PROTRADER: Götterdämmerung

BRIEF INTRODUCTORY ASIDE: I want to first start off similar to the way the Thriller music video did, with a disclaimer. I do not believe that the following descriptions of events are likely, nor are they predictions of future events. Like a fire drill at school, this is more about being prepared for an extremely unlikely occurrence in the event it actually happens. Let’s all just hope that things never get to that point.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.


 

Anticipating Commander 2015

By: Cliff Daigle

The new Commander set is almost here, and while there’s been a lot of talk about what might get reprinted, today I want to look at some cards that could be reprinted and take a big hit, financially. These are cards that trade well in EDH circles but represent limited quantities due to age or set, and I don’t want to be caught with these once their value goes down.

This is direct contrast to what I advocated last week, about the expensive cards holding their price when reprinted in an Event Deck or Clash Pack. The Commander precons have a larger printing than either of those.

Some examples of what I mean:

Caged Sun lost $2-$3 of its value, having been printed in Commander 2014. Chaos Warp lost about 30% of its value. Baleful Strix fell by more than half. I’m looking out for cards that have gotten significant constructed play, or are popular in casual formats, but have only been printed once or twice.

One interesting thing to note is that because the Commander decks are all non-foil, the foil versions of the cards I’m going to list are relatively safe, especially if they are in the pre-Mirrodin frame.

Bribery (currently $16) – This has two large printings, Mercadian Masques and 8th Edition. By modern standards, that’s a relatively small amount of cards and this is one of the premier cards to cast in Commander or Cube, making this a card I don’t want to keep. This would easily drop to below $10 and maybe as low as $5.

Black Market ($13) – You haven’t lived until you’ve had this in play for a couple of turns, watching things die and being so very thrilled about it. Much like Braid of Fire ($10) this hearkens back to when extra mana meant pain. With that rule no longer in effect, these cards have steadily climbed and would take a big hit, likely down to the $5 range. 

Food Chain ($16) – There are now two creatures to go infinite with this card, Misthollow Griffin and Torrent Elemental. It’s seeing fringe Legacy play as well, and would likely go down by half or more if it was in the new Commander decks.

Phyrexian Altar ($17) – This enables all sorts of shenanigans but hasn’t seen a reprint ever. That’s kept the quantity incredibly low, and a reprint would easily drop this below $10, if not farther.

Aggravated Assault ($11) – There’s a lot of combos with this card. Bear Umbra is one but Savage Ventmaw is a new and spicy one to add to a mega-attacker deck. While there’s been a few cards for extra attacks, this is the most reusable one.

Gratuitous Violence ($5) – The usual use for this card is in pinger-style decks, like tapping Kamhal, Pit Fighter to do six damage. But use it with Heartless Hidetsugu and threaten the table with immediate and game-ending retribution.

Seedborn Muse ($12) – This has had three printings but none within the last eight years. It’s going to take a hit but the ability is so good that the price will eventually come back. This is also a strong candidate for banning in Commander, which would hurt the price as well.

Oblivion Stone ($32) – An inclusion in older Commander printings, it would fall by at least ten dollars, and maybe as much as twenty. It’s fantastic in all sorts of formats, so even if it isn’t reprinted now, it will be again.

Extraplanar Lens ($12) – I could not believe how much this has grown in price. What’s really silly is how people will play 20-30 snow-covered basics in order to give the benefit to just themselves, and that’s why snow lands have the price they do. Don’t forget this is card disadvantage, and only good in mono-colored decks. As such, a reprint would drop this to $2 or less.

Auriok Champion ($28) – It’s awesome in Soul Sisters decks, and there’s a very good chance that the black/white deck has a lifegain theme. A reprint here would drop it to $10 or less.

Staff of Domination ($26) – It spiked hard after being unbanned, but it’s only used in infinite-mana decks. I could easily see this dropping to $5, because only a few decks want this effect.

Minamo, School at Water’s Edge ($20), Shinka, Bloodsoaked Keep ($2), Eiganjo Castle ($8), Shizo, Death’s Storehouse ($8), and Okina, Temple to the Grandfathers ($5)

These are all due to be reprinted and will take a big hit when it happens. Champions of Kamigawa was a block that undersold, and that means there’s a lot of scarcity at work. There weren’t all that many copies of Minamo to start with, and they’ve all been snapped up over time. I singled out these five lands, but so much of this block is overpriced that really don’t want to be sitting on anything from this period.

Cloudstone Curio ($15) – It’s seeing some play in Elves decks, which really enjoy bouncing a creature over and over. The effect can be very powerful, even if it seems to only enable twenty-minute turns.

Rings of Brighthearth ($19) – This is such a narrow effect, but the decks that want it REALLY want it. There aren’t many, though, and a reprint would drop this by more than half.

Mana Reflection ($20) – I think this would come back to about this price if it were reprinted, but I’m mentioning it because it’ll take a hit. Eventually, it’ll come back, like Wurmcoil Engine has.

Regal Force ($15) – Green doesn’t have much card draw. Combine with the aforementioned Curio for maximum drawing.

Master of the Wild Hunt ($14) – Every time this isn’t reprinted, it goes up a dollar. The streak will end, and it will end hard.

Oracle of Mul Daya ($14) – This has the potential to rebound as well, though decks have Courser of Kruphix as well now.

Fauna Shaman ($13) – The ‘fixed’ Survival of the Fittest, this is just super-useful for not just tutoring but enabling graveyard plays. It’s five years old, though, and the supply is the only reason for the price.

Linvala, Keeper of Silence ($35) – She wasn’t in the FTV this summer, she’s avoided all reprint opportunities so far. Doesn’t change the fact that her low supply, moderate Modern play, and tribal appeal account for this price. She would easily lose half her value and likely more.

Nirkana Revenant ($17) – Doubling your mana is an effect that never loses appeal, and this comes with a built-in way to use all that extra mana. Rise of the Eldrazi is a set with great appeal and low quantity, so a reprint would hit the value hard.

Lighthouse Chronologist ($10) – The most expensive of the Level Up cards, we do so love to take extra turns. A reprint would hurt the price, down to six or seven dollars, but it might recover over time.

Asceticism ($7) – This would not recover. It’s a rare from five years ago, and it would be lucky to stay at $2 if it were in a Commander set.

Darksteel Plate ($7) – I’ve used this as an example for years of what casual appeal can do for a card’s price. This is everything you want, except maybe for hexproof. This is another card that would be hit into the $2 range.

Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite ($15), Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger ($18), Urabrask the Hidden ($7), Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur ($9), and Sheoldred, Whispering One ($13)

We have Sheoldred as a prerelease promo, Elesh Norn was just in Modern Masters 2015, and the others haven’t gotten a second wind yet. They are all good at different things and will easily drop by half if the cycle was added to the set of decks. I especially enjoy how Urabrask is a way to stymie Splinter Twin combos.

I deliberately left off some uncommons and commons, because those are even harder to predict. But if there are other cards you want to mention, that’s what the comment section is for!


 

PROTRADER: Accountability – Reviewing Rotation Calls

There’s very little more important to me than accountability in Magic finance. I write to help people afford this game, not to make myself rich—this is why I don’t speculate. Still, I obviously follow the market very closely, and that’s why I’ve been writing over the last few weeks and months about the cards I thought were good pickups as we neared rotation. With so many important cards leaving Standard, it was clear we were going to see some new stuff rise up to take those places, and even if the archetypes themselves have remained the same, we’ve seen new cards fill in.

Without further preamble, I’ll dig in with the first article I wrote on the subject, published on August 13, 2015.

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Started from the Bulk and Now We’re Here

So has anyone found interesting lots on Facebook as a result of last week’s article? I’m curious to see if anyone found some nice decks, piles of staples, or anything else at a significant discount while using the methods I described.  That article was a sort of flashback/addition to one from almost six months ago, so I figured I might as well repeat the trend. Does anyone else remember this personal anecdote that I wrote up back in June? I wanted to explain my evolution from “random high school student and FNM grinder” to “that one guy who buys all of your Magic cards and has most of what you need for your deck.” I felt that it was successful in doing so for the most part, but it lacked in a pretty significant area that I’m surprised nobody called me out on.

Starting from (Almost) Nothing

I never really actually explained anything in detail with hard numbers about how much cash flow I started out with, how I used that initial cash flow to get cards, and the methods that I used to recycle that money into more cards and money, then into more money and cards, and slowly build a house of some sort. Almost like a house o—oh, forget it. I actually got the idea to write this article thanks to @LengthyXemit on Twitter, who just recently  put out a floor report of GP Madison for us. The afterthought at the end is actually what sparked this for me: what would you do with $100 if it was all you had to start your MTG finance portfolio?

Bonus Question:
If you had $100 to start your MTGFinance portfolio what would you buy?

“Collection at buylist” – Ogre
“Original Zendikar Lands at a quarter or less” – Ryan Bushard
“Bulk Rares at 10 cents as long as I had an out”- CoolStuffInc Buyer
“Bulk C/U at 3 per K” – Floor Grinder.
“A collection from a local player” – This editor

“Most of the above.” –Douglas Johnson

Personally, I’d try and diversity my investment a little bit, but my answer incorporates most of the above responses. I’d want some bulk commons and uncommons at $3 per thousand, a good chunk of bulk rares at a dime a piece, and a couple of small starting local or Facebook lots at approximately  buylist prices. I disagree with Ryan on the Zendikar lands, but that’s a discussion for another day.

Now let’s hop back in that time machine to when I was an FNM grinder in high school. I was lucky and had literally zero bills to pay, so any income from my unpleasant job at Kmart went straight into my only hobby.

Let’s say for argument’s sake that I only had $100 to spend on cards back then, and was starting from absolutely nothing.  We have to try and grind this $100 into $200, while keeping both cards and cash liquid at all times. Nothing loses a returning customer faster than the phrase, “Sorry, I don’t have cash at the moment. I can’t buy that.”

If we start at $100 cash, then we want to stick to getting as much bang for our buck as we can. We might not want to jump in the big pond by buying Force of Will from a local higher-end player for a buylist of $70 (even if he needs the money)—that runs the risk of the same guy coming back with another Force or equally high-end card while we have almost all of our initial hundred tied up in a single card. While there’s a chance that  we could flip the Force for $90 on TCGplayer (or more likely, Facebook) for instant return, I think it’s much more wide to go wide instead of tall with our initial investment.

If I’m a young teenager with a hundred dollars in a pool full of larger fish with big pockets, I want to attack a smaller market that they’re not bothering with. Don’t be the guy chasing after everyone else’s Expeditions lands. There are tons of competitive players with thousands of commons and uncommons sitting in their basements from sets and blocks in the past. Does your LGS even buy bulk rares? What about bulk commons and uncommons? These are common blind spots of some tournament grinders, because they just don’t want to take the time and effort involved in picking, piecing, and sorting out their cards. There’s a physical space constraint on bulk, as well, and some significant others don’t take kindly to their living rooms being full of white boxes of cardboard.

This makes bulk one of your more attractive options when starting from a low cash level. Instead of sitting on your hands for four months waiting for your Mantis Riderto jump from $.50 to $3, you could be processing thousands of cards over and over again.

Immovable Object

Another reason why we’re sticking with bulk is that there’s really no risk of it ever going down in price. Unlike buying singles, a thousand bulk commons and uncommons literally cannot go down in price. The invisible non-competitive players out there outnumber us financiers and grinders on a scale that’s probably somewhere around 10:1. Those players just want a bunch of cards to jam decks with, and you can be the one to help them do that.

How much bulk can you get for $100? Well most larger vendors at Grands Prix only pay $3 per thousand, so you’re going to want to beat that to at least be an attractive option. I personally pay $4 per thousand as long as it’s a mix of commons and uncommons, mostly English, and near mint. I know, I’m a stickler for details. If you have an out ready and waiting, you can pay $5 per thousand, like Xemit, in order to aggressively accumulate as much bulk as possible. At that point, though, people will start bringing you more bulk than you can handle. Remember that we’re on a budget here and only want as much as we can handle without having infinite number of people try to overload us. Let’s stick to $4 per thousand.

So that’s 25,000 cards, assuming we do decide to burn all of our allowance on non-rare bulk. What do we do with that many cards? Well, first, we pick them. I’m not going to go over how to pick because that’s another five articles by itself, and a lot of picking ability just comes down to first-hand experience. I will go over one of my favorite ways to get rid of bulk though, and that’s the ever so useful Craigslist.

Easily Movable Objects

Untitled

The above picture is my personal listing, which reminds me that I need to update it because it’s about to expire. My rules are very clear, and my customers knows exactly (well not exactly, because it’s 1000 randomized cards, but you get the point) what they’re getting. I realize now that I’m writing this that if you want to mirror my strategy exactly, then you need to invest a bit more in additional 1000-count boxes, but you don’t really have to use the white BCW boxes. You can use old Fat Pack boxes (they hold around 600 cards each), empty cardboard booster boxes, or even make your own out of scrap cardboard.

Did you notice that my binders, pick boxes, and that 12K-count card house are in the picture? That’s not on accident. Non-competitive players who buy your bulk commons and uncommons want to make their decks better, and you can use your own personal collection to sell cards out of to help them with that goal. This is why I believe combining bulk rares with your C/U is ultimately the best starting point, because you give your customers so much more cards per booster pack than they would have experienced at Wal-mart, and they even get to customize their decks before dropping the cash.

Alright, so let’s say that instead of buying just 25K in bulk, we only found 15K and spent $60. We also picked up a hundred or so bulk rares from BFZ and Khans block and spent $10, leaving us $30 or so for random cheap singles that we might happen to come across. We throw up a Craigslist ad and get a hit, someone looking to return to the game with three other friends without breaking the bank. If we sell them 10K of the bulk and 30 of the rares, we get $76 assuming we sell bulk rares at five for a dollar, like I do. Now we have $106, 15k left, and 70 or so rares, and that’s assuming we picked the bulk clean and found literally nothing. Simple math aside, you can see where we start to ride the value train and grow a collection. If we rinse and repeat this process several times, we can start grabbing singles that are worth selling on eBay, Facebook, and TCGplayer.

End Step

While we’re on the topic of bulk rares, sometimes you end up getting lucky once a rotation happens when you re-dig through your boxes of cards you once paid a dime for several months ago. I managed to find seven copies of Hidden Dragonslayer in my white bulk rare box, and that’s a multiplier you’d be hard-pressed to find anywhere else. The same thing happened with Crackling Doom and Mantis Rider, so be on the lookout for potentially playable bulk rares from BFZ that could do the same. I certainly don’t hate buying Blight Herder or Felidar Sovereign for dimes if you can find competitive players looking to pawn off the remnants of their non-Gideon lottery tickets to support trading for your fetch lands.


 

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY