We All Lose at Pack Wars

By: Cliff Daigle

We are about two months away from what is likely to be the biggest Grand Prix ever. Three sites worldwide, a format of Modern Masters 2015 sealed, and a cap of 10,000 players, of which 4,000 have already preregistered.

Las Vegas is a town that can handle such a crowd. That’s not the issue at all. It wasn’t an issue in 2013 when the Electric Daisy Carnival was in town the same weekend. There is no worry about finding a hotel, even with a holiday weekend involved.

My concern is that what you’re going to be spending to play in side events is not going to be a good return on your money.

Specifically, I’m talking about the lottery ticket that is opening booster packs.

There are instances where packs are worth it, but mostly, you’re gambling and losing…a philosophy that leads to casinos making billions off of the hopeful.

For me, and for you, opening packs is almost always a money loser.

I want to take five examples from Magic’s history and examine the value involved before making my case about Modern Masters 2015.

Case #1: Dragons of Tarkir

This is the new set, containing the new toys and the hot tech. Let’s say we can get a box for $100 even, including shipping and tax, a number that works out to roughly $2.75 per pack.

As of this writing, there are 26 rares and mythics that beat that price, and the set is only a few weeks into being sold.

Here’s the issue, though: there are 68 rares and mythics in the set, giving you a 38% chance of getting your money back per pack.

Let me put this a different way for you: You could buy a playset of Thunderbreak Regent, a playset of Dragonlord Atarka, and have enough for a set of Surrak, the Hunt-Caller…or you could buy a box that potentially has none of those.

Yes, you’ll get some foils, but the variance is not in your favor there either.

Case #2: Khans of Tarkir

How about Khans? There’s fetches, and Siege Rhinos, and lots more!

Well…no. Not really. As an in-print set, let’s say we get our box price down to $90. That’s $2.50 per pack, but as the set page shows, only 16 cards beat that price! At $2.62, one of them is the uncommon Monastery Swiftspear, so it doesn’t count. So 15 out of 68 means we have a 22% chance of making our money back with the rare.

Case #3: Modern Masters 2011

This set had the second-highest MSRP of any booster (remember, the Alara block all-foil packs were sold for $15!) at $7, and had a guaranteed foil in each pack. Currently, a box of 24 packs can be had for about $375, a price per pack of $15.60.

Of the 68 rares and mythics, a mere 13 beat that price. Elspeth, Knight-Errant is not pricey enough to earn your money back! Your success rate for nonfoils is 19%.

Case #4: Rise of the Eldrazi

Widely regarded as a blast to draft, this also has a host of expensive cards. The boxes go for about $600 plus shipping, giving us a pack price of roughly $17.

Only seven of the rares and mythics in the set beat that price, giving you a success rate of ten percent.

Case #5: Revised/3rd edition

Revised boosters for $50! As someone who bought lots of these for three bucks, half a Benjamin for one is stealing. It does not matter if you buy at the single rate, or the box rate of about $1800. Even if you got lucky on eBay and got a box for $1500, you’re still scratching a lottery ticket. There are exactly 10 cards worth more than $25 in the set, and no surprise, they are the duals.

Compounding the problem is that this edition has nearly twice as many rares as modern sets do: 121 of them, giving you a success rate of twelve percent.

One other note: don’t you dare buy loose packs, especially online. Box mapping is totally a thing and you will never ever snag one of those pricey mythics, and the foils will be looted out as well with use of a highly accurate scale.

For Revised and older, the packs don’t need to be mapped. The plastic of the booster is just translucent enough to allow someone a peek at the card located at the top of the stack if it has been slid up a little.

So what can we take away from all of this? Well, it’s clear that the best success rate is right now, with the newest set. Best, though, is still no guarantee, since it’s still 60/40 that you will lose money buying a booster pack and opening it.

This is going to be my philosophy with Modern Masters 2015, especially as the packs are $10 each. It’s possible that at first, there’s lots of $10 rares, and maybe by the time of GP Vegas, that will still be the case.

However, the more packs that get opened, the more the values will decrease as the supply goes up. This is a four-day event, and it seems reasonable to expect that vendors will be lowering their buy prices accordingly at the event as time goes on. So even if they are worth it at first, they won’t be for long.

I’m not saying you should never open packs, as you’re often paying for an experience. Some stores or events have $10 drafts, or Half Price Sealed type of things. Going to GP Vegas is going to be quite a time, and likely there will be some incredible stories. I encourage you to go and have that experience, but when it comes to calculating the value of the events (especially $75 side event sealed!) keep in mind that value is not always equal.


 

Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir: Day 1 Coverage

Day 1 Wrap-up: After 5 rounds of Standard, a few things are crystal clear. Firstly, the format has NOT been solved and remains extremely diverse. Secondly, if there’s a new card that is present in a ton of different decks, and often as a 4-of, that card is Deathmist Raptor. I missed this card entirely during preview season, but I’m now thinking it can hit $25-$30 and make buy-in at the current price on sets worthwhile. Den Protector is also making moves today, and to a lesser extent the cards from the ‘Flayer deck, but my money is on Raptor to jump if it makes Top 8 in multiple decks.

Standard Round 5 (Round 8)

12:59pm: PVD (Esper Control) vs. Craig Wescoe (Ojutai Bant)

Wescoe is running an entirely new archtype in Ojutai Bant, with 2 copies of the Dragonlord Ojutai. Also features Haven of the Spirit Dragon, Surrak, the Hunt Caller and Mastery of the Unsee. Um, I’m in love. Wescoe took first game with deck engine running hot. Won 2nd game too. Awesome.

Standard Round 4 (Round 7)

12:35 pm: Den Protector run is real. It’s jumped from $1.50 to $4 already today.

12:18 pm: Metagame for the tournament breaks down as follows:

  • Red Aggro: 47 (11.5%)
  • Abzan Aggro: 41 (10.0%)
  • Red-Green Dragons: 36 (8.8%)
  • Blue-Black Control: 32 (7.8%)
  • Abzan Control: 28 (6.9%)
  • Green-White Devotion: 22 (5.4%)
  • Jeskai Aggro: 21 (5.1%)
  • Jeskai Tokens: 21 (5.1%)
  • Sidisi-Whip: 19 (4.7%)
  • Abzan Midrange: 16 (3.9%)
  • Green Devotion with Red: 15 (3.7%)

12:15 pm: Narset Transcendent on camera in Valdivias’ Esper Control, facing Ancona (Abzan Control). Dragonlord Ojutai joins the board and Valdivia takes the game.

12:13 pm: Rade plays a Thunderbreak Regent on camera for the first time today. Wook combos off again to put in doubt the possibility that R/G dominates the event.

11:45 am: Olle Rade (!) on Red/Green Dragons vs. Nam Sung Wook on Jeskai Combo. Wook takes Game 1, comboing off from the razors edge of doom.

Standard Round 3 (Round 6)

11:05am: Strength of the Fallen just took down Turtenwald and earned a Deck Tech as a result.

11:01am: Elspeth featuring prominently in the Chapin/Ancona Abzan mirror match as well. Chapin loses on a technicality, dulling the presence of Ajani, Mentor of Heroes on board.

10:55 am: Madden scoops to Elspeth in Game 2, demonstrating amply that the Iron Lady is not done ruling Standard quite yet.

10:47 am: Froelich goes to 6-0 on the back of Jeskai Ascendancy. Why is this busted card still just $2? Could easily be $6 in the fall as new combo pieces appear, though losing Caryatid could hurt at least one build.

