The Gilded Goblin

Results from Japan

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By: Jared Yost

I was browsing MTGTop8 results and noticed that there were three major events that took place in Japan over the recent weeks – there were two Standard PTQ’s along with a large Legacy event that had almost 300 players. Let’s see what types of results have come from these events since they could be adopted by other regions for metagames. 

Standard – PTQ Takadanobaba

Decklists

Soulfire Grand Master – This card showed up as a playset in the second place deck. This makes me wonder if this was a metagame call or if the Grand Master has the potential of being a main staple of Jeskai decks in the new Fate Reforged Standard. The current price trajectory of Soulfire Grand Master over the last month:

soulfire grand master price history

The cheapest current price is $12, a lofty fall from its preorder price of $25 and higher. Many have thought that the Grand Master was nothing more than a cute, gain-more card that was destined to fall pretty hard. While this is true, it has also proven that it can be a powerful card in Standard. Its inclusion in the second place deck along with another appearance in the Boros Aggro deck that made the Top 8 (with two copies appearing the deck) is making me seriously consider this card’s playability in future Standard events.

Cheap casting cost mythic rares can be hit or miss. However, I really think this card has struck a chord with spikes and has incredible casual appeal. Remember that time in your Magic playing career that you loved gaining life? This card takes that desire to a completely different galaxy of possibilities for the casual players among us.

While I believe that the Grand Master has some room to drop as Fate Reforged continues to be opened, if it starts going into the single digit ranges I’m going to be watching it very closely as a potential pickup. It has current and future Standard value as well as casual appeal. To me, these are all signs of an undervaluation if the Grand Master continues its price descent.

Soldier of the Pantheon – This card also made an appearance, in both Jeskai Midrange and one of the Abzan Midrange decks. Soldier currently sits at around $0.83 retail, with many copies listed at $0.75 or less. There could be potential for a spike in the short run if Soldier turns out to be good in the new metagame, and if that happens it will be the time to get rid of any copies of Soldier that you have. I don’t expect it to become a Modern or eternal mainstay so the last chance to get value out of Soldier will be in the coming months.

Wedge Tap Lands – Wedge tap lands are seeing play in nearly every deck due to the three color nature of the format. The time to get in on wedge tap lands en mass is coming soon. Even Sandsteppe Citadel, arguably the most widely played wedge land, is only around $0.50 retail. If you can pick up these lands for $0.40 or less it will be a great addition to a long term spec box.

Rakshasha Deathdealer – Another card that appeared in several decks, the power of Deathdealer in the new format cannot be underestimated. It is one of the best shades that Wizards has printed and it could really shine in Standard at some point. At $1 it seems like a very good pickup for future gains. 

Standard – Tarukiru Dragon Kiden (Japan)

Decklists

Archfiend of Depravity – Three copies of this card showed up in an Abzan Midrange list, which is surprising since I didn’t figure that that this card had constructed potential. Due to the inclusion it makes me want to watch the card closely over the next few months in case it pops up anywhere else.

Kolaghan, the Storm’s Fury – The dragon appeared in the sideboard of the Mardu Control list. In addition to constructed playability, Kolaghan will also be popular with the casual crowd. This will enable it to retain a fairly decent price even if it doesn’t see much Standard play. I like foils here if you can get them on the cheap.

Citadel and Outpost Siege – Many players are hyping the red siege (Outpost) since it brings Chandra, Pyromaster’s best ability out as an enchantment, which is generally harder to remove. However, Citadel Siege should not be overlooked. In aggro decks this card really shines as both modes can be useful to you throughout the game. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Citadel Siege as Fate Reforged results continue to roll in.

Soulfire Grand Master was seen at the top tables at this tournament too, being featured in Boros Aggro as a playset. This furthers the idea that it could have Standard possibilities.

Monastery Mentor only showed up in Jeskai Tokens, which means that he is not quite as popular as Goblin Rabblemaster in the current Standard. This leads me to believe that his price will come down a bit more over the coming months. I would watch out for any good deals through the summer because even though Mentor isn’t a powerhouse in Standard now we all know that he will be quite good in the future once Rabblemaster rotates.

Legacy – BIG MAGIC OPEN 3rd

Decklists

Death and Taxes took down the event. Thalia has been slowly rising to close to $5 retail and I expect this upward trend to continue. She is not going to get a reprint in Modern Masters 2 while still being a widely played Modern and Legacy staple.

Mother of Runes was just announced as reprint in the upcoming Elspeth vs. Kiora duel decks, so I expect her to trend downward in price in the coming weeks based on the announcement. Leonin Arbiter is a hard call – at $1.50 retail it is very cheap for a card that occasionally sees Legacy play and definitely sees Modern play. However, I think many vendors and players are speculating its inclusion in Modern Masters 2 which has kept the price suppressed. Just last December the card was at $4 and seemed to be gaining in price. Then all of a sudden it dropped back down to $1.50 and seems to keep lowering.

leonin arbiter price history

So what happened? Its hard for me to put an exact reason for Arbiter’s price history, but it feels to me that his price reflects the wax and wane of the Hate Bears deck in Modern. Once Treasure Cruise was banned and the format shifted towards BGw Midrange Decks, Arbiter again found himself on the sidelines.

Historically, his drop in the middle of last year was leading up to Treasure Cruise and the general lack of large Modern events, and once the Hate Bears deck started doing well against the Treasure Cruise format he then shot back up to the $4 range. Of course, this is all just a theory – it could very well be the case that vendors just kept getting bought out at particular times which explains the temporary price spike of the card.

All in all, this tells me that Leonin Arbiter is a card that should be watched very closely for future gains or losses. Its volatile past tells me that the card could swing easily one way or the other depending on the direction that Modern or Legacy take.

Other notables from the tournament include a second place Merfolk list and Grixis Control placing in the Top 8 along with changes to Delver archetypes.

Merfolk made some interesting choices – main decking Waterfront Bouncer, Choking Tethers, and Chalice of the Void. It appears to to be a straight beatdown deck, playing four True-Name Nemesis and three Cavern of Souls in order to get the beats on. The sideboard included Ensnare and Back to Basics, cards I haven’t seen in a while in a Legacy Merfolk sideboard.

Grixis Control is playing Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Goblin Rabblemaster, Counterspell, and Dack Fayden along with a slew of one mana cost spells including Inquisition of Kozilek in order to control the early game. Mainly, the deck showcased that Tasigur and Rabblemaster are also Legacy playable apparently.

Delver decks now are splashing black for cards like Deathrite Shaman, Tombstalker, Cabal Therapy, and Tasigur. One version did strictly stay UR and opted to play three Dig Through Time over two or fewer to get the maximum effect out of the Delve keyword alongside cards like Gitaxian Probe and other cheap spells. Delver is still alive and well as one of the top decks of Legacy.

Results Are In

Its interesting to analyze different metagames in order to expand your knowledge of what possibilities for deckbuilding are out there. Even though non-Japanese metagames may not mirror the results that appeared across the three tournaments I covered, there are still some interesting trends that should be noted so that they don’t surprise you later down the road. If you’re interested in any of the decks or strategies that did well in Japan then you will want to get in on cards that are cheap now and look for good deals on cards that are currently overpriced.

 

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MTGFinance: What We’re Buying This Week (Pt 2)

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It recently occurred to us here that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when we actually put our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series simply breaking down what we’ve been buying this week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here we go!

Buying Period: Feb 15th – 21st, 2015

Guest Report: “Davis” (Toronto, Canada MTGFinance Hustler)

While most of us are just talking about buying cards, guys like “Davis” (not his real name) are out there hustling for paper in both directions. I first came across Davis when preparing for GP NJ last fall, when he lent me some much needed Legacy cards without the slightest demand for compensation, having never met me before. Intrigued by his trust, we chatted on social media, and it quickly became apparent to me that he was one of the sharpest minds in MTGFinance. Davis has a keen eye for a deal, and he’s willing to travel to get things done. When others are scared, he’s stockpiling, and recently we’ve been chatting about how the swings in exchange up here (the Canadian dollar has moved from $1.05 against the USD last summer to $1.28 now) have made acquiring Legacy and Vintage staples in Canada a serious bargain.

Here’s what Davis has been up to this week:

  • 6x Alt Art Ugin, the Spirit Dragon: $60 per
  • Swords to Plowshares (FNM Foil): $95
  • Lightning Bolt (Judge Foil): $115
  • Counterbalance (Foil NM): $65
  • Thoughtseize (Foil NM Lorwyn): $175
  • Foil Gaea’s Cradle $195
  • 12x Polluted Delta (KTK) $10
  • 12x Flooded Strand (KTK) $10
  • 12x Windswept heath (KTK) $8
  • 12x Wooded Foothills (KTK) $8
  • 12x Bloodstained Mire (KTK) $7

“Here in Canada, we don’t have our outlets like TCGPlayer to sell our cards [as easily as in the US], and for most players, buying via TCG is such a hassle, due to shipping costs (if the seller will even ship internationally to begin with) and border fees, so the local players tend to ignore TCG, and most deals are based on StarCityGames prices. SCG is known to be terrible for pricing, but when you take the recent changes in the value of our dollar, you start to realize how cheap our cards actually are. “

“What once was TCGPlayer’s low prices against the highest buylist, I now look at the difference in foreign currencies, and see where SCG prices in Canadian dollars relates to US buylists. For example, a near-mint Underground Sea is being sold by our local stores for $300 Canadian, and Æther Games was buying them at $230 US Dollars at GP San Jose. Now when you put both into a common currency, $300 Canadian is only $239 US. You can currently buy cards in Canada for nearly buylist prices from our retail stores! As of today, the current TCG low on Flooded Strand is $12.83 USD, meanwhile our stores are essentially selling them for 11.56 USD. And many players will sell their cards for even less than that of the local stores.”

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

  • Mid: 1x Russian Thoughtseize (SP Lorwyn): $60
  • Mid: 2x Abrupt Decay (NM): $11 per
  • Mid: 9x Temur Battle Rage (NM): $1.35 per
  • Long: 10x Mind Control (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $.020 per
  • Long: 10x Kiora’s Follower (NM – Alt Art Promo): $.020 per
  • Long: 10x Vault Skirge (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $.020 per
  • Long: 10x Hall of Triumph (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $.020 per
  • Long: 10x Dictate of the Twin Gods (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $.020 per
  • Long: 10x Magister of Worth (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $.020 per
  • Long: 10x Megantic Sliver (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $.020 per

This week was a bit quiet on my side of things, as I spent more spare time playing Magic than buying cards. Standard is just in such a great spot right now, so I’m all in with no less than 5 decks on hand.

The Russian Thoughtseize is a pretty rare specialty item given that’s a Lorwyn edition, so I snapped it up for personal play use, with the potential for upside should the more common versions start pushing the price higher next year.

I continue to acquire Abrupt Decay, having start in on the card at $6 last year, and up to about 40 copies at this point. I see this powerful multi-format all-star hitting $20 within the year, as it should be free of reprint risk for the next year or two, and is one of the most powerful removal spells in both Modern and Legacy, as well as being excellent in the emerging Tiny Leaders format. It could also stall out in the mid teens, but it’s almost impossible for the card to reverse course, and that makes it a great place to store some value at the outside worst.

Temur Battle Rage first popped on my radar when I saw LSV steal a few games with it on camera in limited. The ability to deal immense amounts of damage in a hurry is much more powerful than most people realize, as both double strike and trample can easily wreck plans. Then I started seeing the card show up all over the place on MTGO, in bizarre hyper aggro builds leveraging cards like Steppe Lynx, Death’s Shadow and Wild Nacatl. It’s only a common, but it’s from a set that won’t be opened for very long on it’s own, and I can easily see these foils hitting $3-5 at some point down the road when aggro regains prominence in Modern. This is a perfect example of the kind of long shot specs you should stay away from if your funds are limited, especially if you don’t already have your allotment of cards like Abrupt Decay or Eidolon of the Great Revel.

Speaking of long shots, I picked up another 12 copies of Soulflayer around $1, because I’m convinced that this card has a future home in Modern and/or Legacy. Oddly many of my peers disagree and see this card as pure bulk. To my eyes, it’s basically Tasigur without Legendary limitations and much more upside in aggro/combo builds. Sure Tasigur only requires a single black mana vs. double black, and he has that sweet recursive ability in long games, but if Tasigur is an 8/10 on power level, I think Soulflayer is at least a 6 or 7, especially when you’re set to give him Hexproof. Travis Woo even through together a Soulflayer brew this week for Modern that looked predictably loose, yet still very powerful in the games on camera. In the hands of a more devoted brewer, and with the high potential of future synergistic cards adding to it’s power, I’m happy to be holding 20+ of this card.

Re: all the promos, they aren’t the kind of cards I tend to target, especially if they don’t represent top of mind demand, but a local LGS had them on special as 10 for $2.00 packs, unplayed, so I snapped them up to add to my trade fodder, with a few held aside for Cube and Commander decks. Given that most of these cards are already worth $1-3, that’s a pretty great deal.

Guo Heng Chin (@theguoheng)

Note: Guo Heng Chin buys from Malyasia, so his costs will tend to be different than for those of us based in the west. 

  • Long: 4 x foil Kemba, Kha Regent (NM): $3.99 per.

Guo says:

“In my article last week, I mentioned that Kemba, Kha Regent is a good pick up at under $5 and what better way to back my argument than moving in on a few myself. Kemba is a rare combination of a solid leader in Tiny Leaders who at the same time oozes casual appeal. She is also a good addition to equipment-centric Nahiri decks.

Just four copies as I am not interested in ‘buying out’ the market (nor do I have the resources to do so). Any less than four makes the $7 recorded shipping to Malaysia unjustifiable.”

 

Jared Yost

  • 1x Thassa, God of the Sea (NM Foil): $15
  • 1x Sygg, River Guide  (NM Foil): $11
  • 1x Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest (NM Promo Foil): $6
  • 1x Selvala, Explorer Returned (NM Foil): $9
  • 1x Rayne, Academy Chancellor (NM Foil): $10
  • 1x Isamaru, Hound of Konda (NM Foil): $20

Jared says:

“This is all Tiny Leaders speculation. I’m targeting foil Commanders since they are the centerpiece of their respective decks. I will continue to look for more opportunities in Tiny Leaders as the format evolves.”

 Cliff Daigle & Travis Allen

Nothing to report this week.

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

ADVERTISEMENT: Get the Cube Starter Bundle with the 3rd Edition Grimoire Deck Box, the brand new Grimoire Deck Box designed specifically for the red mage in you. 

Casual Fridays

FTV: Angels

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By: Cliff Daigle

So back when the Commander 2015 preconstructed decks were announced, I thought sure we would get Serra and a deck full of Angels.

Instead we got some equipment and it was disappointing, Containment Priest notwithstanding.

Monday, Wizards announced that this summer’s From the Vault series will be Angels! This is both better and worse than being in a preconstructed deck. Thank goodness we’re no longer getting preview cards in the FTV series, as the slots are just too precious.

Multicolor

So what are the rules for FTV? How can we know what will be in this? The last three sets have been Realms, FTV 20, and Annihilation. So we have to go back to 2011 to find a creature-based set. Since that was from a while ago, and focused on multicolor cards, I’m not treating it as a hard and fast guide, but there’s a few key points.

#1: Increase supply of some hard-to-find cards. This is straight out of Gavin Verhey’s article on FTV: Annihilation last year. This is the category that I’m least sure about, as most of the Portal Angels have already seen a reprint. FTV represents one way to get foil versions of cards that couldn’t be put into a Standard set or a special set (Conspiracy, Modern Masters)

#2: Appeal to the casual and tournament players. This usually means that there will be one valuable card and a few of other semi-pricey ones, and then cards that are almost like filler, but fun filler.

#3: Represent a range of colors and strategies from the past. I love it. This is going to be a primarily white set, as white has nearly all the Angels. So the non-white Angels are going to be a bit more likely.

#4: Be a little surprising. Think Form of the Dragon in FTV: Dragons, or Smokestack in FTV: Annihilation. This is, by far, the most fun to guess about.

Let’s go over some honorable mentions. I feel these could make it in, but they are not my #1 pick for one reason or another.

