Unlocked Pro Trader: Stop Stopping At Obvious

Readers,

It’s no secret that Prime Speaker Zannifar is going to impact prices. It’s a dumb, linear, obvious deck and the fact that there are obvious, slam-dunk cards for it that people who don’t even play EDH saw them a mile away means that the obvious stuff gets bought out and gets bought out hard.

Hard.

HARD.

GREEK UNDERGROUND… you know the rest

The ship has sailed on a lot of “Staples” for the deck and there’s not much point of making like a greater fool and buying an Intruder Alarm now. Fortunately, readers of mine who don’t pay attention much to EDH, preferring that I pay attention to it and they pay me to pay attention may not know that there is a secret to EDH deck building.

Vannifar decks still have to include 96 more cards. The less obvious they are to people who don’t play EDH, the more money you can make.

“But Jason,” I am pretending that you are asking “surely the people who DO play and understand EDH have already purchased those cards that are not obvious to pure speculators but which have occurred to them.” Well, here’s another secret about EDH. No, they haven’t. They will put their decklist on TappedOut (don’t put your decklists on TappedOut, by the way, use Goldfish or DeckStats) or DeckStats, they’ll debate which color sleeves to put the deck in but the one thing they won’t do is buy the cards and build the deck until they have Vannifar in their hands. I don’t know why this is, but I sure appreciate it. It allows us to figure out what they’re going to build and buy it before they do.  Let’s look at the other 96 cards that aren’t obvious. Oh, and 40 of them are lands. Let’s look at the other 56 cards that aren’t obvious. Sol Ring. Let’s look at the other 55 cards that aren’t obvious.

I’m not going to show you 55 cards. Sorry, there aren’t 55 cards bound to go up, but I will show you some I think have promise.

EDHREC doesn’t have enough data to publish findings yet but googling Vannifar lists will show you that some people are already thinking pretty hard about how to make a dumb, linear combo deck with a Pod chain. I like a toolbox build but other people don’t so let’s look at the cards that are in almost every build I found.

Pod isn’t at a historic low but it’s climbing up mostly irrespective of specific demand. If this gets unbanned in Modern and you have a pile of these, you’ll look like a genius. These will go in every Vannifar deck and while far fewer Zannifar decks are going to be built than team “$20 Intruder Alarm” thinks, there will be some and you’ll move these. It looks like it’s midway through a climb anyway so smart money is betting on a graph shape like this where you know you’re getting some demand and the only question is whether you’ll get exactly as much as Vannifar gives us or more from another source. Seems low-risk to me.

This has a bit more reprint risk than I like, but I think we’re talking a short-term play here if there’s one to be made at all. This also has shrugged off a reprint in the past because it turns out it’s a very good card in EDH and does two jobs that are both important and does them in any deck due to its lack of a color identity. All of those things are pretty powerful. 11,127 is above my “magical arbitrary but meaningful to me” threshold of 10,000 decks on EDHREC and while that’s not astronomical for an artifact, there’s demand on top of Vannifar and the overall trend of the card is up.

That goes for the Commander 2013 copy as well, which celebrated its 5th birthday a few months ago and marked the occasion by tripling in value over its life.

This is better than Thornbite Staff in more decks, goes in the Vannifar deck also and there’s no reason this will ever be worth less money than Thornbite Staff. That’s all I have to say about that.

This won’t double but it will be in the decks and that’s significant. It’s not exactly doing a ton of business elsewhere and the spread continues to grow as the bottom drops out of dealer confidence in the form of lowering buylist prices. This is just used a lot, I don’t know how strongly I feel about the current metrics, but you may feel differently.

This seems to be in every list I come across and it also appears to be ticking up slowly. It’s not super likely to get a reprint and it’s a mythic from a set that there was no real pressure on anyone to buy so for those reasons alone, even irrespective of Vannifar, I like this. Vannifar makes me like it Vannifar more.

This card is also in a lot of Vannifar lists I see online and it’s likely EDHREC data will bear that out soon. This can’t get much lower as a mythic and the $1.50 foils seem awfully inviting and somewhat rare. If Thornbite Staff can flirt with $15, I don’t think $1.50 on these is out of the question, but I also don’t think you have any possibility of this going up for any reason other than Vannifar which makes me hesitate.

This was $50 once. It was also $10 once. Which one do you think it will be again first? Remember, this is the top of most pod chains when you turn your 6 drop into Avenger of Zendikar then hit this. Of course this doesn’t give your creatures haste, but if you need haste, there’s a card you should take a look at.

So this is on its way out of control and while it’s not on the Reserved List per se, reprint likelihood feels low to me and people are buying the Legends version like it IS one the Reserved List. Chronicles copies seem like endangered species and Chronicles hasn’t just been around for longer than most Magic players have played Magic, Chronicles came out before a lot of them were born. This is a $30-$40 card waiting to happen. You already have to pay in excess of $20 for a Near Mint copy on TCG Player so while the damaged copies no one wants are confounding metrics, you can safely pick off the Near Mint copies, clean out Card Shark and other peripheral sites no one does a good job of keeping an eye on and try not to trigger an avalanche.

Check yourself. There are a lot of cards I didn’t mention but some of them might be cards you personally think are worth looking at. Do you think the supply of Quirion Ranger is at a tipping point? Want to make some ballsy buys of Reserved List cards like Palinchron? Found a mispriced Staff of Domination? There are more cards that can go in the deck and I didn’t cover them all, so do some research, wait for EDHREC to give you the answers, ask around, build your own list. Do anything but gripe about how you missed the boat on cheap Intruder Alarms. You should have bought them at $2 when I said to in a QS article 6 years ago like I did. We all make mistakes. Until next time!

The Watchtower 1/7/19 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


2019 brings with it plenty of exciting Ravnica Allegiance spoilers. So far the biggest jump has been on the heels of Prime Speaker Vannifar, a creaturefied Birthing Pod. Astute readers immediately jumped on Intruder Alarm, which when paired with Vannifar should provide you a win on the spot. She sacrifices a creature to find something bigger, when that enters play it untaps her, she sacrifices sit again, etc etc. Throw a persist creature into the chain to double the bodies you have available to you. Really, the difficulty isn’t finding the win, it’s finding the setup necessary to put both cards on the table together.

Engineered Explosives (Promo)

Price Today: $70
Possible Price: $120

While they may already feel like old news by now, Ultimate Masters Box Toppers are still quite fresh in the Magic timeline. Only officially released thirty days ago, box toppers have been available for purchase in quantity for a few weeks right around Christmastime. Yet it feels like we’ve collectively moved on to Ravnica Allegiance already. I assure you though, while Allegiance is the fun thing to look at and talk about on Twitter, movement on cards like the box toppers is still going to be happening.

Explosives doesn’t need me to outline the card’s qualifications. It’s a top 25 in Modern, common in Legacy, and a staple in Cubes everywhere. There’s a reason non-foil copies are $28 despite having been reprinted a month ago.

Take a look at Inventions copies and you’ll see they’re around $120 at the moment. Those are great copies which look excellent and are truly unique. In contrast, UMA Box Toppers are clocking in around $70 right now. They’re not quite as dramatic a departure from the standard Magic appearance, but that’s no knock against them. Their borderless design is going to appeal to a wider range than the Inventions copies will. Supply is decent for a card of this nature right now, with roughly 50 on TCGPlayer (far fewer than that under $90 though). We’re rapidly approaching the end of new box topper supply if it hasn’t already stopped, which means this is as deep as the pool is going to get. When people see the borderless box toppers are $50 cheaper than the Inventions copies, they’ll gravitate towards these. It won’t be long after that before the UMA promos end up close to the Inventions.

Stony Silence (MM3 Foil)

Price Today: $13
Possible Price: $22

Six slots down from Engineered Explosives on the list of top Modern cards is Stony Silence. Like Explosives, long-time players need no introduction. Not only has it been a core piece of Modern since the format’s inception, along with Affinity, it continues to find new applications as the format evolves around it. As of late it’s useful as a tool to battle Krark-Clan Ironworks, a deck whose entire gameplan is activating artifacts. Not a bad card in that match-up, I’d say. So long as KCI keeps churning, and keeps winning, this will become more and more important.

Furthermore, we’re heading into a period where there’s an expectation that Modern staples will begin to pick up steam at the same time that the Magic index generally rises anyways. If there’s one card type that’s looking good over the next few months, it’s Modern staples.

You’ll find a few foils of this hanging around the $13 mark, but not many. (And possibly none by the time you read this.) The Modern Masters 2017 foils hit $15 quickly, and then…they’re out. Innistrad foils start close to $20, where you’ll find about two playsets, and then…they’re out. Supply is shallow on foils on both copies of this. With MM3’s arguably better art, newer frame, and cheaper entry point, this seems guaranteed to pick up to the $21 to $26 range.


Thing in the Ice

Price Today: $12
Possible Price: $23

It’s Modern Monday today, and we’re finishing with Thing in the Ice. And non-foil to boot! How often do you see me recommend those? Non-foil Modern cards. What year is it, 2013?

Thing in the Ice is just outside the top 30 cards in Modern, and an easy top 10 creature. It had modest application in Modern when it was printed in SOI, and has only managed to increase in utility with the introduction of Arclight Phoenix. That deck is proving itself capable time and time again lately, and is looking a lot like Grixis Death’s Shadow at this point. It’s going to have an insane few months, and while the format will eventually stabilize and adapt to it, it will remain a meaningful component of the Modern tapestry. That’s all very good for Thing.

You’ll find a couple Things hanging around $12 and $13, but not many. It’s into the $15 and $16 range rapidly, and supply dries up not long after. Most major retailers are out of stock. There’s been a huge run up in price on this since the development of Izzet Arclight, but frankly, if the deck keeps up, I see no reason why this won’t be a $20 to $25 card.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.



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Time to buy UMA!

Yes, you read that title right.

This week, we saw a buyout of the Box Topper version of Mikaeus, the Unhallowed, and briefly, the card was over $100. It’s settled back down in the $75 range, but that’s still about $25 more than it was.

We’ve had the two GPs that were Ultimate Masters sealed deck, and with the beginning of Ravnica Allegiance previews, we’re all staring at the new shiny things.

Meanwhile, the UMA prices are at their likely bottom, and surprisingly, some are already starting to come back up. Usually for a Masters set there’s a couple of months for the supply to work through all the channels, but that doesn’t seem to be the case here.

This means that we have some real opportunities for value, and if nothing else, I want you to get the copies you need/want now, before they go back up. In many of these cases, the prices have gotten to the point that the UMA foil is about the same price as a nonfoil from a different set.

For example…

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Cliff has been writing for MTGPrice for five years now, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP (next up: Oakland in January!) and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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