10:21 am: Owen Turtenwald (Abzan Control) vs. Steve Madden (Strength Devotion). Madden is running the full 4 copies of Strength of the Fallen. As an uncommon with narrow applications, steer clear of this as a spec, but yeah, this Standard season should go down in MTG history as the best one ever. Chord of Calling just made an appearance pulling out Nylea to win Game 1 for Madden over the former Player of the Year.

Standard Round 2 (Round 5)

10:18 am: 5-0 players include Froelich, Chapin, Floch, Rubin and Sullivan.

9:46 am: Parke puts Torrent Elemental into play in game 2 to complete his presentation of outsider mythics and rares. Den Protector comes out from Parke again to good effect. I’m in for 12 copies at $1.25 in case this goes somewhere as the tournament progresses. (This is not wise behavior btw.) Elspeth pushes through to put Manfield on top for Game 2. This match ended in a draw.

9:31 am: Osooka (sp?) is 2-0 in Standard over Josh McClane with U/B control.

9:26 am: Chapin on Abzan mid-range drops his first game.

9:23 am: Abzan Aggro piloted by Nakumura takes Game 1 from Willy Edel on Whip. Nakumuras’ deck was designed by Brian Kibler, and includes Dromoka’s Command, God’s Willing and Boon Satyr. Edel is also using Sidisi, Undead Vizier in his Whip deck.

9:13 am: Seth Manfield (Atarka Abzan) vs. Jamie Parke (Chromantiflayer). Parkes’ deck notably features Deathmist Raptor, Soulflayer, Pharika, God of Affliction and Chromanticore. Manfield build is mid-range Abzan with Dragonlord Atarka at the top end where Hornet Queen used to reside. Were you expecting a deck with Atarka and Elspeth? Sidisi, Undead Vizier demonstrates synergies with Elspeth, Sun’s Champion in the Abzan control shell.

Parke makes effective use of 2 copies of Den Protector to return Raptor and kill spells to his advantage. Parke then causally throws down a Silumar, the Drifting Death to hold off Elspeth from dominating the board. As a follow up Chromanticore gets bestowed on to Soulflayer to create an absolutely insane multi-talented attacker and take Game 1 from Manfield.

Standard Round 1

8:35 am: Tian fails to go off fast enough in Game 3 and loses to Floch after a very slick play with Bile Blight on Floch’s own Caryatid to clear away the firebreathing tree on Tian’s side of the table.

8:09 am: Makihito Mihara vs. Shaun McLaren: Both players on Abzan control builds. Mihara notably running See the Unwritten. McLaren puts Elspeth back on stage to take control of the game and wins the match 2-0.

8:00 am: Lee Shi Tian vs. Ivan Floch: Tian is on Jeskai Ascendancy Combo. Floch is on Sidisi Whip. Tian combos off like it’s November 2014 to take Game 1 in under 5min. Thoughtseize puts Tian on the back foot in Game 2. Tian running Reviving Melody out of the sideboard but it doesn’t prevent him from failing to go off in Game 2.

7:54 am: Randy Beuhler calls our Zurgo, Dromoka’s Command and Thunderbreak Regent as the DTK money cards most likely to make an impact on the Standard format.

——————————————————————————-

Just two short months after Pro Tour: Fate Reforged and a lively Modern metagame, here we are at the doorstep of another epic battle between top Magic: The Gathering pros from across the globe. Over $250,000 USD is on the line, with the winner taking home a hefty $40,000.

As per usual, the Pro Tour weekends now feature a mix of booster draft (DTK-DTK-FRF) and constructed formats with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning, followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 3am EST.

For the MTG Finance community, the big question on all of our minds is whether any new cards from Dragons of Tarkir will break into the spotlight in Standard and push our recent specs into profitability. Will there be a chance to get in on something that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without buyers come Monday morning?

Many of the top teams have been in stealth mode for the last couple of weeks, furtively holed up in Belgian castles attempting to break a format open that has stubbornly refused to allow a single deck to dominate for the duration of an amazingly varied season.

Here are some early stories worth paying attention to:

Dance of Decks: Striving for Top 8

Perhaps a dozen decks are in play for possible dominance this weekend including all of the following to greater or lesser degrees:

  • G/R Mid-Range Dragons
  • U/B or U/W Control
  • Bant Heroic
  • Mono-Red Aggro
  • Mono-Green Devotion/Mastery
  • Mono-Blue Devotion
  • Abzan Aggro
  • Abzan Control
  • Sultai Control/Whip
  • UWR Tokens
  • UR or URw Dragon Control
  • WB or Mono-Black Warriors

With Standard starting around early Friday morning EST, the stage is set for first mover advantadge if an unexpected deck jumps out to an early lead in the hands of a reliable pilot. Which deck are you rooting for?

Dragonlord Ojutai: Prince or Pauper?

During the first week of Standard legality for Dragons of Tarkir, Dragonlord Ojutai showed up in a handful of promising control builds, but failed to make the Top 8 at any prominent events. PTDTK may well prove to be his defining moment, either establishing his role as a format defining threat or seeing him sidelined as a Tier 2 curiosity destined for occasional casual play. Most of the smart money that got in around $5 during pre-orders is already selling into the hype, as at $17 or so there isn’t much meat left on the bone. That being said, a great performance here could push this mythic rare into the $20-25 range.

Surrak, the Hunt Caller: Underrated Beatstick?

At the SCG tourney last weekend Surrak, the Hunt Caller was all over the Top 8 as an integral tool to push through damage in the Green/Red mid-range decks that seem poised to claim top spot in the evolving metagame. For those who snapped up copies around $2, a recent move to $5 could be the exit point they need, but if G/R dominates 20-50% of the top 8, there may be room to run up towards $8 for this hot legend.

 

Thunderbreak Regent: Free to Fly?

Stormbreath Dragon and Thunderbreak Regent are swinging through the skies more and more regularly as the G/R decks test their capacity for ascension in Standard.  Regularly put to work as a 4-of, the Regent is already sky high pricewise as a $12+ rare. I’d steer clear of this guy, but keep in mind that further success makes the DTK Event Deck (which includes Thunderbreak Regent, Surrak, Yasova, Outpost Siege and 2x Rending Volley) a total free roll.

Whisperwood Elemental: Fading Fast?

Peaking near $20 just a few weeks back, this central presence in the Master of the Unseen devotion archetype has fallen back towards $12 as the metagame shifts away from the only deck in the format capable of regularly generating hundreds of life. With another year left in the tank before rotation, a poor showing at this Pro Tour could be a good opportunity to get in on this guy, as his raw power level suggests fresh opportunities may arise to abuse him come the fall.

Stay tuned for Round by Round MTG Finance coverage of Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

The Myth of Making Money

A few weeks ago, I was lucky enough to have a weekend away from work, and I decided to spend it at SCG Dallas with a few friends. We headed down on Saturday afternoon, and while we had vague plans of playing in the Modern 5k on Sunday, we all knew the trip was mostly just to hang out and have a good time.

And good times were had, no doubt. But that’s not the point of this story. While we did spend some time on the floor, it was mostly to trade. Specifically, I was on a mission: to find the last two foils I needed for my Modern Merfolk deck: a foil Oboro, Palace in the Clouds and a foil Mikokoro, Center of the Sea. They may not look like much, but they’re lands that make blue mana that don’t die to Choke… At least that’s what I thought. As you may have noticed, Mikokoro doesn’t actually make blue mana, and it turns out the card I needed all along was Minamo, School at Water’s Edge. Somehow I got confused and mixed myself up and missed out on a chance to trade for one.

Anyway, I did manage to find an Oboro, and trading was had, with the usual rifling through each other’s binders and making small talk while we did so. My trade partner made a stop on a particular page of my binder, the one filled with a dozen or so Scourge of the Throne.

scourgeofthethrone

“That must be nice to have those, huh?” he prodded, referring of course to the small spike that Scourges went through a month or so ago.

“I guess so,” I replied.

And on paper, it is nice. I bought mine at $7 or so to fill a few orders at the LGS where I sell cards, and I grabbed a handful of extras in anticipation of Dragons of Tarkir. And it worked out great! After all, the card moved from $7 to $14 after I bought them. Must be nice, huh?

Today, those Scourges buylist for around $8. If I were to sell them, I would make about 75 cents a copy after shipping charges.

Not exactly paying the rent with that.

The Conversation That Started It All

“Marianne: So how did it go?

Me: It was okay. I went 3-1 playing, but I made like $30 trading!

Marianne: Great, so are you taking me out to dinner tomorrow night? Or are you going to buy me shiny things?

Me: Well, it’s more like “theoretical money.”

Marianne: So macaroni and cereal again?

Me: (sigh) Yeah, but I really like those!”

That’s what I wrote on December 22, 2010, when I was a dirt-poor sophomore in college just trying to put together some cards to play FNM (writing this makes me feel old). I’ve contributed a few things to the realm of “MTG finance” writing, but I consider the articulation of this concept the most important thing I’ve ever done in the field. Remember that in those halcyon days of 2010, smartphones weren’t a thing, trading was a great way to make value, Marianne and I weren’t yet married, and I loved eating macaroni and cereal (one of those four things still hasn’t changed, and I can report that we’re approaching our third wedding anniversary).

Another thing hasn’t changed. Then, like now, everyone wants to brag about their successful spec. “I just knew this card was going up!” people constantly shouted. Then when you see their binders full of the newly-expensive card (probably some garbage like Consuming Vapors, which was all the rage back then) and showing it off in the store. They would be so proud of themselves for getting in on the hot spec beforehand, and they would revel in all the money they made.

Twelve months later, I’d see that exact same binder when they came to sell to me, their Consuming Vapors now bulk again.

Tell me, did they really make any money?

The Myth of Making Money

Nothing, I repeat, nothing matters until you out a card. Whether that’s to a buylist or eBay for cash, or to another player in a trade, there is a hell of a lot more to making money on Magic cards than simply the price you acquire it for (your “in” price).

Your “out” price (the number you ultimately move it for) is even more vital. The difference between those two numbers (after shipping/fees of course) is the money you made on those cards. That’s it. It doesn’t matter how high or low the price went in the interim. If you didn’t move it when the price was higher, your $8 Consuming Vapors may as well have been $100 for all the good it did you.

It’s a lesson I learned the hard way in 2011, when I decided to speculate on Primeval Titan after the banning of Jace and Stoneforge Mystic in Standard. With the Caw-Blade menace leaving the format, things seemed wide open for the decks abusing Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle to return with force to the forefront. And I was quick to the party, getting my copies before the price predictably rose.

The only problem? I was racing the clock. A known reprint was coming in Magic 2012, and I was late in getting my copies listed and shipped. In the end I lost about $20 despite being “ahead” of the curve when the price spiked.

The Myth of Making Money™ strikes again.

It’s a lesson that people new to the finance scene seem to have to learn the hard way. Travis Allen went through the same experience last year (and made out better than I did), and wrote a great article about the experience.

The Myth of Making Money™. It strikes us all.

But it only has to strike once. Or, for those of you reading this today, hopefully not at all.

Avoiding the Trap

There are definitely a few ways to mitigate the risks that cost Travis and I so much.

Temper Your Expectations

First, have realistic expectations. If you see an $8 card and believe it can push $11 or $12, think twice before you buy into it. Using Scourge of the Throne as an example, it took the card nearly doubling up for me to break even on a buylist. And the truth is, if you’re speculating on a card to resell, buylists are likely going to be your best option if you bought more than a playset or two. Know that whatever you buy, you need to reasonably expect a double-up before you can expect to get your money back after shipping.

Trading

Trading for cards is a good way to eliminate some of the upfront costs, given that the “true value” of your $8 retail card is closer to $4 or $5 in cash. If you can use that card to pick up the $8 card you want to spec on, you’re getting yourself a much better deal than buying in it for actual dollars.

Go Deep

If you feel strongly enough about a card to move in on it, do it for enough copies to make it worth it. Having a playset of a card you knew was going to strike it big is great, and you’ll have those to play with, but if you do feel strongly, don’t be afraid to go deep. You have to risk it to get the biscuit, after all.

Account for All Costs

When I mention the costs here, I’m sure the first thing that came to your mind was postage. And it’s true, that is a major cost. But it’s far from the only one and, I would argue, not even the most important.

Your time is a cost, and your time is worth money. Spending time researching and buying a spec, or trading into it, is time you aren’t spending playing Magic or hanging out with your girlfriend or delivering pizzas for some extra cash. If you’re going to look toward this as a way to make a little money, you must absolutely account for the cost of your time.

Do It for the Story

I have one other piece of advice when it comes to speculating.

I’ve explained the Myth of Making Money™ today, and I hope it helps you understand that making money on “MTG finance” is not anywhere near as easy as some people paint it. It’s work, and it can be hard work with little reward. In almost all cases, your time is better spent delivering pizzas if you’re looking for some extra money.

But Magic can give you something that Pizza Hut can’t.

The memories.

Nobody is retiring off of money they made flipping some Magic cards over the weekend. But you may be able to foil out pieces of your Commander deck by doing so. And when someone comments on your cool signed foil Fifth Dawn Eternal Witness, what’s a better story: that you made enough money to get them from your out-of-right-field spec on Death’s Shadows, or that you delivered some pepperonis to buy it?

One of my favorite pieces to ever write was the story of how I sold my fetch lands that I had spent years acquiring through trade. In the end, I sold them for about $25 apiece, far from the heights they would later reach. But I don’t regret the decision. It was the completion of a story a long time in the making, and it’s one I remember vividly today. Hell, even stories where things go wrong (like my 94 Splinterfrights) are worth it for the story later. I keep that pile on my desk as a reminder that we can all screw up, no matter how long we’ve been doing this. Sure, I lost some money on that spec, but it’s a fun story anyway.

The Myth of Making Money™ is a vital concept for anyone getting into Magic finance to understand, and you won’t ever truly succeed in this field until you do. If you believe in a card and want to try your hand at speculating, don’t be afraid to do it. But make sure you give yourself a chance to succeed. And, for your own sake, enjoy it.

You may make some cash, or you may not make any money at all. Just make sure you make some memories along the way.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Picking Berries (and Other Cards)

Yep. We’re going with a food-themed title every week until it’s literally impossible for me to correlate Magic: The Gathering finance to food. Deal with it.

Last week, I went in a different direction than in my first two articles. Instead of force feeding you a list of various cards that I believed would be trending in either direction, I went about explaining one of the processes that I use to find cards that I think will start moving, as well as why it’s a good idea to do so.

If you’ve been a long-time follower of my writing, then you might know speculating is not my favorite method of making money from Magic (accidental alliteration is awesome! [Editor’s note: this seems like a comment should have put in]). I prefer a steady grind through buying collections and singles at buylist prices, looting through bulk commons and uncommons, then using a combination of buylisting and selling locally through my display case and word of mouth.

Give a Player a Fish… 

Instead of giving you  lists of  my personal picks from the most recent sets, I want to take a similar approach to last week. Today I’ll be teaching you about a couple of the better methods for picking (and there’s our title) your own collections of common and uncommon bulk.

As I’ve mentioned before on Brainstorm Brewery, these aren’t going to be the cards that earn you massive profits. These are the dregs of draft tables, the stuff from unpicked 5K boxes in basements, and the cards that you get asked about six months after Khans of Tarkir comes out when Johnny really wants to make a tribal warrior deck after coming back into Magic. If none of the players at Johnny’s first FNM had the playset of Chief of the Edge that he desperately needed, so you get to be Johnny’s goddamn hero for just one crisp American dollar.

…Or Cast Mystical Teachings

That’s how the old saying goes, right?

Anyway, moving on. When people used to ask me this question of, “DJ, how do I learn exactly what to pull out of these common and uncommon lots?” I used to just tell them one word: “Experience.” After all, it’s not exactly intuitive to think that five copies of the M11 version of  War Priest of Thune would be worth $0.15 each to Troll and Toad on a buylist. The card sees one-of sideboard play in Modern at most, and isn’t exactly exciting or casually appealing to Johnny.

Now I’ve realized I can add an additional two words to “experience” to make it much more fun: “and research.” Even if you’ve only been playing competitive Magic for a year or so, the tools on the internet still exist to provide you with the information that you need to have a pretty comprehensive list of commons and uncommons that you want to be picking.

thoughtpickerwitch

Different Types of Berries

The first thing you want to do is base your picks on a set of rules. You should probably make up your own determination of what you consider to be “significant,” so that picking through bulk commons and uncommons is actually worth your time. My personal cutoff is a dime, and I make exceptions for cards that I have experience with being requested often even if they’re not on a buylist. While not every card will buylist for a significant number, copies can still be kept on hand for situations like my Chief of the Blade example above.

You can also adjust that personal number based on the amount of bulk that you deal with. If you’re just pulling out picks to make your binder look a bit more buff, you probably don’t need to waste your time dragging out every single guildgate and Selesnya Charm. You’d be better off focusing on the $.50 to $1.00 cards that are actually worth putting into a trade binder—ones that competitive players will be needing for Standard and Modern decks. On the other hand, those who follow the path of Ryan Bushard and deal with 100,000 cards on a weekly basis should probably try to squeeze every ounce of value that they can, due to the fact that you’re shipping en masse to multiple buylists at once all the time.

If you can notice a theme of what cards have been picks in the past, then you can use that information to determine what types of cards you’re picking from the latest sets. I’ve made a lot of money pulling Crumbling Necropolis and its cycle of friends from Shards of Alara bulk, as well all of their respective reprints in the Commander and other supplemental products. Tri-colored decks are popular in both EDH and casual circles when given a common theme, like a mechanic to build around (I’ve helped players build something as simple as an “unearth” deck before). From this, we can make an educated guess that the Nomad Outpost cycle of KTK will continue to be worth separating from your bulk, even if the increase in print run means that the cards will be somewhat negligible to buylists in the short term.

Multicolored charms are another favorite of mine (even the bad ones like Gruul Charm). They represent versatility, and lean towards a specific clan or guild to provide casual players with a solid word or mechanic to lean on when building their synergistic decks. Even though some of the KTK charms will probably never see competitive play, I still enjoy setting them aside for later casual demand. Sometimes you’ll even get lucky and be able to buylist these for significant value. I just happened to be able to ship off a couple dozen Azorius Charms for a dime a piece to a buylist a few weeks ago, even though the card is long gone from competitive play.

Mill and discard have held strong casual ties over the past several years, and most players know that the prices of casual rares reflect that. There’s a reason that some mill cards are worth ridiculous amounts, and the powerful commons and uncommons that fit into these strategies have proven to be worth picking, even when faced with reprints. While I don’t recommend pulling out 50 copies of Tome Scour, pulling strong uncommon classics like Jace’s Phantasm won’t let you down.

If you can put yourself into the shoes of a casual player who just wants to put together a 78-card unsleeved mill deck, then go through your next set review with those eyes. If you can spot an uncommon gem that would go in those decks, that’s your signal to pick it out and wait for that person to show up on your local MTG Facebook group asking for those cards.

ProTrader Privileges

If you’re subscribed as an MTGprice Pro Trader, you can make life a lot easier, especially if you’re a budding financier looking to get into processing collections and picking bulk. You can head over to the Full List drop down under the Pro Trader section, and customize a search to pretty much whatever you want by hitting “Create a Filter.” For the purposes of this article, we’re going to want to exclude all of the rares and mythics, use a price filter that goes from $.10 to $1 billion dollars (for those foil, Phyrexian-language Tops that are just lurking in those bulk lots), and then add sets based on whatever collection you’re sorting through. That last part obviously gets much easier if you already know what you’re looking at, but asking the previous owner of the collection a few simple questions can help narrow that down for you: “What years did you play? What kind of cards and decks did you have? Do you remember what the names of the sets were when you played?”

Full List List

full list results

I searched for commons and uncommons from Innistrad block that were valued from $0 to $4, then filtered them by price. As expected, Blood Artist is a pretty obvious casual all-star, and it helps that it’s so ridiculously strong in EDH. However, we can also see all of the uncommon lords on this list, and some of the heroes of past Innistrad Standard. These are all cards that I still pick regularly when searching Innistrad block bulk, and it’s something you might want to consider if you plan on cranking up your volume. Getting $0.11 per Unburial Rites adds up over time, and it doesn’t take a whole lot of common and uncommon picks to make a month of Pro Trader worthwhile.

I actually just recently learned about that Full List feature while I was in the process of doing research for this article, and I have to say I like it a lot more than the Trader Tools version on Quiet Speculation (I have been a paying member of both websites for multiple years now, and have always used Trader Tools for my buylisting processes). Even if I wasn’t writing for this website, now that I’ve found it, I prefer the greater versatility of the MTGprice tool. The only downside is that it doesn’t show the highest buylist price for every card on the list, but I’ve requested for that feature to be added. Here’s hoping!

hopeandglory

End Step

Before I sign off for the week, I’m going to take a bit more time on this “End Step” than I normally do. If you’ve been keeping an eye on MTGstocks foil Interests page, you’ll see that this…

Nyxathidfoil

…happened. The few remaining foil copies of Nyxathid on eBay and TCGplayer were bought, and somebody decided to start relisting at $15. While the price almost immediately plummeted from that down to $10, I did manage to sell off a few copies at around that price.

I’d like to personally announce that it was not me who decided to buy out the few copies that were most readily visible on the internet in an attempt to cause an artificial spike in price on foil Nyxathids. Nor did I maliciously intend to encourage any readers of my article to buy all of those dozen or so copies. As shown by our weekly breakdown of what we’ve been doing in the market, I picked up multiple playsets through the PucaTrade website, but didn’t spend any cash “buying out” TCGplayer of the few that remained.

Nyxathid interests

Now that the foil version of the card spiked, I do not advocate buying any additional copies at the “new price” of $8 to $9. I am curious to see what happens to the non-foils, though. The non-foil copies showed up on the MTGstocks weekly Interest page at a 14 percent increase instead of two percent, so I think you should pick up non-foils if you need them for the near future—I don’t think the card is going to be getting any cheaper. Whether the non-foil follows suit to its foil counterpart is debatable, but I wouldn’t wait if you plan on playing with copies for Modern/EDH/casual/Tiny Leaders.

On another note, the Urzatron lands have been showing up repeatedly on the Interests page almost every week, and are now at least $2 across the board. While I didn’t mention these in my Hot Potatoes article, they’re a screaming candidate for Modern Masters 2015. If you’re not using extra copies, I recommend buylisting them or selling them locally.  Unless you plan on keeping the deck together until the set releases—and getting large amounts of value from playing the deck in the meantime—the time to jump ship was yesterday.

If any of you have thoughts or opinions on this week’s article, I’d love to hear them. I’m easily reachable on Facebook, Reddit, Twitter, and in the comments section below. I also usually take requests for article topics if the subject is broad enough and I’m knowledgeable enough on the subject. Thanks for reading!

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY