Grinder Finance – The Rise of the Rise of the Eldrazi

The Eldrazi titans were once frowned upon in booster packs.  The seemingly uncastable legendary colorless creatures started their life cycle as bulk mythics.  As time went on and the increased popularity of “sneaking” creatures into play and Commander, their prices rose.

emrakul

Each of the Eldrazi titans have a slightly different amount of printings.  There are far more Emrakul, the Aeon’s Torn than any other Eldrazi titan due to the fact that it was a pre-release promo (when everyone got the same one).  As you can see from this graph his price largely got out of control until he was reprinted in Modern Masters 2015.  It is unlikely he will ever be usurped as the most deadly creature to attack with and his price is likely to only increase once again from here.

kozilek

Kozilek is a different beast.  He is the only Eldrazi titan that had not received a supplementary printing until Modern Masters 2015.  His competitive play is almost non-existent but he still reached a $65 price point.  The reprint was brutal for him, dropping him down to 40% of his peak price.

kozliek f

Foil Kozilek, however, faired a bit better.  Due to the generally unappealing Modern Masters 2015 foiling process, the foil version of Kozilek only fell about 50% from his peak price.  I expect supplementary printings in the future to also use a “cheaper” printing process and thus generally be a lot less liked than original printings.  Original printings for the sake of being originals already had a price premium.

What about the new Eldrazi Titans?

ulamog ceaseless

Creatures got a lot better in the 7 years since Rise of the Eldrazi so it only makes sense that newer version of these titans exceed the power level of the old ones.  Without the return of the Annihilator mechanic they are much less good for sneaking into play but their “On cast” triggers are head and shoulders above their predecessors. Ulamog shaved a mana off his mana cost but more than doubled his cast trigger’s effectiveness.  I think this titan is unlikely to get banned in EDH and will become a colorless staple in almost every deck in the future.  For a large amount of mana, Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger allows any casual player to remove a problematic permanent regardless of the colors they normally play.  The icing on the cake is that his ability is mostly uncounterable as well.  I’m a pretty big believer that Ulamog will be a great pickup in the next week or two.

ulamog foil

Wait a second.  Why is this Ulamog going in the wrong direction?  A lot of casual players (or Commander players) that would be more likely to purchase a foil Ulamog are also much more inclined to wait for it to hit rock bottom.  Where is that?  I have no idea but I would definitely keep an eye out for the price of this in the coming weeks.  I find it hard to believe it will continue to fall even though it is Standard and Modern playable.  In fact, I think it is likely a better investment if you want to hold them longer term.  We’ve seen from Kozilek, Butcher of Truth, that foil prices tend to fall a lot less harshly in the event of a reprint.

cyclonic rift

It’s hard to find a more modern (Post Innistrad) casual card that continues to hold value and grow but Cyclonic Rift is a great example.  It saw a reprint in Commander 2014 which crashed the price of the non-foil from almost $7 to $3.  The foil saw a minor stutter and then continued it’s trend upward, regaining all of the ground it lost compared to only the $0.50 that the non-foil gained.  While I’m not exactly sure how they could reprint Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger in a supplementary product, it is almost guaranteed to not be foil.

The X Factor

IMG_20151117_192404

Is this real? My best guess is probably.  How people react to it’s official spoiling is the real question.  While Emrakul, the Aeon’s Torn is banned in Commander, the other 3 titan cards are not (yet).  This could cause renewed interest in making a colorless Commander deck because now you won’t just get completely blown out by Wave of Vitriol (for example).  The official spoiler of this could cause a run on very popular colorless cards and it would be wise to be aware of which Standard legal ones you may own.

