The Gilded Goblin

The Spread on Fate Reforged

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By: Jared Yost

Based on the work I’ve done previously for Khans of Tarkir (which you’ll want to read if you have no idea what I’m talking about when I mention spread), let’s take a look at the spread on Fate Reforged singles to see if we can tell where prices are going in the future.

Comparing Retail to Buylist

Let’s take a look at the Top 25 cards by retail price from Fate Reforged.

CARD NAME FAIR TRADE PRICE BEST BUYLIST PRICE SPREAD
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon $32.22 $23.50 27.06%
Monastery Mentor $19.80 $11.01 44.39%
Soulfire Grand Master $14.46 $9.70 32.92%
Whisperwood Elemental $13.40 $8.00 40.30%
Shaman of the Great Hunt $7.23 $4.00 44.67%
Tasigur, the Golden Fang $6.99 $4.01 42.63%
Brutal Hordechief $5.92 $3.01 49.16%
Warden of the First Tree $5.14 $2.51 51.17%
Crux of Fate $3.42 $2.15 37.13%
Outpost Siege $2.86 $1.55 45.80%
Torrent Elemental $2.78 $1.01 63.67%
Mastery of the Unseen $2.55 $0.75 70.59%
Valorous Stance $2.01 $1.25 37.81%
Temporal Trespass $1.96 $0.95 51.53%
Flamewake Phoenix $1.92 $0.60 68.75%
Citadel Siege $1.31 $0.48 63.36%
Frontier Siege $1.31 $0.31 76.34%
Mardu Strike Leader $1.31 $0.55 58.02%
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death $1.03 $0.14 86.41%
Soulflayer $0.99 $0.13 86.87%
Silumgar, the Drifting Death $0.96 $0.28 70.83%
Ghastly Conscription $0.95 $0.21 77.89%
Wild Slash $0.84 $0.23 72.62%
Monastery Siege $0.78 $0.10 87.18%
Kolaghan, the Storm’s Fury $0.77 $0.21 72.73%

One trend that should always be noted is that low spreads do not necessarily correlate with the higher priced fair trade cards. For example, even though Monastery Mentor has the number two retail price in the set at the moment, there are six other cards with lower spreads than the Mentor.

Warden of the First Tree has the highest spread amongst the cards in the top ten retail prices. The reason the spread is higher on Warden is because it only fits into one current archetype, Abzan Aggro, which needs to compete for demand in a field of other Standard deck possibilities. The best out for your extra Wardens is to trade them, since you’re hardly going to get half its retail value if you decide to buylist.

Now that we’ve gotten idea of what the desirable cards from the set are, let’s take a look at the list sorted by lowest to highest spread. This will better tell us which cards should be watched closely for price increases.

CARD NAME FAIR TRADE PRICE BEST BUYLIST PRICE SPREAD
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon $32.22 $23.50 27.06%
Soulfire Grand Master $14.46 $9.70 32.92%
Crux of Fate $3.42 $2.15 37.13%
Valorous Stance $2.01 $1.25 37.81%
Whisperwood Elemental $13.40 $8.00 40.30%
Tasigur, the Golden Fang $6.99 $4.01 42.63%
Monastery Mentor $19.80 $11.01 44.39%
Shaman of the Great Hunt $7.23 $4.00 44.67%
Outpost Siege $2.86 $1.55 45.80%
Brutal Hordechief $5.92 $3.01 49.16%
Warden of the First Tree $5.14 $2.51 51.17%
Temporal Trespass $1.96 $0.95 51.53%
Mardu Strike Leader $1.31 $0.55 58.02%
Citadel Siege $1.31 $0.48 63.36%
Torrent Elemental $2.78 $1.01 63.67%
Flamewake Phoenix $1.92 $0.60 68.75%
Mastery of the Unseen $2.55 $0.75 70.59%
Silumgar, the Drifting Death $0.96 $0.28 70.83%
Wild Slash $0.84 $0.23 72.62%
Kolaghan, the Storm’s Fury $0.77 $0.21 72.73%
Frontier Siege $1.31 $0.31 76.34%
Ghastly Conscription $0.95 $0.21 77.89%
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death $1.03 $0.14 86.41%
Soulflayer $0.99 $0.13 86.87%
Monastery Siege $0.78 $0.10 87.18%

Ugin’s Spread

The greatest point of discussion that we can draw from this is that Ugin, the Spirit Dragon has the highest retail price, highest buylist price, and lowest spread of any card from Fate Reforged. This highest spot in all three categories tells us some important information about the card. 

