ProTrader, Sigmund Ausfresser, Unlocked ProTrader

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: MM2015 — The Unofficial MTG Stimulus

May 11, 2015 Sigmund Ausfresser 13 Comments

As a response to the Great Recession of Wall Street, the Federal Reserve initiated a multitude of stimulus programs. They initiated a massive bond buying program and they lowered interest rates to virtually zero. These two actions were done in an attempt to stimulate our economy and drive healthy motivation for investment in stocks.

The jury is still out on how sustainable the program was (is). Some dissenters will likely criticize the stimuli for years to come no matter the outcome. But regardless of what your political leaning may be, the resulting market performance since is impossible to argue with.

Turning back to MTG finance, one could argue that some particular cards have also been going through some economic turbulence. Original dual lands come to mind immediately – especially the out-of-favor color combinations. Other Legacy staples have also pulled off their recent highs by a measurable amount. Some Modern staples have also spiked recently, only to retreat to a lower price point.

What’s to become of this developing trend? Could Magic be due for a Great Recession type of pullback?

Certainly not. The game is as healthy as ever. In fact, this week I present a new thesis that supports a new surge in some card prices. Allow me to explain.

Modern Masters 2015

Who’s excited for the release of one of the highest EV sets upon release of all time? Who’s pumped up to participate in or watch the largest MTG tournaments ever? Who’s eager to draft this set, which will definitely be a Limited crowd-pleaser?

No matter your perspective, it’s difficult to argue with the hype behind Modern Masters 2015. Even if you are a complete skeptic, dripping with disdain for some of the wasted rare slots in the set (Endrek Sahr, Master Breeder?!), you’re likely excited about the future prospects of the cards that dodged reprint this set. Speculators have been very busy lately…

Six of the top ten price gainers last week were Modern cards that dodged MM2015 reprint. The Tron lands were noteworthy absences, and clearly Inkmoth Nexus and Serum Visions are strong buys on the news. Or at least, they were strong buys before the market overreacted, sending copies up excessively high overnight.

My conclusion for Modern Masters 2015: while I’m personally not ecstatic to be opening $10 packs with a high likelihood of obtaining a sub-$1 rare, the swirl this set is generating amongst the MTG finance community is nearly tangible. I’m delighted to witness hours of debate on Twitter about card prices. The buzz should continue through GP Vegas without a hitch.

If ever there was a time to engage in MTG speculation and finance, now would be it. And with the return of a Modern PTQ season, we’ve got even more reason to get excited about Modern.

MTG Stimulus: Part 1

When the Federal Reserve bought up many billions of dollars of bonds, they infused a large amount of cash into the economy. Then they reduced rates so low that there was practically no good place to park money other than into investments. The result: a rapid decline in unemployment and multiple years of double-digit gains in the stock market.

Turning back to Magic, we need to recognize how tentative people were with buying into Modern with the knowledge that a massive reprint set was on the horizon. It’s always a feel-bad when we buy cards only to watch them tank in price due to reprinting. Therefore, I suspect players and speculators held cash on the sidelines waiting for Modern Masters 2015 to be fully spoiled. Only then would there be high confidence in which targets would be safe to buy into.

Well, last Friday we received the complete spoiler from WOTC. Various absent cards created quite the surprise – namely, Tron lands, Serum Visions, Aven Mindcensor, Blood Moon, Inquisition of Kozilek, Azusa, Inkmoth Nexus, and more. It’s no surprise that many of these cards are on the move as players and speculators acquire copies for the upcoming Modern season.

In rapid-fire fashion, everyone is infusing cash into the MTG economy as they scoop up copies of the “safe” cards. This pseudo-stimulus is a combination of self-fulfilling prophecy and pent-up demand. Now that speculators know what cards are likely to further increase in value, they can invest with confidence. After all, what better place was there to invest funds than something like Inkmoth Nexus once we were certain it wasn’t in MM2015?

Now Inkmoth Nexus is a $20 card, and it will likely climb higher in the coming months. As speculators cash out on the movement they’ll have additional funds with which to work. What are they going to do with all their newfound profits?

MTG Stimulus: Part 2

I’ve got a couple ideas of where this money will go. First of all, there will likely be some great buy opportunities on my radar once MM2015 hits the market: namely, the popular reprinted cards. The Modern staples of the set are likely to sell off a bit in the coming weeks, due to both panic and the increased supply. The same thing happened with MMA on a card like Cryptic Command.

Modern demand sent this card up to around $45 in Spring 2013, but the MMA reprint caused a rapid decline back to the $30 mark. But about eight months after the sell-off, Cryptic Command rebounded like never before, shooting up to $70.