Razia, Boros Archangel
Fallen Angel
Lightning Angel
Platinum Angel
Angel of the Dire Hour
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Luminarch Ascension
Archangel of Strife
Akroma, Angel of Wrath
Archangel of Thune
Angel of Light
Avenging Angel
Blinding Angel
Emeria Angel
Empyrial Archangel
Exalted Angel
Guardian Seraph
Serra Avenger
Wayward Angel
Angel of Despair
Copper-Leaf Angel
Crypt Angel
Linvala, Keeper of Silence
Iona, Shield of Emeria

These cards represent the ‘I wouldn’t be surprised’ tier of Angels. All of these would be worthy inclusions in detailing the history of this iconic tribe. Copper-Leaf Angel is a good candidate for a surprise, but I’d really be shocked if that was in over Platinum Angel. Luminarch Ascension is a hard card to leave out, but it’s a ‘target acquired’ sort of card that if you play it, you’ll be punished all game for it. It’s a bit punishing for casual players, too.

The last two, Linvala and Iona, are a strong hunch on my part. Linvala is rather reprintable, even as a legend. She’s not more powerful than High Sentinels of Arashin, for example. I’d expect to see Linvala in another set soon, maybe even MM2015 this summer. Iona has the distinction of being one of the most unfun and non-interactive cards ever printed, allowing you to have an answer in hand but sorry! you can’t play it. I don’t think Iona will be in this set. Her price and casual appeal don’t demand a reprint the way Avacyn does.

A special note: both Guiding Spirit and Sustaining Spirit would have been on the list, except they are on the Reserved List instead.

With regard to my picks for the set, I’m going to list what I think the value will be initially and what the value will end up at. I’ll also give the financial effect on the originals, foil and nonfoil. For reference, I’m looking at things like Jace, the Mind Sculptor, who took a hit in foil and nonfoil when FTV:Twenty came out. Many cards do take a hit to the foil and nonfoil prices, Maze of Ith and Armageddon among them. I expect a similar path for these Angels.

My picks

White

Avacyn, Angel of Hope – The lock of the set. Avacyn is ridiculous in any deck that can play her, and the reason why your EDH decks need to be packing non-destructive answers like Terminus or Hallowed Burial. She’s iconic, has a great story, and is incredibly powerful.

I would expect Avacyn to be the chase card of this set, and have a price to match. History, with Jace and others, suggests that her price will be at the highest immediately and come down gradually, and in her case, very slowly. The nonfoil will drop somewhat, to about $20 or so, but I think the foil version will rebound to its current level within a few months.

Serra Angel – You may not agree with its inclusion, but the story cannot be told without the original, overpowered version. Yes, she’s overpowered. She is nearly on par with Wingmate Roc, and she was an uncommon! In many ways, removal had to be good to deal with creatures this good, which is a history Magic has spent the last couple of years overcoming.

There are a lot of promo versions of this card out there, with lots of different art. The ‘redeem’ foil featuring the original Douglas Shuler art won’t be affected at all by this printing. Every other version will take a hit and stay low, considering the sheer number of sets this card has been in: sixteen of them, not counting duel decks!

Angel of Finality – This is the first of three ‘has never been foil’ cards I’m picking for this set. It’s a surprisingly underplayed sideboard card in Legacy (you can’t pay two colorless more than Rest in Peace to get a 3/4 flyer?) and it’s a card I really like in my Kaalia deck. More people should be playing this card in Commander and Cube.

The nonfoils from Commander 2013 will lose some value, but I expect this foil to keep a surprising price for a while. A bit of warning: I wouldn’t be surprised if this ended up in a regular set sometime soon. Four mana for a 3/4 flyer plus upside is Restoration Angel.

Silver Seraph – This is a card that is more fragile, more expensive, and less surprising than Dictate of Heliod, but it remains a really awesome card. Threshold is a very easy condition to satisfy in casual formats, and this does a lot of work for you despite costing eight mana.

I think that this will be one of the more expensive cards initally, as the foils are just tough to find, being from a low point in Magic’s sales. I doubt there will be much effect on the prices of the pack foil and the nonfoil, though.

Seraph – Seven mana for a 4/4 flyer. Sure, you get to keep anything it kills or helps to kill, but it’s still a lot of mana for not a lot of effect. This has not yet had a foil, its only printings have been in nonfoil sets to date. This is exactly the sort of card that Wizards likes to dig up and put into an FTV set, just as a reminder of days gone by.

Despite the fun flavor of an angel killing a creature and then enslaving it, I expect this to be one of the cheapest cards from the set and there will be downward pressure on the nonfoil’s price as a result.

Angel of Fury – Angels have had all sorts of abilities to show that they are spirits of the next world. Angels allow others to be reborn, and this one gets reborn. It was one of two Portal candidates, and while you might not like the cost or the shuffle, it’s another card that hasn’t had a foil version yet.

The price of this card is mostly due to the low supply of Portal cards out there. Not as rare as the Three Kingdoms cards, but still not easy to find. I expect this nonfoil to take a significant hit and not really recover.

Mardu

Tariel, Reckoner of Souls – Kaalia’s compatriot in the Heavenly Inferno deck, Tariel is a very busted card if you ever have it in play. Unlike Seraph, the cards it gets will stay even if Tariel leaves play, so it’s Wrath or bust once this gets going. It’s a random effect, but in a couple of turns, you’ll just have it all.

Price-wise, this is likely to be one of the stronger cards if the set shakes out as I expect it to. Tariel is easy to include in Kaalia decks, and this will be the only foil version available for some time. The FTV price will be reasonable, but the nonfoil is going to lose value.

Red

Akroma, Angel of Fury – The only mono-red Angel, she’s color-shifted and has Morph. Bringing back this mechanic right now is a little too perfect. She also adds a nice touch to casual decks with Morphs in them, because your Morph can now be super-terrifying. It’s always baffled me a bit that this Akroma lacks haste.

This will cause a hit to the price of the Planar Chaos foil, but it will recover. Remember that a lot of people really don’t like the foiling process of the FTV cards, so they will pay a premium to get the pack foil. The nonfoils, including the Commander 2011 version, will lose some of their value but not too much.

Boros

Aurelia, the Warleader – The red/white slot is surprisingly contested. Razia, Aurelia, Basandra, and Gisela are all fine cards, but I’m going to let personal bias win this one. Aurelia is a house, capable of ending games out of nowhere, and requiring an instant-speed removal spell.

I will be sad to see her reprinted, for I picked up ten of her around $3 each and I have been pleased to see her growth. I think her nonfoil takes a small hit, but will recover in a year or so. The foil will recover faster, and be more stable.

Bant

Jenara, Asura of War – It’s tough for me to put this in over the equally-mythic Empyrial Archangel, but being a legend, and from a smaller set puts Jenara over the top. Jenara also plays well with the Tiny Leaders format, though I don’t think this set was designed recently enough for that to have been a factor.

Her price will fall slightly but it’ll go back up fairly quickly, and Tiny Leaders will help with that. I suspect the FTV price will stabilize nicely between the current foil/nonfoil split.

Black

Desolation Angel – It’s tough for me to include this over Fallen Angel or Angel of Despair. The effect that Desolation Angel offers is unique, though, and this has one of the biggest foil/nonfoil splits around. I don’t think nonfoils will be hurt at all, but the foils will take a big dive and might not recover.

Azorious

Iridescent Angel – Pristine Angel was in Conspiracy, so now the broken predecessor can have a chance to shine. I really hope this has new art, as the blue line doesn’t really say iridescence to me. This can wear an Equipment for pure profit, as only colorless flyers (or colorless reach) can block it.

This is already quite cheap in nonfoil, but expect the foils to lower by a couple of dollars for a year or so.

WUBRG

Maelstrom Archangel – Another card from Alara block, with the price to match. It’s the only five-color Angel ever, and I imagine if they had the chance, they would go back and make this Legendary for Commander players. This is a card that Kaalia of the Vast would dearly love to have on the team, but it’s just not to be.

I think that this has the most to lose when it’s reprinted. The foil is currently only about twice the nonfoil, and both of those will be hit hard by an appearance in this FTV. Supply has never been big for Conflux, so adding this special set will do significant damage to the prices. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was down half its value in either foil or nonfoil.

Non-Angel Creatures

Angelic Destiny – This is the good way to turn your non-Angels into angelic beings, and do so over and over again. It’s got a certain level of inevitability, but not on the scale of Rancor. Just four mana to add flying, first strike, and +4/+4 is pretty bonkers, even for a mythic.

This is another card that will take a beating price-wise, I think. Magic 2012, being from nearly four years ago, is not as common as you might think. I love this art, and especially in foil. I don’t believe it’ll be as bad as Maelstrom Archangel, but it will be down for a long while.