First, since he is played in Standard yet only played as one or two copies in any given deck, it means that there is gigantic casual demand for the colorless spirit dragon. No wonder! Being colorless means that he can literally just be jammed into any Commander or casual deck. Got a five color slivers deck? Throw Ugin in. B/R Goblins? Ugin’s good here. Is your Roon deck lacking burn? Ugin’s your man. So even though everybody only needs one or two copies, pretty much every single Magic player out there is picking them up as opposed to cards like Whisperwood Elemental which only a subset of players would need for a deck. 

Second, any card that is below a 30% spread is usually a good indication that it will further increase in price. Am I saying that the most expensive card in Fate Reforged could possibly get more expensive? Yes. There is a very real possibility that Ugin hits $40 or more during his Standard lifetime, just due to the fact that he is a popular casual planeswalker in addition to a huge Standard bomb. 

Last, the foil price is also an interesting area of discussion. Foil Ugins are currently almost $100, with just the amount of play that he is seeing now. That is almost unheard of for a Standard legal card. I’m not sure if foil Ugin will ever come down from the $90 highs, but my gut feeling tells me that there is more room for the foil to grow over time, especially if Ugin finds a home in a Standard deck that plays more than just one or two copies. That might seem farfetched now, however good mana ramp is always right around the corner and even though Nykthos is rotating doesn’t mean that we won’t have a suitable mana ramp replacement in the fall set. 

OK, so all in all what am I saying about Ugin? Essentially, given the demand for Ugin from the casual crowd in addition to his power in Standard, I’m saying that Ugin could be slightly undervalued based on the low spread that I’m seeing from the Fate Reforged top spreads data. Don’t be surprised if you see Ugins going to $40 and beyond next year. If you want an Ugin to play with, now might be the time to pick it up. 

Rest of the Top Ten Spreads 

Soulfire Grand Master is next on the list of lowest spreads, and this is a card that I’ve been highlighting since Fate Reforged has been available. It’s been showing up in Standard pretty consistently even if it might be fairly weak in the early stages of the game. The late game is where this card shines, and if you can stick a Master and cast even one or two spells with it you’re going to come out pretty far ahead. At this point, I’m hard pressed to see Master dropping below $10 retail since the buylist is so high. Similar to Ugin, I think the price here might also be driven by casual demand – after all, lifelink and lifelink spells scream casual to me and fulfill the demand of every casual player that has a lifegain deck. 

Crux of Fate is the best black sweeper in the format for now, however even with low spread I’m not entirely convinced. Its hard to see this card going above $5 since fewer and fewer control decks are seen in Standard these days compared to aggro or midrange. Still, if you need the card for Standard it certainly won’t be going down over the next year based on the data. 

Valorous Stance, an uncommon, has the fourth lowest spread in the set. This is big news for speculators looking to pick up a cheap target. I don’t think you can go wrong with Stance – it is a very playable card in Standard in Modern, it dodged a reprint in the latest event deck, is easily splashable at only one white mana in the cost, and is just an all-around flexible spell. Will this be the next $4-$5 Stoke the Flames? Unlikely, yet I do think there is some room for growth since it is an uncommon from a small set. 

Looking for other speculation targets based on price and low spread, we have Tasigur, the Golden Fang at $7, Shaman of the Great Hunt at $7.20, and Outpost Siege at $2.90.  Of these, Tasigur is the best speculation target for both foils and nonfoils. The best time to pickup your Tasigurs will be during the summer, since Magic Origins and Modern Masters 2015 will drive the spotlight away from him and potentially lower his price a bit more. He is a Standard and Modern powerhouse, and foils will be especially good targets for future gains. 

Trade Bait 

Cards that should be traded rather than buylisted if you’re looking to get rid of extras include Warden of the First Tree, Torrent Elemental, Flamewake Phoenix, and Mastery of the Unseen. These cards are pretty good in the right deck, however have narrow use in Standard which is why their spread is much higher than other cards on the high priced retail list. 

The only card I’m on the fence about (and I guess vendors are on the fence too since the spread is almost 50%) is Brutal Hordechief. Better to play it safe than sorry, so I would recommend holding onto your copies until we know if he will be played in any future Standard decks. Remember, Hellrider was insane in the right Standard environment, and Hordechief could easily follow in his Hellrider’s path if the opportunity presents itself. Not having haste is a huge downside but at least he still creates a trigger for every creature that attacks. Definitely a card to keep a close watch on even though the spread indicates that it might be worse than it actually appears. 

Final Thoughts 

Spread can definitely be one of the more powerful tools for picking undervalued cards because vendors aren’t playing around when it comes to buylist – they’ve also done their homework to set prices where they want them, and if a buylist spread is getting smaller and smaller it usually is only a matter of time before that card’s retail price rises as well. 

This time around, I’m more inclined to think that spreads could more easily shift since this is a smaller set where prices on mythics especially tend to get a little crazy if the card is super hot and in demand from several types of players. What do you guys think? Do the spreads add up or are vendors / players missing something about the higher priced Fate Reforged Cards? Do you see spreads changing pretty drastically depending on the results coming in over the next few months?

 

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Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir: Top 8 Coverage

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The stage is set for an epic Top 8 bound to be remembered fondly both for the innovative deck lists and the quality of the talent.

Coming out of the Swiss rounds, here is where our Top 8 competitors ended up:

  1. Ondrej Strasky (GR Unwritten Atarka)
  2. Adrian Sullivan (UB Control)
  3. Martin Dang (RG Aggro)
  4. Jason Chung (RG Dragons)
  5. Shota Yasooka (UB Control)
  6. Marco Cammilluzzi (Abzan Control)
  7. Thomas Hendriks (GR Atarka)
  8. Andrew Ohischwanger (Esper Dragon Control)

Based on those results, here’s our Top 8 bracket:

  • Hendricks (GR Atarka) vs. Sullivan (UB Control)
  • Dang (RG Aggro) vs. Cammilluzzi (Abzan Control)
  • Strasky (Atakra Unwritten) vs Ohischwanger (Esper Dragon Control)
  • Shota  (UB Dragon Control) vs. Jason Chung (RG Dragons)

Here’s a list of notable cards that made Top 8 this weekend with the number of copies on display:

  • Whisperwood Elemental 8
  • Xenagos the Reveler 8
  • Goblin Rabblemaster 8
  • Dig Through Time 8
  • Nissa Worldwaker 7
  • Dragonlord Atarka 7
  • Ugin, Spirit Dragon 5
  • Surrak, Caller of the Hunt 5
  • Dragonlord Silumgar 4
  • See the Unwritten 4

To summarize, the potential MTGFinance implications of this Top 8 as follows:

  • If UB Control wins and it has dragons in it, expect Dragonlord Silumgar, Silumgar, the Drifting Death, Perilous Vault and/or Dig Through Time to potentially gain some ground.
  • If Strasky manages to make Top 2, it would seem inevitable that See the Unwritten will dodge a price spike, especially given that the Eldrazi are inbound this fall to make the card even more alluring.
  • If Hendricks pulls off a kill with Shaman of the Forgotten Way against Sullivan, look for that card to add some value.
  • Dang and Hendricks are running a combined eight copies of Goblin Rabblemaster, so their success could lead to some renewed interest there. The Dang decks runs three copies of Zurgo, Bellstriker, so that could be a thing, and Atarka’s Command should gain $1-3 if Dang gets to the finals.
  • Hendricks and Strasky are both running the full four copies of Whisperwood Elemental, so expect a boost if the card proves out to have enough power to win a major tournament in a completely different deck than in prior appearances.

 Hendricks (GR Atarka) vs. Sullivan (UB Control)

Game 1: Under pressure and facing multiple threats, Sullivan gets off a key Crux of Fate to clear the deck in the mid-game. Whisperwood Elemental is countered on the next turn, and Sullivan starts in with a flurry of card draw spells to get back into control of the game. A main deck Ashiok starts claiming green creatures off the top of Hendricks deck and puts things away within a few more turns.