Standard Notables

  • Conduit of Ruin ( foil )
  • Sanctum of Ugin
  • Shrine of the Forsaken Gods
  • Ugin, The Spirit Dragon
  • Oblivion Sower
  • Void Winnower

Older Notables

  • Metalworker (on reserve list)
  • All is Dust (very popular sweeper ; at lowest price in years )
  • Everflowing Chalice (FNM Foil)
  • Karn Liberated (lowest price points – very powerful)

As Jason Alt has recommended,  I would keep an eye out on Edhrec.com to see what cards become more popular as newer Commander decks are built.

The week in review:

reiterate

Reiterate is a card that has always had a pretty low supply point and has been maturing nicely over the years but the new UR Commander deck caused a buying frenzy that continues to have very odd prices show up on TCGplayer.  Due to the fact that there are no more Grands Prix for the rest of the year, it will take some time for it come down from the $12-14 price point it is on TCGplayer.  Vendors don’t have a great way to restock this card but I expect it to end up settling around $5-6 when all is said and done.

top

Another SCG Legacy Open caused another wave of complaints about how Sensei’s Divining Top slows down the format.  I will reiterate my point in earlier articles, I don’t want to hold these if they are an investment.  If you play with them it’s not a big deal but keeping a lot of money tied up in a controversial uncommon doesn’t sound like a great idea to me.  I’m not sure it will get banned but I’m not sure there is a lot of reason to take that chance.

PROTRADER: A Farewell to Khans

December: the time of year when players start to get bored of the new Draft format. Battle for Zendikar is a deeper set than most, and I’ve fired more than 30 events in the last couple months, but it’s starting to lose its luster. Part of the problem is that the set doesn’t really have a ton of value in it. With the rotation of Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged, however, we may see that change.

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PROTRADER: Long Term Buys – The New World Order?

A number of general strategies have tended to pay off on Wall Street over the past century. You know the type – diversify, buy what you know, focus on top and bottom line growth, be greedy when others are fearful, etc. While never guarantees, following these guidelines will generally lead you towards better, more consistent financial reward when investing.

Some MTG finance strategies parallel that of Wall Street. In Magic there’s still benefit to diversification, for example. There are also unique strategies worth noting for this hobby in particular – pay close attention to Standard rotation, make note of when Modern season begins, buy and hold Power for the long term, etc.

But not all adages echoed across MTG financiers are permanent truths. Sometimes confirmation bias (a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions) can cloud judgment and lead to incorrect conclusions. Even some of the most tried and true hypotheses can’t be confirmed as general investing truth due to the dynamic environment we’re in today.

This week I will touch upon a couple investing fallacies that I’ve personally bumped into recently, and how I’m shifting my investment strategy accordingly. I also haver a hypothetical question that will really shake up people’s mindset (well, maybe).

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A Guide to Black Friday Buying

I remember the appeal of Black Friday. Stuff yourself on turkey (and ham, and potatoes, and deviled eggs, and stuffing, and wine, etc), play games with the family, listen to your crazy uncle and live-tweet what he says, drink more wine and then pass out.

Then wake up at 4 a.m. on Friday and drive to Wal-Mart or Target to begin to camp out for those 7 a.m. openings. If you’re really hardcore you get there even earlier so as to try and get in on the doorbuster sale. You walk away with the fancy TV if you’re lucky, and you probably get a lot of stuff you maybe don’t actually need. Then you go home and sleep.

These days, Black Friday starts on Thursday. At not at 11:59 either. 6 p.m. openings is, frankly, stupid. I get that some people (very few) want to eat and then go shop, the fact is you’re never going to get the doorbusters unless you skip Thanksgiving meal altogether. I’m not a fan of this at all, but it would be fairly disingenuous of me to criticize it too heavily given that it is the natural conclusion of capitalism, and I have a writing gig here and a store to run thanks to that. Still, I hate it.

Luckily, when it comes to Magic, we don’t have to worry about that. You wake up in the morning and begin the crazy Black Friday rush of surfing the Internet in your pajamas. I had originally planned on compiling a big list of Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales, but Reddit has beat me to it. Since I can’t imagine making a more comprehensive list than theirs, I’ve decided not to try. Instead, I want to offer some tips on how to plan out your holiday purchases this year.

