Tag Archives: MTG finance

Danny Brown, Unlocked ProTrader

The Spec Evaluation Cheat Sheet

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As MTG financiers, we see a lot of ideas thrown around for speculation targets. We have a good understanding of what kinds of events can drive prices, but my goal with this article is to streamline the vetting process for cards that we’re considering buying. This will allow us evaluate more cards more quickly, leading us to the best speculative purchases we can make. Ready?

Relevant Factors

Let’s briefly go through the relevant factors we can evaluate before buying in on a card.

Formats

What format(s) does the card see play in? Here’s a quick breakdown of how cards are impacted by particular formats:

Standard: Prices can move quickly based on players’ tournament needs, but prices are volatile and will not last, especially once rotation starts to loom.

Modern: Cards in this format just get more and more expensive. If a card is a multi-deck staple, a four-of, appears on MTG Goldfish’s format staples list, see play in other formats, is old, and/or has other contributing factors, prices can get really high. Modern Masters sets mean that every card in the format is at risk of reprint, however.

Legacy: As MTGPrice’s Travis Allen notes, Legacy is starting to drive prices less than it has in the previous five years. That doesn’t mean it can’t still make cards expensive, but it’s not as cut-and-dry as it used to be.

Vintage: A relative few number of players enjoys Vintage, but those that do have invested lots of money in the format. If a card is old or foil, there’s a chance Vintage will make it expensive, but the format isn’t widespread enough to impact the prices of most newer cards, especially non-foils.

Commander: Commander is likely the most popular casual format these days, and this allows it to drive prices on highly demanded cards. That said, as a one-of format, cards have to see play in many different archetypes to see huge spikes—one-archetype players are usually not worth much, even if they’re really good. MTGPrice’s Jason Alt does a great job focusing on the financial implications of Commander week-in, week-out.

Cube: Cube is gaining in popularity, but since not every player needs to own one, it’s really hard for Cube alone to impact a card’s price. It has the largest effect on foil prices, since they’re so much scarcer.

Print Run

A card printed in a large, fall set will have many more copies in existence than one printed in a small, follow-up set. When considering speculating on one of two cards with all other things being equal, you should pretty much always go with the one in shorter supply.

It’s important to know about additional printings, though. If you search for a card like Tasigur, the Golden Fang, you’ll see only the Fate Reforged printing, but that ignores the fact that the card was printed in an Event Deck. This additional influx in supply hurt Tasigur’s price, and if you’re considering buying or selling the card, this is useful information to know. Intro Packs are another source of additional printings for a card that might not necessarily show up when searching to see which sets a card was printed in. By contrast, things like Duel Deck and From the Vault printings will show up as separate sets, making them much easier to identify.

Print run and format demand are both relatively easy to approximate, although we should note that Magic players aren’t given enough information for us to know the exact numbers on these things. Nonetheless, some of the other factors—while no less relevant to a card’s price—are harder to identify.

Likelihood of Reprint

This is honestly just a judgment call. When you have a card from the Reserved List, the judgment call is pretty easy to make—it won’t be reprinted—but when you have something like Abrupt Decay, things get more difficult. You have to consider questions like: what products is this most likely to see a reprint in? what upcoming products would make sense to have this as an inclusion? is its set likely to be covered by the next Modern Masters? Obviously, the answers to all these questions and similar ones are highly speculative, but we have all kinds of resources to help us make educated guesses—and that’s exactly what we need to be doing.

Historical Comparisons

What similar cards have been printed in the past? How did they perform financially? Is this card better, worse, or just different from those other ones? Does it outclass them or is it outclassed by them? If it’s a reprint, how did the first printing perform?

Standard Legality

Is the card legal in Standard? For how much longer? Will it go up or down at rotation? How much is its price predicated on Standard?

These are some of the big-picture things we want to keep an eye on, but it’s getting tough to consider this in the abstract. Let’s move on to a case study.

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger

With a Fair Trade Price as of this writing of $19.97, Ulamog has seen nearly a $5 increase in the past month. Might it still be a good buy? Let’s go down the list of the relevant factors.