Game 2: Sullivan hastily mulligans a terrible hand. His next hand is 5 lands and a Silence the Believers, putting him on the back foot. Hendricks curves out nicely into Mystic, Caryatid and Courser into Genesis Hydra to get another Caryatid onto the table and starts generating constant pressure in the form of a steady stream of Coursers, Xenagos and a back pocket Nissa, Worldwaker. Sullivan tries to bluff an Aetherspouts to fend off a lethal attack, and does indeed manage to buy a turn to find a better answer. The top deck is a Perilous Vault, and without enough mana to play and activate it, Sullivan is forced to use a Silence the Believers with Strive to hold on through a 2nd turn of bluffing Aetherspouts. The next turn however only gives him an Ashiok and Hendriks takes Game 2 with a large attack force on the next turn.

Game 3: Hendriks decides to keep a hand with just a land and a Mystic, but draws land off the top to stay on pace. Hendriks runs out a Whisperwood Elemental on Turn 4, which catches an Hero’s Downfall immediately. Sullivan plays Thoughtseize on the next turn gaining valuable hand information and getting rid of Reclamation Sage to ensure his future Vaults do good work. A 2nd Whisperwood for Hendriks catches a Dissolve, and on the next turn cycle Hendriks offers a Course of Kruphix as counter/kill bait. It too catches a Dissolve with Sullivan sitting on Disdainful Stroke, Dragonlord’s Perogative and a Vault. A Dig Through Time puts Sullivan into the driver’s seat as he allows a Xenagos to resolve, only to follow it up with Perilous Vault on his turn. Sensing his doom, Hendriks casts a Genesis Hydra for 9 and puts Nissa, Worldwaker into play in order to ensure a Nissa generated land will be left behind after a Vault activation to clear the board. Sullivan bites and clears the board, aiming to Aetherspouts the 4/4 land a turn later as needed. A Stroke handles a top decked Xenagos, and Aetherspouts does indeed remove the last remaining threat from the GR mage. Perogative once again helps Sullivan take control, and Ugin drops into play to put our first UB player into the Top 4 within a few quick turns.

 Dang (RG Aggro) vs. Cammilluzzi (Abzan Control)

Game 1: Dang leads off with his usual plan of low slung threats, with 3 creatures attacking for 5 on Turn 2. Our Abzan pilot Thoughtseize’s away Dragon Fodder on his second turn, but is down to 4 by Turn 3, and Dang steals the first game despite the presence of a Siege Rhino on curve. This is not the kind of start the UB Control players will want to face off against if Dang pushes through to further rounds!

Game 2: After sideboarding, Dang brings in 9 cards including four copies of Roast in exchange for Wild Slash to handle Siege Rhino and Whisperwood. Marco brings in 10 cards, including Bile Blight, three copies of Drown in Sorrow and three Fleecemane Lion as well as two copies of Duress to get token spells or Atarka’s Command. He boards out Ugin, Vess and Thoughtseize to speed up the deck.

After a fast curve out from Dang, Marco is facing elimination when he finds a land off the top and manages to clear the board with Drown in Sorrow and follow up on his next turn with a Siege Rhino. Dang however top decks Become Immense and kills his opponent in another game that took less than five minutes to play out.

Strasky (Atakra Unwritten) vs Ohischwanger (Esper Dragon Control)

Game 1: Strasky kicks off with an Elvish Mystic to start curving out after a mulligan from both players. Andrew takes Courser of Kruphix with Thoughtseize to slow things down. Strasky then offers up a Surrak, the Hunt Caller. A Foul Tongue Invocation from Andrew forces him to choose between his mana base vs. his only threat. He lets the Mystic die, and exposes himself to further removal. Sure enough a Downfall takes out Surrak and Strasky is left with a Morph and a Mystic, with a Boon Satyr in hand. Smart play with the Satyr on a Rattleclaw takes Andrew to 3, and he plays out Ojutai to attempt to stabilize. Strasky keeps the pressure on by forcing Ojutai to trade with his Mystic, leaving behind Polukranos, Boon Satyr and an Elvish Mystic against an empty board. It all comes down to an Anticipate looking for Crux of Fate, and failing to find it puts Atarka Unwritten up a game.

Game 2: Strasky brings in Nissa, Xenagos and Arbor Colossus. Atarka comes out. For Andrew, he brings in Ashiok and a small pile of singleton removal spells and the fourth copy of Thoughtseize. Strasky draws a great curve. Andrew gets a land heavy hand with very little action and fails to leave up a potentially key Silumgar’s Scorn to answer a Turn 2 Courser of Kruphix on Strasky’s second turn. On Turn 3, Scorn is held up, and Strasky opts to play Rattleclaw Mystic as a morph to avoid losing the turn to a counterspell. Perilous Vault comes out from Andrew, threatening to clear the board on turn five. With the UB mage tapped out Strasky drops Surrak and gets in for ten damage, putting Andrew to 9. The overwhelming board presence draws a Vault activation and Strasky gets to play Polukranos without worrying about it being countered. Ohlschwager uses Ultimate Price to keep the board clean. Strasky follows up with Elvish Mystic and a morph which are met by a Crux of Fate. Strasky declines to walk a Whisperwood Elemental into a potential counter, but drops Boon Satyr in at the end of his opponent’s turn.  He then plays out Surrak, threatening 9 more hasty damage. Surrak catches a Hero’s Downfall, but Satyr gets in as Andrew casts Dig Through Time to try and set up a comeback. On his turn he casts Dragonlord Silumgar, steals the Satyr, and Ondrej is forced to try for Whisperwood into a Scorn. Silumgar and Satyr swing in, and Andrew then counters a responsive Arbor Colossus. Strasky top decks a Nissa at just one life and steals the game out from under his opponent despite tight play from Andrew!

Shota  (UB Dragon Control) vs. Jason Chung (RG Dragons)

Game 1: Chung curves out normally with Heir of the Wilds into Boon Satyr. On turn four, Chung forces Yasooka to choose between countering his Thunderbreak Regent or killing an attacker. Yasooka chooses the counter option, and drops to 11. Facing a potentially hasty Surrak, the Japanese master user Downfall on Satyr to slow things down, and uses Crux of Fate to mop up on his turn. Chung is able to immediately field a Stormbreath Dragon, but Yasooka has another Downfall to stave off more damage, sitting at a perilous three life. Board parity established, Yasooka starts drawing cards and then plays his first threat in Icefall Regent to lock down a Rattleclaw Mystic. Chung draws into Draconic Roar but has no dragon to partner with it for the win. A Boon Satyr trades with the Regent and Shota gets off another DTT taking Silumgar, the Drifting Death and another Silumgar’s Scorn. A new Boon Satyr in the end step draws a Bile Blight and leaves Yasooka with four cards in hand. Scorn takes care of the next Stormbreath Dragon and Yasooka finds time to get Silumgar into play. In top deck mode Chung is hard pressed to table enough threats and Yasooka pulls away with Game 1, using his dragons to finish off his foe.

Game 2: Yasooka is forced to mulligan with one land but gets lucky as Chung fails to open with acclerants, holding 3 red dragons. Silumgar’s Scorn proves it’s mettle yet again, killing of the first Thunderbreak Regent that pops its head up. Bile Blight then cleans up a Boon Satyr but Chung answers with another Regent that is answered by Dragonlord Silumgar briefly before Chung uses Plummet to get his Regent back and swings for the win!

Game 3: Yasooka manages to answer a bevy of early threats only to use Dragonlord Silumgar to steal Xenagos and stabilize fully at ten life. With Chung running low on fresh threats, Shota sets off down the draw-go path, gets a Silumgar, the Drifting Death into play alongside his alternate self, backed up by counterspells and kill spells aplenty. Much to the dismay of the Kiwis, Chung falls to a masterful play pattern by Yasooka.

Quaterfinal Wrap Up

We’re down to the following decks: UB Dragon Control, RG Aggro, UB Control and Atarka Unwritten. For finance purposes we should now be laser focused on potential price movement on Dragonlord Silumgar, Dragonlord Atarka, Zurgo and Atarka’s Command. It’s also possible that camera time for Silumgar’s Scorn could move it into the $1-2 range from $.50.

Semifinals

Shota vs. Strasky

UB  Dragons in the hands of Shota takes down Strasky to tear down the dream for See the Unwritten and Dragonlord Atarka just one round too soon. Again Dragonlord Silumgar has featured prominently and I’d be surprised for the card to not hit at least $8-10 despite only being a 1-2 of in most of the UB decks this weekend.

Finals: Dang vs. Yasooka 

Game 1: The RG Aggro deck takes another Game 1 super quickly as Shota mulliganed hard and nearly caught a game loss because he had forgotten to de-sideboard after his last match. My eye turns to Atarka’s Command and

Game 2: Early Drown in Sorrow from Shota clears the board of red attackers and he follows up with an Icefall Regent and starts swinging. Eidolon of the Great Revel comes down, but Dragonlord Silumgar again shows up to steal it away and punish the red mage harshly and Shota runs away with it. I’m having trouble finding copies of the UB Dragonlord under $9 at this point, up $3 or so since the start of the weekend.

Game 3: Shota has 2 Status Dancer in hand after sideboarding, and is quickly facing down two Monastery Swiftspears. Drown in Sorrow clears the board yet again, but Dang plays out more threats than Shota can handle and takes the game.

Game 4:  On the play Shota mulligans his first hand seeing too few answers to early plays. His next hand is 5 lands and Ultimate Price and Shota is easily in top deck mode. Ultimate Price takes out an early Eidolon, and Shota follows up with Virulent Plague, shutting down a ton of the token related cards in the red deck. Another Eidolon joins Swiftspear and Shota must take 2 more from the Eidolon while using Hero’s Downfall.  Goblin Rabblemaster creates a fresh threat. Shota gets down a morphed Stratus Dancer, which can potentially counter a burn spell. It gets forced into blocking before it can gain more value however, Yasooka is down to lands in hand. Dang uses Atarka’s Command to put it away.

RG Aggro has won Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir! Take a look at Zurgo, Bellstriker, Eidolon of the Great Revel, Atarka’s Command and Goblin Rabblemaster as potential spiking cards folks!

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MTGFinance: What We’re Buying/Selling This Week (April 11/15)

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It recently occurred to us here that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when we actually put our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series simply breaking down what we’ve been buying this week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we were up to this week:

Buying Period: April 5 – April 11, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

BOUGHT

  • 5x Eidolon of the Great Revel @ $6 per: Mid to Long
  • 3x Deathmist Raptor @ $15 per: Short to Mid
  • 1x Japanese Scavenging Ooze @ $6: Mid to Long
  • 1x Japanese Wooded Foothills @ $13: Long
  • 1x Flooded Strand (KTK) @ $11: Long
  • 12x Den Protector @ $1.25 per: Short

Pucatrade SOLD

  • 4x Den Protector @ $3.00 ($1.50 cost)
  • 1x Blood Moon (Chronicles) @  $21 ($11 cost)
  • 1x Sword of War & Peace (New Phyrexia) @ $19 ($7 cost)

Trades

  • 1x Dragonlord Ojutai (Out) for 1x Bloodstained Mire + 1x Thunderbreak Regent (In)
  • 1x Grove of the Burnwillows (Out) for 3x Stormbreath Dragon
  • 2x Haven of the Spirit Dragon (Out) for Dig Through Time + 4x FNM Squadron Hawk (In)

The Den Protectors were an opportunistic play after my early identification of the card as a major force in the early rounds of Standard at Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir yesterday. The card spiked hard towards $5 from $1.50 and I’ve already managed to flip most of the copies through Pucatrade. The rest of my purchases were just cards on my acquisition list that I snag whenever the opportunity arises.

Most of the rest of my activity was just a few minor value trades, as I am ramping up funds to jump in on some boxes of MM2.

 Guo Heng (@guoheng)

Bought (MTGO)

  • 4x Dragonlord Silumgar on MTGO for 4.39 tix per.
  • 7x Atarka’s Command. 3x for 2.59 tickets per, 4x for 2.69 per.

Bought (Paper)

  • 1x Dragonlord Silumgar for $4.64 from player.

Trades

  • Traded 1x Sidisi, Undead Vizier (Out) for 1x Dragonlord Silumgar (In)
Guo says:
“Red aggro decks splashing green exclusively for Atarka’s Command was the most popular deck at the Pro Tour. There’s potential for a quick flip after the Pro Tour weekend, if a Red Aggro list top 8s. “
 Danny Brown
Bought (MTGO)
  • 36 packs of Khans of Tarkir (MTGO) at 1.3 tix each.
Bought (Paper)
*These are cube pickups:
  • Strip Mine (Fourth Edition) for 456 points
  • Thirst for Knowledge (Mirrodin) for 49 points
  • Tezzeret the Seeker for 1542 points
  • Mind Twist (Revised Edition) for 322 points
  • Lightning Berserker for 78 points
Bought (Pucatrade)
  • 2 Dack Fayden at 2496 points each.