Now once again, we’re seeing a rapid sell-off. The blue instant is already back down to $50, with momentum suggesting this could go even lower. But this begs the question: will history repeat itself? Will Modern grow in popularity even more, sending Cryptic’s price right back up to new highs in eight months? It’s certainly not impossible, and I’d wager this was WOTC’s plan. They are hoping to support and stimulate interest in the Modern format with these Modern Masters sets, and time will tell how successful they will be with round two.

Either way the reprinted cards in MM2015 are bound to sell off, but eventually they’ll bottom. When that happens, we as speculators should recognize the buying opportunity screaming at us. And with their newly-minted coin from the recent movement in non-reprinted cards, they’ll buoy the MTG economy into these headwinds.

If you’re not bullish on the Modern format, or if you’re concerned about further reprints in other sets, I have some good news. MM2015 reprints aren’t the only solid buys once the dust settles.

As players discover their Inkmoth Nexus and Serum Visions are suddenly worth a bunch more, they’ll be likely to sell/trade excess copies away. Additionally, [lucky] players will suddenly come into all kinds of money when they pull Goyfs, Cliques, and Bobs in their MM2015 packs, not to mention a lineup of Eldrazi. What will the lucky ones do with their valuable pulls?

While it’s true some players will determine that opening a Goyf is the perfect motivator to sleeve up Abzan Midrange in Modern, I suspect many others will be cashing out of their valuable pulls. After all, if we are assuming the Modern Masters 2015 reprints are likely to lower prices, that means the market must see increased supply. That’s natural supply & demand logic – for the price to drop, demand must drop (not likely) or supply must rise. If supply is rising, that must mean people are selling more copies. Likely this will mean their newly-opened copies…after the initial panic, such as what we’re seeing in charts like Cryptic Command and Noble Hierarch.

As players cash out of their Modern staples, what do you think they’ll look to buy? I saw a well-phrased tweet last weekend from an individual I have high respect for in the MTG finance community.

I can’t vouch for Pucatrade specifically, but I condone his overall strategy 100%. Judging by all the favorites this tweet received, I can tell we’re not alone in this sentiment. Moving high-dollar Modern cards into equities on the Reserved List is a brilliant strategy. You’re basically capitalizing on short-term price fluctuations in the Modern market by moving into cards that will never see reprint again. Even if Inkmoth Nexus does rise to $30 during Modern season, we know it will see reprint eventually, right?

Meanwhile, Tropical Island will never see reprint.

This particular dual land has been out of favor for months now, but perhaps the recent stimulus of MM2015 is just the catalyst needed for movement. Although not on the Reserve List, Wasteland is another Legacy staple that could use some stimulus – the Nonbasic land has stumbled over 50% from its highs.

If high-end Legacy staples aren’t your forte, then picking up other Reserve List cards may be a more optimal strategy. We just saw Ragnar jump in price on Tiny Leaders speculation; why not grab a couple Lady Evangela? I hope to in Vegas, in fact. Or better yet, pick up a couple Old Man of the Seas (Old Men of the Sea?). These have been gaining traction lately. I even see casual stuff like Divine Intervention and Island of Wak-Wak show up on the MTGStocks Interests page on occasion. Not only is this on the Reserve List, there’s really nothing else like it. I have a sneaking suspicion Wizards will never again print a card that forces the game to end in a draw. And what casual Reserve List discussion is complete without mention of my favorite Magic card of all time, Shahrazad?

You’ll never see a sudden buyout of this card, but it’s worth noting how the top buy list price has gradually been on the rise for the last 2 years.

No matter your personal preference, moving out of spiking Modern cards or recently-opened MM2015 goodies and into Reserve List favorites is a tried-and-true strategy I recommend. It’s a great way to lock in profits and reduce risk at the same time.

Wrapping It Up

A significant amount of money is going to exchange hands this summer. Speculators will rampantly acquire non-reprinted Modern cards. Players will be opening high-dollar cards left and right. This will lead to a sudden surge of value in the MTG economy – a type of stimulus.

My prediction: this stimulus will be just what the MTG economy needed for the past few months. Modern interest will jump and demand for Legacy and casual staples will go higher as well. If you want to get ahead of the curve, consider moving into cards on the Reserve List now, as Xemit suggested. I’ve provided a few sound suggestions, and I’m sure there are many others worth considering.

The tide will rise once more, lifting all ships. Therefore it is a great time to have exposure to MTG assets. My portfolio is currently the largest it has been since I sold out of Legacy over two years ago, and I look forward to seeing my holdings appreciate in value in the coming months thanks to this unofficial stimulus.

…

Sig’s Quick Hits

If you have a large quantity of Modern stuff to move, one sound acquisition target is Bazaar of Baghdad. In fact in the last couple weeks Star City Games increased their price on the Vintage staple from $399.99 to $449.99 for NM copies. It’s a steep price of entry, but you can be confident in this long-term investment’s prospects should MTG continue to grow.
One Modern/Legacy card that is not seeing nearly enough buzz is Slaughter Pact. The card managed to dodge reprint in MM2015 (unlike in MMA), meaning we’re not getting any new supply of this rare. Every time I search for the card on SCG’s site, it is out of stock. Today is no exception, and the $10 price tag is almost guaranteed to rise as we head into Modern season.
Lion’s Eye Diamond gets very little buzz in the MTG finance community, but the Reserve List card has been a Legacy staple for years. Currently SCG is sold out of this one as well, with a NM price tag of $86.29. There are probably a few more exciting pick-ups to target with newfound profits, but no one can argue with the low risk of LED. The card is off its highs much like other Legacy staples, and this stimulus could help rekindle interest.

James Chillcott, Modern Masters, Uncategorized, What We're Buying

MTGFinance: What We’re Buying/Selling This Week (May 9/15)

May 9, 2015 James Chillcott 27 Comments

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It has occurred to us at MTGPrice that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when our writing team actually puts our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series breaking down what we’ve been buying and selling each week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we were up to this week:

Buying Period: May 3 – May 9th, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

BOUGHT

1x Myth Realized (foil) @ $7.00
1x Griselbrand @ $13.50
1x Whisperwood Elemental @ $8.50
1x Temple Garden @ $8.25
1x Mana Confluence @ $7.50
1x Scavenging Ooze (Russian promo foil) @ $11
2x Pharika, God of Afflication @ $3.25/per
2x Siege Rhino (foil) @ $16
Mutavault (Japanese) @ $10
1x boxes of Modern Masters 2015 @ $230

SOLD:

6x Modern Masters 2015 @ $255 USD ($210 cost)

SOLD (Pucatrade)

1x Grafdigger’s Cage (foil) @ $19.00 (pack opened)
1x Tarmogoyf @ $195.00 ($135 cost)
1x Wilt Leaf Liege @ $29.42 (pack opened)
1x Sensei’s Divining Top @ $32.41 (pack opened)
1x Horizon Canopy @ $34.65 ($18 cost)
5x Steam Vents @ $13.20 ($8.25 cost)

My total haul of MM2 boxes now stands at 20+. The revelation of the full set list through plenty of folks for a loop, as the final rares list was significantly less exciting than many had hoped for. Running the Estimated Value (EV) calculation on the set however has revealed that much of the value has simply been shifted to the mythics and the current EV per pack is very close to the MSRP of $9.99. This means that opening a box at MSRP is roughly equivalent to the math on opening a box of MM1 in the summer of 2013, which featured a similar EV. Each pack you open will feature higher variance, but the more packs you open the more likely you are to even out your opens. As such, I’m expecting the EV to fall off in the weeks following the triple Grand Prix into the $7-8 range as people sell off their opens. If the set is constricted on supply and/or considered too risky by players to open frequently, I would expect the box trajectory to follow a similar path to MM1, with less total upside. My current target is $325 on boxes by December 2015. Even if dealers end up having more supply than my sources have told me they will, a neutral EV out of the gate is unlikely to motivate them to open enough boxes to further tank the singles market on the mythics. We now need to see how the draft format is received, because a great format will drive sales and pack openings, and push EV further down the curve, whereas a bad draft format could keep the price of key cards relatively stable. More on this as the issues play out.

Most of my singles purchases this week were simply opportunistic grabs at prices below retail, or cards I expect to continue rising heading into fall.

Pucatrade was a huge help this week, allowing me to out MM2 reprints like Leyline of Sanctity, Wilt Leaf Liege and Tarmogoyf at full value. I now have about $700 worth of Pucapoints, accumulated since the end of March, and my goal is to trade into a mox on that platform before the end of summer.

Guo Heng Chin

TRADES

Thunderbreak Regent (out) for one Dragonlord Dromoka (in).

Jared Yost

PURCHASES

4x Willow Satyr @ $13.96
4x Gravity Sphere @ $11.76 + $1 shipping

Jarod says:

“I’ve picked up these Reserve List cards due to some analysis I did on Legends and potentially undervalued cards on the Reserve List.”

Note: The rest of the guys were quiet this week.

Bonus Tips:

Putting some money aside for the two weeks after the triple MM2 GPs across the globe is a solid notion indeed. Tens of thousands of packs will be opened at those tournaments and many of those players will be looking to sell of sweet opens that they don’t need for their own decks to recoup some of their trip costs. This should lead to a plethora of good deals as the sellers crowd each other out in a race to the bottom of the price ladder. This will also be the period where key standard cards will start to bottom out into their usual summer doldrums, and great cards from Khans block are likely to be in bargain territory with so much focus on Modern cards.
Before you plow too much money into the Eldrazi from MM2, keep in mind that we are very likely to get even more exciting Eldrazi this fall in Battle for Zendikar. Since the Eldrazi characters are set in stone, new versions could easily injur the price points on the earlier editions if they prove more interesting to collectors.
The absence of man-lands, Inquisition of Kozilek and Goblin Guide leaves me wondering whether WOTC will simply reprint some or all of these cards in the fall. This makes me very hesitant to get in on any of them right now.
As I’m writing this Yohan Dudognon is 7-0 at GP Paris running an entirely new multi-color Collected Company deck running Mantis Rider, Savage Knuckleblade and Elspeth, Sun’s Champion. He just tapped out end of turn for Stoke the Flames tapping Riders and Knuckleblades so he has my full attention. Bottom line: Collected Company is proving to be a flexible and powerful magic card. Foils should be top targets while they’re cheap. I have them breaking $20 later this year.

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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Ginger Ale

Coolest Ginger You Know (Part 1)

May 8, 2015 Houston Whitehead 5 Comments

By: Houston Whitehead

It only takes a few games of Magic to start applying subconscious shortcuts. In society, stereotyping is a cognitive shortcut to help gauge understanding of an individual. Though stereotyping is frowned upon, it’s virtually impossible to remove its process from your brain. What’s interesting is the vast difference between self-stereotyping (self-image) and projected stereotyping (defining those around you relative to personal experiences). Since everyone’s life experiences, ideas, and understandings vary, the only opinions worth caring about are probably just your own. Obviously careers in the public eye turn these theories on their head but that’s beside the point. That said, my goal today is to thoroughly introduce myself the MTGPrice.com readers through my personal perceptions, opinions, experiences.

Since I am a player, trader, collector, writer, and content creator, I feel it would only be appropriate to introduce myself under each hat.

About Me…

…as a Player

I picked up my first cards during Lorwyn Block in High School. Newly made friends inaccurately introduced me to an already complicated game during Web Design III class. Since the school kept deleting Doom and Pocket Tanks from our computers, it was time to try out strategic cardboard. Again, my friends didn’t understand many of the rules so our already terrible tribal decks had zero chance of redemption from play skill. My whole collection was from buying a pack or two with loose change from my car during random afterschool visits to a baseball card shop.
A couple years later I was looking for some extra money and found my shoe box full of cards and traded them into a local shop. Of course, I was ripped off by the manager and offered $100 credit or $50 cash. I was offended at the cash offer and told him I’d think about the credit offer. I saw a guy from high school playing MTG at a nearby table and found out I was playing the game ALL WRONG! With this new information my competitive nature was intrigued and I’ve been healthy addicted to cardboard crack ever since.
The style of decks I prefer to pilot can best be described as synergistic. I’m addicted to value and prefer to cast and/or recur out of my graveyard whenever possible. This usually lands me in a variety of midrange strategies. That said, I will always have a special place in my heart for spell-heavy mono red burn.
I participate in the following formats: Standard, Modern, Legacy, EDH, Legacy Pauper, Pauper Cube, and most Limited formats.

…as a trader

I trade for three reasons. First, I trade to complete a deck I would like to pilot. Obviously the most common reason for trading. Second, I value trade to turn my soft cards into solid cards. Standard Examples: Soft = Thunderbreak Regent & Scry Lands. Solid = Fetch lands & Thoughtseize. Third, I trade to collect which I will talk about later.
My goal for each non-value trade is to make 10% profit. It doesn’t always happen and every trade is different but having goals helps keep me from getting emotions involved in trading. Otherwise, I would just trade everything they want to them.
Speculating is one of the most enjoyable parts of trading for me. I even have a binder where I keep all my specs at. Many friends ask to go through my specs/staple binder and either shoot a chuckle or gasp my way. Truly a binder full of free entertainment.
I prefer to trade using eBay Completed listings but also accept MTGPrice.com’s Fair Trade Price. Many other online vendors flex their prices via stock quantity or what a Pro wrote about this week.

…as a collector

First goal when a set is released is acquiring a playset of all dual lands in Standard. I don’t care if they are expensive. Knowing you already have the duals makes building a deck x10 easier. That should-probably-might be a real statistic. This also enable you to help your friends that might be on a tighter budget or want to try out a deck before they invest.
i’m a dog for full art. From full art foil Lightning Bolts to the newest Game Day promos, I aim for a playset of each. The JSS Promos will be the hardest for me to acquire but I enjoy the thought of adding them to my collection.
Pauper foils are a new addiction that has bleed over from foiling out my pauper cube. I made a pauper gauntlet with the eight best decks in the format and am slowly foiling out each deck when I find pieces I need. I will always be a lover of Pauper and if you can’t afford a Legacy deck, I truly feel legacy pauper has wider decision trees than Standard or Modern.

Next week I’ll share detail about me as a writer and as a content creator.

As always thanks for reading

@TNSGingerAle

Casual Fridays

The Floor on DTK

May 8, 2015 Cliff Daigle 11 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

I have a confession to make: I’m trading for Dragonlord Ojutai.

Not only am I trading for those, I’m giving up fetch lands and other long-term staples for them.

Why? I think that when Battle for Zendikar is out, demand is going to be even higher for Ojutai, Atarka, and likely Silumgar as well.

As for why I’m trading for in-print mythics that go for about $40, $19, and $16, well, hear me out.

I’ve said before that DTK cards have a unique situation, being two packs of a draft format when it’s a big set. I have written that Modern Masters 2015 is going to impact the supply of DTK opened. Magic Origins is going to eclipse it soon too.

We are going into a perfect storm of low supply and awesomely good cards.

To be clear, I don’t think every cards in Dragons has potential. I am especially leery of Dromoka’s Command, because I think that will get a ton worse without making someone sacrifice enchantment creatures like Courser of Kruphix. Hunt the Weak at instant speed for two mana is good, but it’s not $10 good.

What will be good in Standard when Theros is gone? Some form of blue-white control shell with three Ojutai. Perhaps Esper dragons stays on top with some Silumgar as well. Seems like a safe card to want, what with a new generation of Eldrazi on the horizon, begging to be stolen.

What’s impressed me is how good Atarka, Silumgar, and the why-the-heck-is-this-five-mana Ojutai are at, well, everything. Ojutai especially has been impressive, and it’s worth considering that even near $40, there’s room to grow…but with 20% of its growth having been in the past two weeks, I’m not sure how high it can or will go.

I think that players are always going to want to play a control deck with just a few creatures. I don’t know if losing Dissolve and all the extra Scry will decimate the deck or what.

I am convinced, though, that you should get your three copies now if you want to play with Ojutai.

What else from Dragons am I looking for?

Dragonlords Atarka and Silumgar

These are not four-of Dragons, mainly due to their cost. These are accessory Dragons, finishers, and their price reflects their less-used nature. They are better than Ojutai at affecting the board, but are more vulnerable to being killed immediately. I believe that removal which can deal with these is going to be at a premium. Valorous Stance does it, as do a couple of Charms, Hidden Dragonslayer, but with Hero’s Downfall leaving soon there’s not a lot of cheap ways to kill these Dragonlords.

Sidisi, Undead Vizier

I really like Sidisi as a spec target for the coming year. It’s a cheap cost, though no playable creature is as expendable as Satyr Wayfinder. The body you get, though, is tough to dance with even if the creature is vulnerable to Ultimate Price.

Thunderbreak Regent

As Guo pointed out earlier this week, the Game Day promo version is a hot commodity right now. It’s a 4/4 for 4, flying, that bolts the opponent killing it. This is a powerful and cheap creature, and any deck in Standard has to have a plan for seeing it on turn four or even three.

This IS a four-of, because it is disgusting in multiples. The price should remain stable while it’s in Standard, and has a good chance to go up in the coming months.

Foil Rending Volley

I said it a while ago: this is the Legacy and Modern sideboard card. The original is fifty cents and the foils are over $6. It’s so good at so many things, and it might even be a Standard sideboard answer for Ojutai. Get them while you can!

Deathmist Raptor

The way this combos with Den Protector is just filthy-rich in value. The endless looping of two Den Protector and the relative lack of graveyard hate make Raptor tough to deal with long-term. Both of these cards are growing in value as they fit together like peanut butter and jelly. Every Standard deck for the next 12 months has to have a plan for these cards, and playing the mirror can be the grindiest.

I think both of these cards will be even more expensive come the end of Magic Origins.

Monastery Mentor

While not in Dragons of Tarkir, this mythic has slid down to $16 as it’s been opened in one pack of drafts for the past six months or so. This is an easy pickup for gaining value, because it fits so nicely with Delver decks. I’m listening if you want to make the case of this vs. Young Pyromancer, but look at the Pyro’s foil price if you want to see its Legacy impact.

I like Mentor to break $25 before all is said and done.

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