Danny Brown, ProTrader, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Planeswalker Finance, April 2015

April 28, 2015 Danny Brown 6 Comments

By: Danny Brown

If you’ve been around MTG finance for long, you’ve often heard that trading into Reserved List cards is a great way to lock in and grow value over time. Indeed, picking up dual lands, Force of Will, Wasteland, and other eternal staples has proven time and again to be a great way to hold value, if not make a profit.

But there’s two problems with this strategy:

Finding these types of cards in trade binders is tough.
Not everyone has the value needed to trade for big cards like this.

And let’s be real, for every Old Man of the Sea, there’s a Sorrow’s Path, and despite being on the Reserved List, you should not pick up Sorrow’s Path. I know, these are the kinds of hot takes that keep you coming back to MTGPrice every week.

Okay, so what is a new or budget-minded or just-plain-cheap mage to do? Very few people are going to trade their Legacy staples for your Sylvan Caryatids and Coursers of Kruphix, but they’re still losing value every day all the same. Maybe you can flip them into Dragonlord Silumgars and Atarka’s Commands, but those have a shelf life of their own, meaning you’re just going to be playing this same game next year.

Fetch lands are the obvious answer, but everybody touches on that fact, and just saying the same thing doesn’t make for a very interesting or informative article. And even still, it’s been shown that reprinting major lands in Standard drops their prices in a big way, so it’s not like you can just hold on to fetches forever.

So where do we look?

It’s In the Title

Look, you already know I’m talking about planeswalkers today, so I’ll quit pretending that I’m leading up to some major revelation.

Planeswalkers, you may be aware, are a casual favorite, from kitchen-table to Commander to Cube. There aren’t very many of them (only 59 by my count!), which makes them special compared to just about every other card type in the game. When they are good in eternal formats, they tend to get pretty darn expensive.

But even when they’re universally despised, they still hold a minimum amount of value. Even Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded is around $3, and nobody wants that card for any format. (True story: I will always live in shame that I lost in the finals of Avacyn Restored Game Day to a Craterhoof Behemoth–Unburial Rites deck featuring Lingering Souls and, yes, Tibalt. So I guess somebody wanted it for a tournament, shockingly.)

There are distinct categories of planeswalkers, and we’ll be grouping all 59 of them today, for posterity.

Standard Planeswalkers

Okay, this one’s easy. If you’re looking to lock in value, don’t trade for Standard planeswalkers. They are almost always fringe-playable in Standard at the least, and that helps buoy their values until rotation. The floor price almost always comes just after they rotate, so I wouldn’t mess with Standard planeswalkers until then (unless you need them to actually, like, play Standard).

There are 16 planeswalkers currently in Standard, which is kind of crazy when you consider that’s more than a quarter of all planeswalkers ever printed. There’s 10 that I believe will be available for between $4 and $5 after rotation, and significantly, never go down from there.

Ajani Steadfast
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
Chandra, Pyromaster
Elspeth, Sun’s Champion
Jace, the Living Guildpact
Kiora, the Crashing Wave
Liliana Vess
Sorin, Solemn Visitor
Xenagos, the Reveler

Only Jace, the Living Guildpact might go below $4 of these—that guy may indeed end up being buddies with Tibalt. All these others are trade targets at $5, in my opinion. They’ll hold that $5 in perpetuity, and many of them will gain value over time. (We’ll look at past examples of this effect later in this article).

There’s an exception to buying planeswalkers while in Standard, and that’s that there’s almost always a planeswalker that hits it big leading up to and through rotation. We saw it with Jace, Architect of Thought a couple years ago, then both Xenagos, the Reveler and Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver last year. The potentials in current Standard for this type of growth are:

Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker
Sarkhan Unbroken
Narset Transcendant
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
(Sorin, Solemn Visitor)

Sorin is parenthetical because I mentioned him above, but with a current price of around $10, he could fit in this boat. Really, though, all of these cards are a little more expensive than Jace, Xenagos, or Ashiok, and I just don’t feel like any is a great buy right now. At around $8, Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker comes closest, but I’d like to see it around $6 before I pull any triggers. It’s not like the card has been blowing up the tournament scene in the last year.

Ugin is interesting, as Karn Liberated‘s history is going to impact the Spirit Dragon’s trajectory in a big way. I don’t believe we will ever see Ugin below $15, and that will likely not be until rotation. Being from a small, middle set means the supply is particularly low, so I would not be surprised to see this outstrip Karn within a few years.

Finally, Garruk Apex Predator and Nissa, Worldwaker will probably not drop to the $5 point where I expect most other current Standard planeswalkers to end up. Any price under $10 for these two cards is probably a good acquisition rate, as these are powerful, evocative, popular, and in low supply. Like the last few core sets, M15 wasn’t overwhelmingly popular.

Eternally Competitive

Very few planeswalkers make it in Modern, and even fewer make it in Legacy. When they do, the price usually reflects it, although to varying degrees.

Ajani Vengeant
Dack Fayden
Elspeth, Knight-Errant
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Karn Liberated
Liliana of the Veil

It’s a very short list. Elspeth and Ajani both are between $10 and $20, but both have multiple printings to help satisfy demand. The other four or are all $25 or more, with Jace and Liliana pushing up toward $100. Dack gets most of his demand from short supply and Vintage playability, but it’s such a powerhouse in that format that it seems reasonable to add it here.

Still, though, with so few planeswalkers being good enough—and I highly doubt any in Standard will join this list expect perhaps Ugin—the next section is where things get really interesting.

“Bad” Casual Planeswalkers

I’m going to divide the rest of the 59 planeswalkers we haven’t discussed into two groups: “bad” planeswalkers and “good” planeswalkers. I’m basing this on what’s popular in Commander, Cube, and other casual formats, as well as just how frequently I see a card played anywhere. Yes, this is fairly subjective. Deal with it. Fair Trade Prices are as of April 27, 2015, and are listed next to each card.

You can certainly argue that some of these deserve to be on the “good” list, but I don’t think there’s much argument that this list closely approximates “the 15 worst planeswalkers ever printed,” give or take one or two that’s still in Standard (with the exception of Jace, Memory Adept, which just doesn’t see a lot of play because it’s too good in small-deck formats and not good enough in big-deck ones).

Note that only two of these planeswalkers are under $4 and only four are between $4 and $5. Many are over $10, some in the face of reprints. The average price of these “bad” planeswalkers is $6.81.

“Good” Casual Planeswalkers

Here are the planeswalkers most often seen in Cube, Commander, and other casual formats, plus ones that were powerhouses in their Standard formats, are liked as characters, or just otherwise popular or powerful. This is everything not mentioned in this article so far:

Here we have an average price of $8.71, just about $2 over what the “bad” planeswalkers are worth. Pulling the average down are Daretti, Scrap Savant (who Douglas Johnson called out in a recent article) and Jace, Architect of Thought, which is at a shockingly-low $2.82. Yes, this saw a Duel Deck printing, but so did several of the cards on the above list, and they didn’t ever go this low. Jace’s Duel Deck art also has the distinction of being hideous, so you would think the RTR versions would be worth a bit more.

Check out the charts for some of the above cards. Except for the ones that just rotated out of Standard, many have been increasing over the last year. Tamiyo went from $12 to $19. Koth went from $4 to $6. Nicol Bolas went from $4 to $10.

As a general rule that holds true so, so often, planeswalkers go up over time. They almost never go down, except when they rotate from Standard. Even reprints don’t devastate their prices in the same way they devastate other reprinted cards. In many ways, planeswalkers are some of the safest cheap investments you can make.

Besides Jace AOT, Garruk Relentless just seems too low. Sure, it’s not big and flashy for Commander, but it’s fantastic in Cube, only has one printing, and is the only double-sided planeswalker ever printed. For all I know, that last point could actually be a point against it, but double-faced cards really did end up going over very well (and will be back in Magic: Origins).

And the best thing about picking up rotating planeswalkers? Whether they end up in the “good” camp or the “bad” camp, they all tend to go up over time. Isn’t that awesome?

Recurring Nightmare

I’m going to revisit this topic periodically, perhaps every few months, but at least once or twice a year. Planeswalkers perform like nothing else in MTG finance, and that makes them worth a close look on a regular basis.

Have comments? Want to harangue me for calling your favorite planeswalker bad? Or do you want to point out the next hot planeswalker spec? If you have things to say, you know what to do.

Ginger Ale

Financial Leftovers: Dragons of Tarkir

April 28, 2015 Houston Whitehead

Usually I write a column called Financial Five on Brainstorm Brewery at each set release. This column highlights my top five cards worth speculating on in the new Standard environment. With MTGPrice now sponsoring BSB, I reached out and was glad to be asked to join this team of knowledgeable MTG finance juggernauts.

With so much going on, my Dragons of Tarkir (DTK) article was caught in limbo during the website transition and couldn’t post until after Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir.

I still see value in my original FF: DTK article and want to find a way to relay that experience to you. The below points aren’t me saying, “I could have told you where ‘X’s’ price was going to land.” Rather, I’m revisiting some of the things I originally thought to help us all understand price changes from a set’s prerelease to after the Pro Tour. I learn something about finance every time a new set comes out. (And for those who dislike staring at graphs, this is a price fluctuation overview of DTK.)

Original Financial Five: DTK

The prices cited below are release-day prices. Here’s what I said about the cards I called:

Blood-Chin Fanatic – $2 or less – Post Theros rotation prediction. Warriors have a lot of playable choices with the exit of Drown in Sorrow and Anger of the Gods.

Sidisi, Undead Vizier – $4 – Finding a creature to extort is not a problem in this metagame. Sidisi helps you break midrange mirrors and blocks well.

Surrak, the Hunt Caller – $4.50 – The Polukranos replacement we needed for this metagame. Perfect for Abzan Aggro and Green Devotion decks.

Stratus Dancer – $2 or less – This is an extra counter in the control mirror that pressures your opponent’s life total. It has potential in a R/U Dragons Tempo deck.

Hidden Dragonslayer – $1 – This is undervalued due to the expectation of only fitting in warriors decks, but remove the creature type and it’s removal against any opponent that plays stabilizing creatures on turn four or five.

Honorable Mentions

Icefall Regent – $2 or less – I was so close to switching this with Hidden Dragonslayer, but ultimately felt it didn’t have as much room to move up.

Den Protector – $2 – I wanted to get behind this card, but thought Tasigur was clearly better card advantage. Black and green are almost always together in today’s Standard. Clearly, I was wrong. Guess I should know more synergistic green uncommon enchantments from Journey to Nyx.

DTK That I Missed

Dragonlord Atarka – Holy cow! This is a great example of how MTG finance works with a mythic that gets played as a four-of at the Pro Tour.

Dragonlord Silumgar – I remember wanting to like him but never thought the removal-heavy nature of Standard would allow him to make waves (or flaps in his case, I guess). The amount of board control in the U/B Dragon deck converted even the more serious skeptics, though.

Price Movements & Updates

Sidisi, Undead Vizier and Surrak, Hunt Caller both moved up in advance of the Pro Tour due to lack of available product and in response to the first streamed event with DTK (a Star City Games Open, I might add).
Hidden Dragonslayer, Blood-Chin Fanatic, and Stratus Dancer stayed the same.
Den Protector and Icefall Regent went from $2 to $5 for reasons different than I had originally mentioned.
Surrak, Hunt Caller & Sidisi, Undead Vizier went back down to around $4.50 each.

Financial Opportunities Left in DTK

The whole undercosted megamorph cycle (except for Silumgar Assassin) is powerful enough to see future Standard format play.

Hidden Dragonslayer and Blood-Chin Fanatic are still safe pickup targets due to post rotation speculations (at $2 or less).

If anything bumps Atarka off her pedestal, look for a small Hornet Queen or Genesis Hydra price increase. Being rares, they won’t see a similar spike to the Dragonlord, but Hornet Queen is the only one of the two that has another printing. They both have a chance to hit $5 again.

Sarkhan Unbroken still has some time to drop, but I think $10 or less is a good place to get in at. The dual lands from the next block will hold a lot of weight in determining whether he is worthwhile. History shows Wizards like to switch back and forth between mono- or two-colored Standard and multicolored Standard. Since DTK didnt have rare duals, tri lands, or gain lands, I suspect the Theros rotation will be a multicolor format. We know that Battle for Zendikar will encourage printing unique rare lands (such as enemy fetches or Valakut-style lands) and land-mechanic synergies (like landfall). I think Sarkhan keeps a lot of potential playablilty pre-Khans/Fate Reforged rotation.

Am I thinking too far ahead? Maybe. As you’ll find out in my next article, I take some unique or unconventional approaches to trading and finance. It pays to be prepared, though.

Wrap Up

I understand this article wasn’t chock-full of financial recommendations, but I do hope it can give you a little insight on how prices behave from a set’s prerelease to after the Pro Tour.

Let my correct predictions excite you for future Financial Five articles and let my screw-ups give you an excuse to send me a tweet saying, “How did you miss that?!?!”

As always, thanks for reading.

@TNSGingerAle

Uncategorized

The Most Expensive Dragons

April 28, 2015 Guo Heng Chin 3 Comments

By Guo Heng

Today’s article is going to start off by picking up where last week’s article left off before delving into this article’s main topic – the most expensive dragons in Magic’s history – which was inspired by the first segment of this article. I wrote in-depth about Ugin, the Spirit Dragon‘s financial fate last week, and a reader wanted to know more about the future of the Ugin’s Fate alternate art Ugin, which I left out.

I did not discuss the alternate art Ugin in my analysis last week as the article was already approaching 3,600 words and I thought there would not be too many people interested in reading about the finance of an extremely rare card. After all, how many people out there owns one? Turns out I was wrong. There were indeed readers interested in the financial fate of the coveted Ugin’s Fate promo alternate art Ugin, which we shall refer to as ‘Blue Ugin’ from now on, as Ugin looks like he was in cahoots with Heisenberg in Chris Rahn’s art.

Let me start by saying that I had the chance to buy Blue Ugin for $50, but I passed it on. I thought $50 was the ceiling for Blue Ugin. Its not even foil, which lowered its collectibility and price in my eyes. I thought Commander players would prefer to run shiny Ugins in their decks (back then, I assumed Ugin’s eternal play demand – foils- would solely come from the Commander crowd).

I was so wrong.

Apparently a card’s scarcity was a more powerful price driver than I had imagined. Blue Ugin shot up all the way to $200 on eBay following Fate Reforged’s prerelease weekend. In retrospect, it was resoundingly obvious: Blue Ugin was a rare combination of an iconic card and extreme scarcity, and players and collectors were willing to pay Tarmogoyf price for it. Blue Ugin has now settled at $180 on StarCityGames, and around $130 to $150 on eBay as of writing.

I guess I overlooked the fact that the supply of Blue Ugins in the world would be capped at the number of Blue Ugins that were opened over the prerelease weekend.

Or is it?

Judge Foil Blue Ugin?

Here comes the wild card in determining the long-term potential of Blue Ugin. In my previous article, I established that the price of Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is unlikely to tank much as he is one of those rare few cards that has appeal in every single format except for Vintage (for now). Check out the article for my explanation and supporting evidence on how I arrived at that conclusion.

Which means the price of Blue Ugins can only go upward from here, assuming the assumption that the last Blue Ugin was opened on Fate Reforged’s prerelease weekend. However, I am beginning to think it may not be so.

To reiterate what I’ve touched on last week, it makes business sense for Wizards to reuse Chris Rahn’s art for another printing of Ugin, but I doubt Wizards would recycle Chris Rahn’s art for a Duel Deck reprint. Wizards are well aware of the secondary market and they do respect the fact that players and collectors paid a hefty sum for their cards (Good guy Wizards).

I am of opinion that the biggest risk to the price of Blue Ugins is a judge foil reprint. I proposed last week that we would most likely see Blue Ugin as a judge foil within the next few years, rather than a widely accessible reprint. Judge foils have always been used as an avenue to release highly sought after Commander and eternal staples in alternate art form and Ugin definitely fits the bill for a Judge foil reprint. Plus I can’t be the only one who thinks Chris Rahn’s art would look absolutely impressive in foil.

What would a judge foil reprint do to Blue Ugin’s price? I think the current non-foil version would definitely lose some of its allure and price. Blue Ugin commands a higher price than set foil Ugin as Blue Ugin is currently the rarer version. A judge foil reprint would eclipse that and it would garner aesthetic points for being in foil. You know, from Metalworker players who want to foil out their Ugins.

How much would the price of Blue Ugin drop? It’s hard to say for sure, but we can make a deduction based on a few assumptions. First off, we know that the supply of non-foil Blue Ugin from Ugin’s Fate packs would remain the same. There will be a small number of new Blue Ugins entering the market from unopened Ugin’s Fate booster packs being opened some time in the future. For the purpose of our deduction, we can consider that very sight bump in supply to be insignificant.

Secondly, we can assume that the supply of Blue Ugin is likely to be lower than that of the set foil Ugin. Fate Reforged is being drafted for half-a-year, and foil sets are being redeemed off Magic Online. Putting those two assumptions together, it is safe to conclude that the price of Blue Ugin would unlikely drop any lower than set foil Ugin, which is currently at $97, even in the scenario where Blue Ugin is reprinted as a judge foil, based on the merit that Blue Ugins are scarcer.

If we do indeed see a Blue Ugin judge foil in the future, we can assume that the non-foil Blue Ugin would still be more expensive than a set foil Ugin, but at a lower margin than the extra $30 – $50 it is currently enjoying. I am confident that the price of set foil Ugins would go on a gradual upward trajectory like that of the foil Eldrazis. Which means by the time we see a Blue Ugin judge foil, a set foil Ugin could be worth $120 – $130 and even if a non-foil Blue Ugin were to be worth a mere $10 – $20 more, Blue Ugins would probably still command a price range of $130 – $150. Which is it’s current price.

If you happen to own a Blue Ugin, I don’t think they will drop in price, even in the scenario of a judge foil reprint, due to Ugin’s long-term appreciation making up for lost value from reprint. However, if the judge foil reprint does not happen, congratulations, you have just bought a piece of Magic history that could very well have no ceiling in the long-run.

Magic history? While writing about the price of Blue Ugin, being a dragon aficionado and collector, I pondered about where Blue Ugin would rank among the most expensive dragons in Magic’s twenty-two year history. Which led me to dig through the price of all the dragons ever printed in Magic.

Here are the seven most expensive dragons in Magic.

7. Nicol Bolas From the Vaults: Dragons Foil, $46.40

It is slightly ironic that Ugin’s archnemesis, Nicol Bolas follows Ugin on the list of most expensive dragons, although here we see Nicol Bolas in his younger, svelter, pre-planeswalker-spark Elder Dragon body.

Nicol Bolas is the only dragon on this list whose price I am unable to explain. All his other printings, including the Time Spiral foil are not worth much. Nicol Bolas has been hovering around $50 for years and he is not exactly popular as a commander. Maybe it’s D. Alexander Gregory’s new art in which Bolas was described as one who looks like he works out at the gym after a hard day of charring souls and crushing cities.

6. Scion of the Ur-Dragon Foil, $74.01

Scion of the Ur-Dragon has always enjoyed a high foil multiplier, being the sole go-to commander for five-color dragons. Scion foils were hovering around the $30s for years on the back of Commander demand. Foil Scion spiked to $50 at the end of last year in anticipation of the influx of dragons from Dragons of Tarkir and once more to $70 in the middle of March this year.

Scion of Ur-Dragon is pretty insane with the addition of the young versions of the Dragonlords from Fate Reforged that grant your dragons a trigger when they attack. An alpha strike with Ojutai, Soul of Winter and a Scion mimicking Nicol Bolas is good times. Don’t get me started on Atarka, World Render.

5. Foil Scourge of the Throne, $91.97

Scourge of the Throne spiked in early March from $7 to $15 and its foil went from $60 to $90. As with Scion of the Ur-Dragon, Scourge of the Throne’s price was driven solely by Commander demand, explaining its high foil price.

Scourge seems to be designed with Commander in mind. It has a splashy effect that is viable in no other format but Commander, and Scourge allows you to dabble in the politics of Commander games (unlike say, Thundermaw Hellkite who just Hulk smashes an unfortunate opponent).

Conspiracy is a set chock-full of Commander and eternal-playable cards, as is prevalent from the huge foil multiplier the set’s most expensive cards command. While the set’s print run was not limited, it is fading further and further away into the recesses of time. Conspiracy was well received and there are rumors about the possibility of Conspiracy 2 next year.

4. Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind 2006 Champs Foil, $129.99

Wizards have a thing with promos. Players love them, and Wizards loves handing them out as event prizes or participation promos. Most of the time they are worth little, but they are some the most beautiful cards to see the light of day. Sometimes they are worth quite a little. Occasionally we stumble upon one that is worth a fortune.

The full art foil Champs promo Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind is in the later category.

Foil full art Niv-Mizzet was given out to the winners of Champs in 2006. It’s easy to see why Niz-Mizzet is worth so much. Todd Lockwood’s art is drop-dead gorgeous, Niv-Mizzet is a fun (or broken) commander, and Niv-Mizzet is one of the coolest dragons in Magic lore.

The only downside is the removal of Niz-Mizzet’s flavor text. The Guildpact version of Niv-Mizzet had one of the coolest flavor text in any Magic card. The one from the From the Vaults: Dragons version is pretty witty too.

3. Blue Ugin, $165.00 – $179.99

Near-mint copies of Blue Ugin could be found on TCGPlayer from $165 and StarCityGames is doing him for $179.99. eBay listings were closing at $130 – $150 as of writing. I’ve ranked Blue Ugin based on his retail price here as the other dragons were ranked similarly.

2. Zodiac Dragon, $263.99

The only Zodiac that was worth anything. Well, a lot.

Zodiac Dragon comes from the extremely difficult to find Portal Three Kingdoms set which was sold only in the Asian market. Home to inordinately expensive Legacy key pieces like Imperial Recruiter and Imperial Seal, and Commander high-end cards like Ravages of War and Capture of Jingzhou, Portal Three Kingdoms boasts one of the highest total set price among all Magic sets. Zodiac Dragon was one of the 12 Zodiac creature cycle, all of which are worth nought except for Zodiac Dragon.

Zodiac Dragon sees no play in any format, and the dragon’s stats are considered disappointing in this age of Magic. Zodiac Dragon nevertheless commands a price tag higher than that of Tarmogoyf courtesy of being one of the rarest dragons in Magic. And that art. Is the dragon flying or running?

1. Alpha Shivan Dragon, $1599.99

I was surprised that the most expensive dragon you could buy was not Zodiac Dragon, but rather a near-mint BGS 9 Alpha Shivan Dragon from StarCityGames.

An Alpha Shivan Dragon is veritable piece of Magic history. It was the first dragon in Magic. It shaped the way red turned out to be in the color pie, as Richard Garfield recalled in booklet found in From the Vaults: Dragons:

The biggest effect of Shivan Dragon on how the Magic game turned out may be that it’s the biggest reason red has flying. Of course, Magic had to have a dragon, and what with the fire and the destruction and the traditional mountain home, it was a shoo-in for red. But it also had to fly, and red was the magic of earth – the least likely element to get airborne. This was wrestled with for a while, and eventually we decided that big fliers in red were okay. But without Shivan Dragon leading the way, perhaps fliers in red would be as rare as direct damage in blue!

And Shivan Dragon was one of the first chase rares in Magic. It was rumoured to be worth as much as a Black Lotus during the early days of Magic ($25). A big portion of the price of the Shivan Dragon above stems from the fact that it is a BGS-graded Alpha card. An near-mint ungraded one is just $999.99, and would still top the table of most expensive dragons in Magic.

The Priceless One

One more thing.

It’s a challenge both to cast, and pronounce the dragon’s name.

Shichifukujin Dragon was not on the most expensive list because it is one of a kind. As in there is only one Shichifukujin Dragon in the world, and as with unique object like these, they are priceless.

Shichifukujin Dragon was created to commemorate the opening of the DCI Tournament Centre in Tokyo and I believe it is still hanging there. Mark Rosewater regaled the story of how Shichifukujin Dragon came into existence in an article written ten years ago. Below is an excerpt from Mark’s article:

To commemorate the opening of the DCI Tournament Center, Wizards was asked if they could design and draw (just as I designed both cards, Chris Rush illustrated both of them – back then he was a full-time Wizards employee) a card called Shichifukujin Dragon. Shichifukujin is the name of the Seven Deities of Good Fortune in Japanese mythology. The card was very symbolic as it was supposed to bring good luck to the DCI Tournament Center. Chris Rush drew a lovely picture. And just as it was about to go off to press, it occurred to someone, “Hmm, perhaps it might be cool to put actual rules text on the card.”

So they came to me. They needed a cool mechanic that matched the name and art. Oh, and I had an hour. As the art had to be a seven-headed dragon, I looked for a mechanic that played into the card’s seven-headedness. That is where I came up with the idea of the seven +1/+1 counters. Somehow seven heads got me thinking of hydras and I came up with the idea that it could grow new heads. But to do so it had to make itself more vulnerable for some duration of time. As I played around with the card I came up with the idea of losing two +1/+1 counters to get three… at the end of the turn. I quickly had the rules text templated (by a trained professional – I know better than to get involved in templating) and handed off the card.

There you go. The most expensive dragons in Magic’s history. If you know of any dragons I’ve missed after painstakingly browsing through every card in Gatherer with ‘dragon’ in its name or text and checking its price, do share with me in the comments below, or catch me on Twitter @theguoheng. Do drop a comment below too, or tweet to me if you just want to share you love of dragons.

Jared Yost

The Timeless Adventures of Monastery Mentor

April 27, 2015 Jared Yost 12 Comments

So from what I’ve been hearing recently, our recently released friend Monastery Mentor is quite the adventurer. Since Mentor hasn’t found a home in Standard yet, the card has felt the need to travel to far and distant formats in order to become the best. Based on the nature of cheap cantrips in eternal formats, it seems to have positioned itself as the next Vintage powerhouse, along with breaking into Legacy and Modern.

Seeker of the Way finally found it and thus became a master.

For the Vintage adventures of Monastery Mentor, I will direct your attention to this event in Rome. Only 71 players attended the event, but being sanctioned Vintage we can consider this a pretty big tournament. Monastery Mentor was the namesake of not one but four decks in the Top 8 of the event! It’s kind of crazy to think that a non-blue card would make such an impact on Magic’s oldest format. Let’s be honest, once we knew how crazy Treasure Cruise was in Legacy everyone knew that Mentor in Vintage was also going to be busted. Blue-Red Delver was a Tier 1 deck in Modern, Legacy and Vintage before the banned list update, so even after that restriction took place it looks like we have a more balanced card that has come in and again completely changed the format.

I think the Vintage Mentor deck was able to come about since Gush is no longer restricted in the format. Gush has opened up the doors for decks to really push their card draw engines to the max. The Monastery deck can either take the U/W route or splash red for cards like Dack Fayden and Red Elemental Blast. Either way, it seems like a spicy brew that is well positioned in the current metagame.

Two versions of the deck were also playing the somewhat forgotten Mystic Remora, a card that is also pretty decent in Commander and casual formats. They’re pretty cheap in paper at $0.25 or so if you’re looking to pick some up you can’t go wrong getting in at bulk prices. Vintage isn’t exactly a format that affects prices of non-foil cards at all, so the real reason to pick up Remoras is for casual and Commander appeal since it only has one printing.

What does this mean for the future of Monastery Mentor’s price? Well, I’m thinking that foils of Monastery Mentor are starting to look very appealing. Even at $55 I believe that they can up further over time. The reason is because Mentor is also up and coming in Legacy and Modern. Let’s take a look at some recent results to see where Mentor is played.

Mentor in Legacy

Grand Prix Kyoto Top 8 Stoneblade and UR Delver*

*Typo in decklist (should be listed as Monastery Swiftspear in UR Delver), ignore all references to Mentor in Legacy UR Delver.

Recent results from the Legacy GP, where ~2,000 players participated, have also indicated that Mentor is the real deal. He was played as a playset in UR Delver (splashing white just for Mentor) and Stoneblade in the Top 8. In fact, the Stoneblade deck was so radicalized by Mentor that it doesn’t even resemble a typical Stoneblade list. No True-Name Nemesis, no Delver of Secrets, and the only equipment to tutor with Stoneforge Mystic is Batterskull. Looking at the Stoneblade list, we can also see the Counterbalance / Sensei’s Divining Top package along with Terminus in the deck. All together, it looks like a cross between Miracles and Stoneblade rather than being a Stoneblade list. Still though, if the direction of Legacy is going this way with Mentor as one of the key cards in a tempo and control shell, I think it has a bright future in the format.

Mentor in Modern

Star City Games Providence (Esper Tokens) and States Results

First let’s take a look at the Esper Tokens list from Providence since it placed at a Premier IQ rather than a local states tournament. Playing four copies of Monastery Mentor, this deck was able to secure a Top 8 spot. A spin on the black/white tokens lists that have been floating around since Bitterblossom exploded in price, this deck is a control version of the tokens list. This makes sense considering Mentor rewards you for playing tons of noncreature spells. Looks like Vault of the Archangel made an appearance here too, which is pretty funny when you have a ton of Mentor tokens and opponents are trying to get through your deathtouching army. Tasigur is a nice backup that allows you to recur those spells and keep making tokens. Not that this is necessarily the best version of the Mentor deck in Modern, but it did place the best and the States Results also featured more copies of Esper Tokens making Top 8’s than other decks playing Mentor.

Speaking of States, let’s take a look at the decks that featured Mentor besides Esper Tokens.

Mardu Tokens – Mardu is not a color combination seen often in Modern, so when it pops up the list is definitely worth analyzing. This particular build features Mentor and Young Pyromancer, along with tokens mainstay Lingering Souls and Intangible Virtue. Kolaghan’s Command gives the deck some reach (especially with being able to return the token generators to your hand after they get killed / countered) and red allows the deck to play the premier removal spells of the format Lightning Bolt and Lightning Helix. An interesting spin on the traditional black/white tokens list.
Cheerios – Definitely the strangest deck featuring Mentor, this is an equipment based combo deck that wins through either Grapeshot storm count or if that doesn’t work creating an army of Mentor tokens and attacking. I’m not sure what the merits of this deck are outside of the particular States tournament where it was played but still it adds another merit badge to Mentor’s resume.
Mardu Pyro – Similar to Mardu Tokens, Mentor was included to help generate advantage alongside Young Pyromancer. By including tons of removal and other noncreature spells, the deck can quickly generate an army while taking out your opponent’s creatures.
Jeskai Delver – Delver of Secrets is still pretty decent in Modern, and similar to the concessions made in Legacy the UR Delver decks are splashing white in order to play Mentor and other powerful white cards in the format.
Mentor Burn – A new take on Burn, this deck features Mentor as a way to continue killing your opponent through all the Burn you’re playing. Instead of Atarka’s Command this deck focuses on casting Boros Charms and Mentors to continue the beatdown.

Summary on Foils

So there you have it: my thoughts on why the foils are looking good as pickups. I’m not sure if Mentor foils have room to drop with all the potential they have in Eternal formats. I would look for any deals locally or online to see if you can potentially trade for them, since many Standard players are looking for cards that are good in Standard and are probably more willing to trade Mentor since it currently isn’t featured in any Tier 1 decks of the format.

Speaking of Mentor in Standard…

Yes folks, I believe there will come a day when Mentor will be insane in Standard. That time might not be now but I think it is slated to come in the future as long as the proper support is provided in this new (somewhat extended) Standard rotation. Is $15 for non-foil Mentors the low point buy-in? I’ll admit, it might not possibly be the lowest. At the same time I have a hard time believing that it will drop below $10 into the single digits. The extra $5 now to secure your copies could definitely be worth it in the long run if the card breaks through $20 and more during its Standard life. Again, trading for copies is going to be your best bet. Similar to the foil versions, Standard-only players are going to be more willing to trade them for cards that see play in Tier 1 decks.

Final Thoughts

Finally, Mentor of course has casual appeal. Like Young Pyromancer, which is a $3 uncommon despite being printed into oblivion in an event deck, this card is going to garner plenty of casual demand due its token-generating abilities. Though only average in formats like Commander, it can still hold its own and help you stabilize the board if you’re able to stick Mentor for a turn or two.

All in all, I can’t fault anyone for picking up copies of Mentor now whether they’re foil or non-foil. Buying with cash is a tougher decision but trading for these guys is a no-brainer in my mind. Even though there is a possibility of a price decline based on the direction that Standard is taking, I believe that foils won’t be dropping much due to the Eternal format applications of the card. Also, even if Mentor does drop in price, I can only see it as a short term decline. It has a very high chance of going back up later in its Standard life, especially when Theros goes away.

That’s a wrap for my current thoughts on Monastery Mentor. As always guys, let me know what you’re thinking in the comments.

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