 

Danny says:
“I started buying the KTK packs six at a time at 1.38 tix each. The bot I was buying them from lowered the price almost every time and I ended up paying 1.27 tix each by the last six. This left my total buy-in at 47.28 for the 36 packs, or 1.3 per pack. This pack price was completely driven into the ground due to oversaturation of the market by giving out KTK as prizes for the last six months. Now, though, Dragons of Tarkir is the prize pack for Constructed events, andKhans is a set with fetch lands. I haven’t done a lot of MTG finance-style activity on MTGO, but 1.3 per pack seems like a fine buy-in, and these tickets were just sitting there anyway.”
 
Foil Dack Fayden currently has a 10 times multiplier, which is probably appropriate for a powerhouse Vintage and Cube card. That said, Conspiracywasn’t widely opened, and unless Dack is reprinted somewhere, I can’t see this price doing anything but going up. It briefly flirted with a negative spread last week, but now it’s down to a more normal 28 percent. At the very least, I don’t see myself losing money here, especially since I used PucaPoints, and I don’t think it will be that hard to convert these points into cash on a 1:1 basis (meaning I believe that eventually a buylist will pay $25 for this). 
 
As I focused on in my introductory article, you’ll notice that I am using the non-cash resources at my disposal to pick up cards.  If you leverage your collection in the right way, you can be active in MTG finance while rarely spending actual money. I didn’t spend a dime on the game this week, but I expect to be able to profit of Magic anyway.
 
Lightning Berserker was 100 points last week, and will likely continue dipping until 25, but again, I embraced a lack of patience and went for it. Tezzeret could go down if reprinted in Modern Master 2015, but that seems like a longshot to me. All the other cards here shouldn’t be moving in one way or another and are good to have on hand for the format.”

 

Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin)

Bought

  • 20x See the Unwritten @ $3

“Card is looking good after taking the top slot in the rounds leading to Top 8, and should be good in the fall.”

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir: Day 2 Coverage

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Top 8 (in order)

  1. Ondrej Strasky (GR Unwritten Atarka)
  2. Adrian Sullivan (UB Control)
  3. Martin Dang (RG Aggro)
  4. Jason Chung (UB Control?)
  5. Shota Yasooka (UB Control)
  6. Marco Cammilluzzi (Abzan Control)
  7. Thomas Hendriks (GR Atarka)
  8. Andrew Ohischwanger (?)

Heading into the Top 8 the cards to watch are See The Unwritten, Dragonlord Silumgar, Silumgar, The Drifting Death, Whisperwood Elemental, and Dragonlord Atarka as cards that can see further gains if they reach the Finals.

Round 16 (Standard Round 10)

12:30 pm: Seth Manfield (Atarka Abzan) vs. Shota Yasooka (UB Control). Yasooka easily establishes control and takes Game 1. In Game 2 Dragonlord Silumgar steals an important Siege Rhino. Manfield tries get it back with Atarka, but runs up against a Silumgar’s Scorn cast as Counterspell and Yasooka takes over again to put himself into the Top 8 with our 2nd UB Control deck.

Round 15 (Standard Round 9)

11:35 am: Strasky closes out his match putting See the Unwritten into the Top 8 for sure. Expecting a bump on this card toward $5 if he wins with it Sunday.

11:16 am: Eric Froelich (Jeskai Tokens) vs. Adrian Sullivan (U/B Control). I’m really liking Jeskai Ascendancy as a pickup later this summer under $2. Sullivan uses Ugin to clean up Game 1. Froelich has trouble with land flood, allowing Sullivan to take Game 2 and qualify for his first Pro Tour Top 8 in a 20 year career in the game.

Round 14 (Standard Round 8)

11:13 am: Willy Edel breaks down his Sultai whip deck splashing Dragonlord Atarka, a card that seems likely to push up towards $20 exiting this weekend.

10:22 am: Martin Dang (RG Aggro) vs. Ondrej Strasky (Atarka Unwritten). Dang puts the slower deck away in quick order Game 1. Strasky stabilizes in Game 2 with Whisperwood Elemental. Strasky wins the match off of a strong See the Unwritten to put him out of range of the low casting cost aggro deck.

10:18am: Manfield (Abzan Atarka) vs. Andrea Mengucci (Abzan Control): Manfield continues his quest to conquer the Italian players this weekend.

10:10am: Samuel Black (RG Bees) vs. PVD (Esper Dragon Control): This is a key matchup this weekend with the control deck favored. An early Ojutai from Da Rosa is backed up by Silumgar’s Scorn and Silumgar the Drifting Death to dominate Game 1. PVD gets Ojutai and both Silumgars in play in Game 2 to totally destroy Sam Black.

Round 13 (Standard Round 7)

9:53am: Patrick Dickmann on Deck Tech #2 today. Jeskai Dragons!  Anger of the Gods (2), Valorous Stance, Aether Spouts (1) main deck. Leverages Draconic Roar, Silumgar’s Scorn and Haven of the Spirit Dragon with Thunderbreak Regent (4), Dragonlord Ojuatai (3), Icefall Regent (2) and Stormbreath Dragon (1). This is special to me since I built this deck 2 weeks ago and am running it in Standard. Dickmann is undefeated with the deck so far.

9:11am: Seth Manfield (Abzan Atarka) vs Marco Cammilluzzi (Abzan Control): 2 copies of Atarka define the Manfield deck. The card is everywhere this weekend and selling briskly. Elspeth once again doing work on camera here in Game 3. Manfield advances to 10-2-1 winning the match with his unique Abzan build.

9:04 am: Joel Larsson (RG Dragons) vs. Rick Lee (Abzan Aggro). Deathmist Raptor showing up again here, this time in the Abzan Aggro deck. Players head to Game 3 with one game a piece.  Dromoka’s Command doing good work against Larsson in Game 3 and Lee takes the game for the match win.

Round 12 (Standard Round 6) 

8:37 am: Dech Tech: Ondrej Strasky is featuring Atarka Combo (G/R Devotion). Deck starts with the Elvish Mystic, Sylvan Caryatid, Rattleclaw Mystic and Courser of Kruphix.  Mid-range threats include Polukranos, Whisperwood Elemental as 4-ofs, and Surrak, Hunt Caller and Boon Satyr as 2-ofs. See the Unwritten and Dragonlord Atarka as 4-ofs at the top end. Deck is 5-1 so far, and Ondrej is 10-2 so far.

8:15 am: Marco Cammilluzzi (Abzan Control) vs. Andrea Mengucci (Abzan Control): The Italian players take a game each off camera and we join them in a tight Game 3. This game likely to be decided based on who can stick an Ugin to trump any Elspeth, Sun’s Champion that might make it into play.

8:08 am: In Game 2 Cuneo gets down a Dragonlord Ojutai and throws off the danger of a Rending Volley from Cohen using Valorous Stance. Cuneo manages to fend off all further threat with control answers and puts Cohen down with ease and takes the match.

8:01 am: PVD (U/B Control) vs. Makihito Mihara (GB Constellation): PVD steal a Polukranos from Mihara with Dragonlord Silumgar to easily take control of Game 1.

7:46 am: Justin Cohen (Red-Green Bees) vs Andrew Cuneo (White-Blue Control): Cohen’s tech includes the ability to use Roast or Chandra, Pyromaster against his own Hornet Nest to create a pile of early bees. Stormbreath Dragon, Whisperwood Elemental, Courser of Kruphix and Chord of Calling are additional notables. The Cuneo control deck is running many of the usual suspects including a host of counterspells, End Hostilities and Dig Through Time, as well as Secure the Wastes to hold off aggro decks in the early turns. Elspeth, Sun’s Champion is running the game for Cuneo, further proving her continued value in Standard.

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Day 2 Set-Up

Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir has thus far been everything we could want in a pro level tournament, with a plethora of interesting new decks and a ton of drama. The metagame on Day 1 in Standard has advanced the possibilities for new and renewed strategies including Red/Green Bees, Bant Dragons, Jeskai Ascendancy Combo and Strength of the Fallen Devotion. Here’s our coverage of Day 1 so you can get caught up.

So far the stand out spec has been the run up of multi-purpose Dragons of Tarkir rare Den Protector. which has spiked from $1.50 to $4.00 within the last 24 hours.

Now after 3 rounds of Khans block draft, the stage is set for 5 more rounds of Standard to figure out our Top 8 players and decks.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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