’s Messenger Jund before the Bloodbraid Elf ban. However, they remain extremely popular in Commander and are one of the premiere dual land cycles in that format.

Currently their prices range from Graven Cairns on the low end at $18 to Cascade Bluffs on the high end at $65. Wherever these fall on the spectrum, we can expect loose ranking based on color desirability with the blue ones on the top end and the Naya colors on the low end with black / red trailing as the caboose, because let’s face it – nobody likes Graven Cairns.

I think it’s fair to guesstimate these falling primarily in the $50-75 range, as there’s not a huge demand to push these above and beyond their predecessors.

Wild Cards

The two questions that will most impact the prices of these Expeditions are “how are these received by Vintage players?” and “how much do Commander players care about consistency?” It’s quite possible that demand (and therefore price) for the filter lands goes higher if Commander players embrace these lands in general.

If you’re already pimping your commander deck with Expeditions shocks and fetches, there’s a decent chance you say “might as well” and follow suit with filter lands, Wastelands, Strip Mines, and Mana Confluences. A similar phenomena is possible within the Vintage community when it comes to the Ancient Tomb/Forbidden Orchard/Mana Confluence conundrum.

Of course there’s always those eBay preorder prices to  look at for reference…looks like Forbidden Orchard is sitting unsold at prices anywhere between $55 and $400 so you can take that for what it’s worth.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY