Penny Stocks of Tarkir

It’s been a minute since I’ve had a regular article! Thanks for sticking with me. I had to skip a week due to covering the Pro Tour in Vancouver, and last week I had an impromptu article on fetch lands take over my normal spot thanks to the breaking news (which I’m really proud of how the team here covered). Anyway, we’re back to normal this week, and this topic is one I’ve had in mind for a bit and I think is a fun (and profitable) one: penny stocks!

What Are Penny Stocks?

Basically, in the “real world” a penny stock is exactly that: a stock that costs you only pennies to buy but can provide big percentage gains as a result of having such a low buy-in. You make your money with volume, and they’re attractive options for casual investors.

Magic’s penny stocks are much the same. While we have to adjust the definition slightly—I’ve chosen to include cards up to $2—the theory holds, and every year we seemingly see something from this category of cards break out and subsequently shoot up in price. A couple years ago it was Desecration Demon and Nightveil Specter. We see something like this almost every year, and I don’t think this one will be an exception.

So let’s dig in.

Mantis Rider

Mantis Rider

Believe it or not, this little bug has fallen all the way to fifty cents. This thing was nearly $8 at one point!

And while some Jeskai builds have sat this guy on the bench in favor of more burn spells, that won’t necessarily be an option after rotation. Much of the deck’s core will stay in the format to keep it strong, but enough rotates to make room for Mantis Rider again—not to mention that versions of the deck still play this thing as a four-of and do well today.

At near-bulk status, this is a must-have. You’re out nothing if it misses, but the gains could be huge.

Savage Knuckleblade

Savage Knuckleblade

Another card that has seen Standard success but is currently 50 cents. Temur has a lot of tools post-rotation, even if it’s a little out of the limelight now, and between this and the next card on this list, there’s a lot of reason to think the deck could be poised to find a place in the format. With playsets of this card available for a single dollar, I don’t know how you can pass this up right now, even if it means taking a flyer on a fringe deck.

Rattleclaw Mystic

Rattleclaw Mystic

I’ve written about this card before, but I’ll repeat it now: this is the best mana-ramp creature in Standard after Sylvan Caryatid leaves. It’s been slowing trending up but still clocks in under $2, and there’s not way this little guy won’t see continued Standard play next season. I love this as a pickup.

Surrak Dragonclaw/Sagu Mauler

Surrak Dragonclaw

Remember how I said Temur could be poised to break out? These are a few of the cards that make it possible. Sagu Mauler is actually bulk while Surrak is a dollar, but both of these are 6/6 creatures for five mana, which is conveniently easy to achieve a turn early thanks to Rattleclaw Mystic. Both of these could flame out into nothing, but both have great upside in the weeks following Rotation.

Sagu Mauler

Utter End

Utter End

Sure, there are lots of better options for removal available now, but that won’t be the case forever. Utter End is as flexible as you want, and while it is expensive in a gameplay sense at four mana, it’s super cheap in a fiscal sense at 75 cents. It’s possible the Game Day promos are a better play here, but the lowest risk certainly rests with the regular copies.

Shaman of the Great Hunt

Shaman of the Great Hunt

This thing saw a little fringe play upon its release, but has since fallen off the map. As a mythic from a small set, there’s definitely solid upside here, though be aware you’re taking a super speculative route with this one. It’s a very strong curve-topper for aggressive decks, but the red decks of the format don’t lack that even after rotation, and the decks that can make use of the final ability may not need it, either. Still, the price upside on this is what makes it worth a look, even if it never quite gets there.

Outpost Siege

Outpost Siege

We already see this Siege get a ton of sideboard play, and there’s no reason to expect that won’t continue or that the card may even move to main decks after rotation. I don’t fully understand why this is under a dollar given all that, but it’s cheap enough to warrant a spot on this list. After all, sometimes the market is just slow to react: Dromoka’s Command is all over the place and yet is only $2. Sometimes if something seems wrong, it’s not because you’re missing something, it’s because it is wrong.

While we’re at it, if you want to talk bulk rare Sieges, Frontier Siege could be huge in ramping to eldrazi and is only 50 cents. Just saying.

Surrak, the Hunt Caller

Surrak, the Hunt Caller

Dragons of Tarkir offers us fewer options than the other sets in the block, both because it’s a set that wasn’t drafted a ton (a large set but never drafted alone), and because there are already a number of expensive cards floating over the arbitrary $2 mark. Still, there are a couple cards worth mentioning, and the smaller Surrak is one of them.

This saw a little play upon its release., the stats are solid (trades with Siege Rhino), and the ability is good and not that difficult to turn on. At 75 cents, it’s worth having at least a playset of these for yourself. Remember, ramping into eldrazi and having the ability to give them haste could very well be a thing we’re concerned about in three months.

Dragon Whisperer

Dragon Whisperer

Red decks still have a lot of gas post-rotation, but with a few spots opening up, we could see the Whisperer slip in. It’s both an acceptable two-drop and a way to sink some late-game mana into a powerful effect. I’m not a huge fan necessarily, but as a mythic, the upside is definitely there.

Icefall Regent

Icefall Regent

Another dragon that has seen competitive play in the past. It peaked over $4 and could possible find itself a home again post-rotation. At just over a dollar, it earns a spot on our list, even if it seems like a long-shot.

Wrapping Up

I realize I’ve thrown a lot of cards at you, and it’s a certainty that not all of these will hit either play-wise or financially. I realize that, but I view my job as a writer to give you the options and my thoughts on them and leave it to you to make your own decisions.

I’m sure there are cards on this list I like more than some of you do, and undoubtedly you have favorites that I’m not sold on. Regardless, these are the cards that most fit the profile of “super-inexpensive card to break out post-rotation,” and all of these offer a chance to get ahead of what you think the Standard metagame will look like in a few months.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Conditional Value

“I just want the cheapest copy you have. It’s for personal play, and I’m just trying to build the deck on a budget.”

–Probably one of my local customers

Man, I misuse quotations a lot. You wouldn’t know this if I didn’t tell you, but I didn’t actually  document that quote from some local guy I know. I mean, people have said similar stuff to me over the years, but I probably shouldn’t use actual quotation marks for it.

Anyway, what have we got to write about this week? Fetches? Boring. From the Vault: Lack of Linvala I really don’t care. I’d rather continue on my track as a brilliant comedy writer who basically wrote A Modest Proposal in MTG finance form (it’s right freaking here, for those who haven’t read it). As much as I’d love to continue writing satire and reading the comments, I do kind of get paid to provide useful and actionable financial information about our lovable little economy. I’m hopping back to more of a Finance 101 topic this week, where we’ll go over card conditions and why you shouldn’t write off buying and selling slightly played (SP), moderately played (MP), and heavily played (HP) cards.

Tell Me More

Let’s go back to that opening made-up quote. This more often applies to Legacy, Modern, or EDH than Standard, where the prices on dual lands, fetches, and older staples are symbolic of there not being enough to go around. Not all of the original dual lands have withstood the past twenty years of wear, and the ones that have been used as sandpaper have a price tag to show it. As a result of this, players on a budget who just care about the end result of finishing their decks are more often than not willing to sacrifice card condition to complete that goal.

Take a look at this Tundra, for example: it was one of the first dual lands I ever picked up, and I paid approximately 50 percent of retail for it, because it looks like someone smoked a cigarette directly onto the card for two days straight. (Seriously. The pictures below don’t capture just how yellow the card is.)

smoke tundra 2 smoke

“Yes, DJ. Used merchandise sells for cheaper than brand new stuff. That’s obvious. Why are you telling me this?”

Well, Mr. Stereotypical Devil’s Advocate Who So Many MTG Financiers Invoke in Their Articles, I’ll tell you a few things that you can use to take advantage of in the field of less-than-NM cards.

tweet

StarCityGames.com gets a lot of flak for having singles that are  often priced slightly higher than the rest of the internet, but I’ve never seen a more strict grading system in action when ordering cards from the company. Last year, I ordered 40 copies of Ghave, Guru of Spores from SCG. Ten of those were NM and 30 were SP, and I paid 50 cents less on each of the SP copies. When the cards arrived, I couldn’t even tell that some of them were SP. I ended up grading around half of them as NM, and sold several on TCGplayer and out of my local display case as NM with no complaints.

If you’re ever looking to go deep on a particular spec target, I highly recommend checking out the SP and MP sections of SCG. My local customers will tell you that I’m a tough grader, and even I had trouble finding marks on the cards that would justifiy them being slightly played. Another side benefit of ordering from SCG will be that you’ll be guaranteed to have your order shipped to you, with no concern over cancellation or shipping worries.

On the Other Hand…

Let’s say you have a card that you graded as NM, and you throw it up on TCGplayer. You sell the card, package it up, ship it out, you know the drill. You’re happy to have a sale. However, you get a message about a week later. The buyer is unhappy with the condition of the card because he found a nick or two that he believes knocks it down to SP. Now they want a refund—either a partial return on their purchase for the condition or a full refund with them shipping the card back to you. Sometimes they’re correct, and sometimes they’re just being too critical of a grader. Neither of those choices are very appealing though, and unfortunately, there’s not a whole lot you can do about it.

However, I’ve never had anyone counterclaim my grading of SP or worse cards. The line in the sand between SP and MP can often be blurry, and I’ve definitely listed some cards on TCGplayer as SP that some people might argue as being MP. Even so, buyers have never messaged me about it. They purchased the card expecting some amount of wear, and were satisfied with their purchase costing less than an otherwise minty version would have run them. If you err on the safe side and list it as SP, you’ll remove most picky graders from the equation and not suffer a huge loss in the process. I’m not suggesting to list this thing…

damdam2

…as “SP” and cross your fingers hoping that you don’t get hate mail, but you can probably get away with posting it as HP instead of just straight up “damaged.”

A Rough Guideline

If you’re new to Magic or to the seller’s side of the game, I recommend checking out TCGplayer’s condition guide for grading. While I think it might be a little bit too strict on the definition of LP or MP, it certainly gets the job done if you’re trying to successfully sell on TCGplayer or eBay.

Workhorse

Only the NM Shall Pass

When trying to sell off SP and worse cards, it’s important to remember that some businesses don’t allow you to trade or sell them. PucaTrade is a website where a lot of heated discussion over condition takes place. Some users don’t take the time to read the requirements of sending a card, and don’t understand that unless notifying their trade partner beforehand, it is not okay to ship out cards that are SP or worse condition while expecting the full point value.

StrikeZoneOnline is a vendor with a buylist that only accepts NM cards, and grades extremely strictly. If you send cards that are even close to questionable on condition, StrikeZone will send you back the cards that they rejected and remove the cost of shipping from your payment amount. If you’re an inexperienced buylister and ship to them expecting to get a simple “condition discount” like CardKingdom offers, then you’ll end up very disappointed. StrikeZone will almost always pay top dollar on foils if you keep your eye out on their graph line on MTGPrice, but you need to be sure that there’s absolutely no clouding, smudging, or edge wear at all before you send the company cards. Interestingly enough, I’ve found StrikeZone’s grading system to be much more lax in person when I sit down to sell to them at Grands Prix. I don’t know if this is because it’s harder to be strict when you have someone sitting across from you to dispute your grading, but I’ve definitely shipped the company SP cards in person and been paid in full.

Everything Comes Back to Cube/Commander

It seems like every time I write an article, there’s at least some mention of Commander or Cube. These two formats allow for some of the most unique personal expression in Magic, and have some of the more interesting house rules or restrictions when building, so it’s no wonder that financiers can end up finding unique ways to cater to these types of players. I once attended an SCG Open and spectated a draft where a player had a cube composed of entirely HP or worse non-foil cards.

He didn’t want to pay the full price to obtain his otherwise expensive cube, so he decided to make a game out of building the cube itself, while at the same time helping the cube be more affordable. The Jace, the Mind Sculptor in that cube looked like it had been used to paint somebody’s driveway, and certain text boxes weren’t even visible anymore. However, he proudly explained that he had only paid $40 to a vendor that was dying to get rid of it, as he ticked up the loyalty on a card who’s initial loyalty placement in the bottom right had been peeled away at some point.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor

If you’re trying to build a budget cube without dropping the power level to commons and uncommons only, then this might be your way to go. Challenge yourself to only include cards that you find in the parking lot, or something to that effect, and you’ll be done in no time. While I’ve never actually seen someone do the same with a Commander deck, it could certainly be done, and it would be a much cheaper alternative that comes with a story every time you sit down to play it.

End Step (NSFL)

If you’re a fellow Redditor and looking to see some of the most destroyed cards that Magic has to offer, I recommend indulging in MTGgore. While a “flip it or rip it” phase seems to have taken over a little bit, there’s some sort of sick pleasure obtained from looking at picture of a Legacy deck that just went through the wash. It’s like watching a dumpster fire: there’s no value to it, but you just can’t look away.

 

MTGFinance: What We’re Buying & Selling This Week (Aug 10/15)

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It has occurred to us at MTGPrice that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when and why our writing team actually puts our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such running this weekly series breaking down what we’ve been buying and selling each week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought for personal use without hope of profit. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we we’ve been up to this week:

Buying Period: Aug 2nd – Aug 10th, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

This week I’m touring Bulgaria and getting kicked out of Turkey for making too much sense, but I’m still working on my deal to sell the Super Collection, and I’ve bought a few more copies of some cards that represented good short and mid term opportunities.

BOUGHT

  • 5x Evolutionary Leap @ $11/per
  • 2x Scalding Tarn @ $50/per
  • 4x Verdant Catacombs @ $35/per

SOLD (Pucatrade) 

  • 2x Scalding Tarn @ $80.92
  • 1x Verdant Catacombs @ $62.14

Leap is still on my mid-term acquisitions list because, as I’ve mentioned before, I see it getting busted eventually and winning something in Modern. The ZEN fetches were a common flip for MTGFinance folks that were paying attention last week as the news came out on the Mark Rosewater blog that we would not see them in Battle for Zendikar. I was able to out a few already via Pucatrade and would ship more if I wasn’t already holding 1000+ points that need to get traded for a juicy high end target before I restock. I expect these to float lower gradually on the perception that their reappearance is only delayed rather than cancelled and that they will be $10 cards by summer 2016.

I’ll be visiting one of the only MTG stores in Bulgaria next week, so watch for that report.

Douglas Johnson (@RoseofThorns)

“Bought on Wednesday at around 4PM at a nearby LGS, hours after the announcement of the reprint delay. I’m actively working on flipping these out asap:”

5x Misty Rainforest @34 each
9x Verdant Catacombs @37 each
7x Marsh Flats @25 each
6x Scalding Tarn @50 each

 

Jim Casale (@Phrost_)

BOUGHT

  • Foil windswept heath @ 4787 pucapoints
  • 2x foil fulminator mage @ 3494 pucapoints /per
  • 12x ghostfire blade @ 52 pucapoints /per
  • 2x foil dispel (rtr) @ 525 pucapoints /per

SOLD

  • 4x demonic pact @ $15/per

SOLD (Puca)

  • 8x ghostfire blade @ 112 pucapoints/copy

Jim says:

“The weekend flip of ghostfire blade has been my biggest success.  Moving cards for smaller margins on puca has worked out well for me thus far because of the minimal overhead (read: no fees) for doing the transactions.  It has been a great place for me to trade stamps for foil fetchlands basically.”

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

ADVERTISEMENT: Get the Cube Starter Bundle with the 3rd Edition Grimoire Deck Box, the brand new Grimoire Deck Box designed specifically for the red mage in you.

PROTRADER: The Naval Archives

I’ve got boat puns for days. You can’t escape the boat puns. It’s like the boat puns are a boat and you’re just some guy in an inner tube. Nice inner tube, idiot. I’ve got a whole navy of puns.

You know what’s even better than boat puns, besides “nothing”? Making money. Dolla dolla bills, y’all! I mean, if you want to make money in larger quantities than single dollars, that’s on you. You don’t want to end up like Pablo Escobar, spending six grand a month on rubber bands to hold all of your money. If you used hundreds, you could get that down to $60 a month, which is way more reasonable. Or you could reinvest that cash in some sicko EDH staples and make your money work for you.

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