The Big Ones

Let’s start with Star City Games, the biggest retailer of note. Their Black Friday deals have just been announced, and there’s some big ones. Battle for Zendikar boxes at just $80 is actually insane, given that it’s a full $10 cheaper than boxes available on TCGPlayer. Even the EV of the opened packs comes out to above that — though you’re playing the Gideon lottery here, of course.

Next up is there sale on true collector items: Alpha/Beta and graded goods. While I’m no expert on these prices, there’s certainly a lot to like here if you’re in the market. Rarely do you get the intersection of a truly reputable dealer (and SCG is unparalleled here) with such high-end collectibles. I understand how little of the market this speaks to, but it’s worth checking out. Of course, there’s also the consideration of this being timed just a few weeks after the big announcement of reduced Legacy support. While I’m not drawing any causation here between the two, I imagine others will chime in on the subject in the days to come.

magic-unlim-volcanic-island

While we haven’t seen all of Channel Fireball’s deals, I have to imagine they will look good as well. Both of these retailers can afford to really jump in with some “loss leaders,” if you will, and that means they’re willing to offer up some of the best deals on the market to get people into their store.

The third of the big outlets, TCGPlayer, has a significantly less exciting offer. Getting five percent of your purchase back in store credit is nice, sure, but it’s not anything to really go deep on. While TCGPlayer is obviously still your best outlet for cheap cards — and if you were planning an order now’s the time to place it — nothing about their deal makes me want to jump in.

Other online stores

Moving down the list, I would also suggest checking out TrollandToad, which has an actually insane deal with $60 Dragons of Tarkir booster boxes. This is a full $20 under TCGPlayer, and essentially half of the EV of the box. I’m not going to say arbitrage is worth your time here, but the truth is that’s just an absurdly low price for a set that’s going to be legal another eight months. [EDIT: SOLD OUT on boxes; that was fast].

Card Kingdom is doing a “spend $100, get $15 in store credit” deal, which again isn’t bad if you’re planning a purchase but not something that draws me in. CoolStuffInc seems to have their actual singles discounted, so if you’re looking into something specific it’s worth comparing there, though I’ll note that their prices aren’t exactly low to begin with, so there’s maybe not a ton to be gained here.

But here’s one that I do consider worth going out of your way to check out: Face to Face Games. The store is located in Canada, but if you’re north of the border or even in the U.S. (sorry, everyone else), this is worth looking into thanks to a 15 percent off coupon code for Black Friday only (code: BLACKFRIDAY2015). If I’m looking to buy a deck or a collection of cards (or spec targets), this is likely the best place to look. In many ways this is the same as Card Kingdom giving $15 on a $100 order, except in this case you don’t have to spend your “savings” on more cards.

Big-Box Stores

These are your Wal-Mart and Targets of the world, as well as some smaller chains. While those two big ones don’t have anything to write home about, Walgreens has 40 percent off, I’ve heard Hastings has buy one, get one deals going on, and you should also be on the lookout for any other price-matching guarantees that stores in your area may float around.

Overall, there’s nothing huge here, but 40 percent off at Walgreens is a great excuse to buy any product you may want either for yourself or the upcoming gift-giving season. I’m not sure if you can grab Commander 2015 product at these locations or not, but this is a great way to get in on those if you can.

Everything’s local

With all of this in mind, remember that “Small Business Saturday” is a newer trend that’s popping up. I know a lot of local stores that are having some big sales, and when you’re done recovering from Thanksgiving food and finished scouring the internet for deals, be sure to go check out your local game store. They almost always have good deals of their own and are highly likely to want to work with you, given that you represent repeat business to them. The typical LGS is a lifeline to all players, and we don’t want to forget them in the rush that is Black Friday madness.

 

With so many places to look, I’ll stop here. Get out there and find some deals!

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter/Twitch/YouTube

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