Entreat the Angels – I really love the Miracle frame in foil, and the Terminus from last year looks good to me. Entreat has popped up a few times in Legacy Miracles, and it’s a card I love in any deck with white mana.

I actually don’t think the nonfoil price will be budged at all. This is an easy card to add to any casual deck, even Tiny Leaders! The foil will take a minor ding in price, but it won’t stay down for long.

Join me next week as we look ahead to one very expensive summer!

 

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The Modern Window

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By Guo Heng Chin

A couple of days ago, I saw this on  my Twitter feed:

@Robobear82‘s request couldn’t have come at a better time with Theros block staples having just seven more months of Standard play. @Robobear82 called for a Batman #mtgfinance writer and he shall get one.  

Today we will be discussing a Magic finance fundamental: the price trajectory of Standard-legal Modern staples and when to pick them up.

Historically, the price of Standard staples from the previous block began their downward spiral around this time of the year, all the way through summer until the end of their lifespan in Standard (Although this year may be slightly different due to the new preliminary Pro Tour Qualifier system, but that’s not what we would be discussing today).

The conventional wisdom would be to pick up Standard staples for casual use or investment around rotation in September. However, as all know that Modern staples are the exception.

So when then is the best time to pick up Modern staples that are currently Standard legal? Or rather, when is a good time to pick up this card:

Argh, my hand! What are you doing to my hand!
Argh, my hand! What are you doing to my hand!

Thoughtseize was one of the most iconic discard spell ever printed in the history of Magic. Ravaging hands since 2007, Thoughtseize saw play in every single format it was legal in, including the hallowed halls of Vintage, and Commander (Duel Commander counts as Commander right).

Thoughtseize’s cross-format ubiquity and popularity in Modern (mtgtop8 ranked Thoughtseize as the 23rd most played card in Modern in 2014 – just two places behind Tarmogoyf – being present in 17.5% of Modern decks in an average of 3 copies) made it one of the most sought after Theros card.

As of writing, the Theros version of Thoughtseize stands at $19 while the Lorwyn copy hovers around $35, half of its previous high of $70. I am not sure if Thoughtseize would ever hit $70 again, but one thing for sure, that card is not going to remain at $19 a year or two down the road.

To answer our question on when is the best time to get in on Thoughtseize, let’s dig through time to have a look at how the window to pick up Modern staples evolved through the years.

The figures used in this article comes from mtgtop8.com’s format top cards list. The list describes the ubiquity of cards in each format and ranks cards by the percentage of decks in which a card was found in.

The First to Buck the Trend

Scalding TarnMisty Rainforest

Modern was announced in fall of 2011. The price of Zendikar fetchlands – which were played in every single format they were legal in – barely budged when Zendikar rotated out during the fall of 2011, unlike the rest of the standard staples from the same block. The blue fetches actually experienced a slight bump upon rotation.

The Zendikar fetches were a precursor to a new trend where the price of Standard staples that saw play in Modern, then still a fledgling format with an uncertain future (kind of like Tiny Leaders now. Shameless subliminal message plug) would not tank upon rotation.

The Last of the Invitationals

Because four Lightning Bolts were not enough.
One does not simply cast Lighting Bolt just four times.

Snapcaster Mage was a Standard powerhouse, and although he was not as pervasive in Modern as he is today, Tiago Chan’s invitational card was already considered a Modern staple when Innistrad rotated in the fall of 2013 (in 2014, Snapcaster was the most played creature in Modern, and fifth most played card with a presence in 30.8% of Modern decks, compared with 2013 when he was the second most played creature, and eleventh most played card with a mere 25.1% saturation across Modern decks). We expected no less from a card that was initially designed to be a land that could counter spells!

Let’s have a look at Snapcaster Mage’s price trajectory during his final year in Standard:

Snapcaster Mage Price Trajectory

Snapcaster trended down during the months preceding Innistrad’s rotation in September 2013 and touched $20 briefly in mid-August 2013. He hovered around $20 – $23 for five months after rotation. At the end of February 2014, Snapcaster Mage shot up to $40.

Patrick Dickmann’s Tempo Twin archetype which ran a playset of Snapcasters alongside the Splinter Twin plan was the breakout deck at Pro Tour Born of the Gods, putting the Tempo Twin archetype on the list of tier one Modern decks (though the deck debut in November 2013).

Snapcaster went down to $35 for the better part of 2014, but as of writing, seemed to be hitting a new ceiling of $45. Again in no small part due to Antonio Del Moral León taking down Pro Tour Fate Reforged with a Splinter Twin deck running three copies of Snapcasters in the main.

The window to pick up Snapcaster Mage would have been the seven month trough between July 2013 and February 2014, when he was fluctuating between $20 to $23.

All rare cards are rare, but some rare cards are rarer than others. Being two years older, Innistrad’s print run was not as high as Theros’ and as a result Snapcaster Mage has a relatively higher rarity than Thoughtseize in terms of supply rarity (last week’s Brainstorm Brewery’s Finance 101 segment dealt with this topic).

The Answer to Everything, Nearly

Abrupt Decay was printed just one year apart from Thoughtseize. and as far as I can recall, Return to Ravnica set a new precedent by being the first of the annual bestselling ever set, a testimony to either the burgeoning Magic playerbase or the fact that shocks sell.

The existence of your threat was... abrupt.
The existence of your threat was… abrupt.

Abrupt Decay enjoyed similar levels of multi-format permeation as with Thoughtseize and Snapcaster Mage, being casted in all formats it is legal in. After all, Abrupt Decay is the ultimate removal for any nonland permanents it could target.

In 2014, Abrupt Decay was present in 22.1% of Vintage decks, being played in Fish variants (sometimes up to a full four copies in the mainboard), Sultai tempo decks and Control. It was found in 18.9% of Legacy decks and was the 17th most played Modern card in 2014, with 20.7% of decks running it. Hey, its even a staple in the newest format on the block, Tiny Leaders.

The price trajectory of Abrupt Decay however, was different from Snapcaster Mage’s:

Abrupt Decay Price

Abrupt Decay bottomed out in November 2013. Its price started ascending at the beginning of February 2014, hitting $10 in the middle of March before peaking at $15 in July and has been hovering around $12 since.

The demand from Abrupt Decay was most likely from non-rotating formats; it barely saw play in the trifecta Mono Black vs UW Control vs Mono Blue Return to Ravniva – Theros Standard. Abrupt Decay was the 67th most played card in Standard, with a saturation of just 7.9% of the field.

The window to pick up Abrupt Decay shut a whole six months earlier than Snapcaster Mage. The best time to up Abrupt Decay was the two month trough between December 2013 and February 2014.

Abrupt Decay could be picked up on the cheap nine to seven months before rotation, compared to Snapcaster Mage, who could still be found on the cheap two months before rotation and up to five months post-rotation.

One More Thing

Let’s look at the price history of one more fall set Modern staple that just rotated out:

Steam Vents

While Steam Vents did not enjoyed the amount of play Snapcaster Mage and Abrupt Decay saw, Steam Vents was the third most played card in Modern in 2014, being tapped by a whooping 36.1% of decks.

Like Abrupt Decay, the best time to pick up your Steam Vents would have been between December 2013 and February 2014 when it was $7.50. There was a slight dip in the month before rotation, but Steam Vents never went below $9.

The Window for Thoughtseize

As we have seen in the price history of the few Modern cards above, the window, the window to get your hands on Standard-legal Modern staples is no longer a few months prior rotation.

Thoughtseize Price

Thoughtseize was at its bottom from July to September last year, fluctuating between $15 to $17. It went up after Ari Lax took down Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir with Abzan Midrange with four mainboard Thoughtseize and spent a couple of months above $20, but is now back at $19.

Based on the price history of Modern staples from the previous block, the window to stock up on your Thoughtseizes is probably right now.

There is one caveat: the upcoming Dragons of Tarkir Event Deck could potentially contain Thoughtseize, the way the Fate Reforge’s Clash pack contained  a copy of Hero’s Downfall, leading to a dip in the price of Hero’s Downfall right after the decklists were spoiled. If you want to be safe, you could wait until the decklist for Dragons of Tarkir’s Event Deck comes out, which should be in a few weeks time.

However,  getting in on an all-format all-star card at $19 seems pretty good. Thoughtseize could easily be a $40 card in the near future, and I think it’s worth the risk of losing a few bucks to an Event Deck reprint. If you have any questions or comments, you can find me on Twitter @theguoheng or just drop a comment below.

 

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