Formats

  • Lots: Commander/Cube
  • Some: Standard/Modern (still being determined)
  • None: Legacy or Vintage (not replacing Emrakul any time soon)

Print Run

  • Rarity: Mythic rare
  • Set size: Large, fall set—the most recent, meaning one of the highest print runs of all time.
  • Additional printings: No supplementary product or promotional printings (except for prerelease)

Likelihood of Reprint

  • In a Standard-legal expansion? Very low
  • In a supplementary product (DD, EV, Commander, etc.)? Low
  • In a premium product (FTV, judge foil, etc.)? Medium
  • In Modern Masters 2017? Very low
  • In Modern Masters 2019? High

Historical Comparisons

  • Highest prices of original three Eldrazi: $54.98; $64.98; $69.98 (approximately three years after release)

Standard Legality

  • Entered Standard fall 2015; leaves spring 2017
  • Price tied to Standard? Very little
  • Expected losses from rotation? Very low
  • Expected gains after printing stops? High

Of course, much of the above consists of opinion, estimations, educated guesses, and wild assumptions. Nonetheless, using the above cheat sheet can help us get closer to an objective consideration of all the factors that might influence our decision to buy or sell a card.

To summarize my above bulletpoints in prose form: Ulamog will be in high demand by casual players, and we’ve seen what that kind of demand can do for Eldrazi titans in the historical comparisons. He comes from a highly opened set, but is a mythic rare with no additional printings, and a relatively small chance of being reprinted before Modern Masters 2019. As a card being impacted very little by Standard, it’s likely that Ulamog’s price won’t be affected by rotation and we can pick these up freely right now.

Let’s do one more case study before we close today.

Thoughtseize (Theros)

Thoughtseize

With a Fair Trade Price of $19.40 today, Thoughtseize hasn’t exactly set the world on fire the way we expected after rotation.

Formats

  • Lots: Modern/Legacy/Vintage/Cube
  • Some: N/A
  • None: Standard, Commander

(Not that the card is in zero Commander decks, but one-for-one discard isn’t especially potent in the format.)

Print Run

  • Rarity: Rare in Lorwyn (2007) and rare in Theros (2014)
  • Set size: Both printings were in large, fall sets
  • Additional printings: No supplementary product or promotional printings

Likelihood of Reprint

  • In a Standard-legal expansion? Virtually nil
  • In a supplementary product (DD, EV, Commander, etc.)? Very low
  • In a premium product (FTV, judge foil, etc.)? High-ish (an eternal staple with no promos or unique premium versions seems suspect to me)
  • In Modern Masters 2017? Possible but unlikely
  • In Modern Masters 2019? A little more possible but still unlikely

Historical Comparisons

  • Before the Theros printing, Lorwyn Thoughtseize topped out above $75.
  • The current price of the original printing is $40.15, more than double the Theros version.

Standard Legality

  • Not legal in Standard
  • Price tied to Standard? N/A
  • Expected losses from rotation? N/A
  • Expected gains after printing stops? High

Everyone expected Thoughtseize to go up after rotation, but so far it has disappointed. Nonetheless, as a four-of staple in every eternal format that has only two printings (albeit at rare in large, fall sets), this is bound to gain in price eventually. Nevertheless, I’m not excited to buy today based on the plummeting buylist price of late:

thoughtseizechart

Keeping an eye on that blue line will tell you when to buy—and this is more or less guaranteed to be a good spec target at some point. Keep a close eye here.

Now You Do It

I’ve shown you a couple examples, show me your breakdown of a speculation target you like in the comments. Here’s the outline:

Formats

  • Lots:
  • Some:
  • None:

Print Run

  • Rarity:
  • Set size:
  • Additional printings: 

Likelihood of Reprint

  • In a Standard-legal expansion?
  • In a supplementary product (DD, EV, Commander, etc.)?
  • In a premium product (FTV, judge foil, etc.)?
  • In Modern Masters 2017?
  • In Modern Masters 2019?

Historical Comparisons

  • Past printings of this card?
  • Comparable cards?

Standard Legality

  • Entered Standard _____; leaves ______
  • Price tied to Standard? 
  • Expected losses from rotation? 
  • Expected gains after printing stops? 

Pricing Trends

  • Retail price direction?
  • Buylist price direction?

Thanks for reading. Until next time!

ProTrader, Sigmund Ausfresser

PROTRADER: The Winners vs. Losers Debate

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While navigating a tumultuous stock market and a rapidly evolving MTG market, I often find parallels between the two worth sharing. While sometimes not directly applicable, strategies from one economy can educate us on how we should consider the other. This is perhaps my favorite part about writing for this site – the freedom I have to explore the similarities between the two in an academic way.

However not everything between the two matches up perfectly. Sometimes a mindset that is commonly applied in the stock market doesn’t make sense to consider in MTG finance.

This week I will write about another paralleled question between Wall Street and MTG finance. You’ll notice along the way that the questions don’t fit 100%, but they still trigger worthwhile discussion that leads to an actionable recommendation. Through this framework I believe we can make some deterministic conclusions around what the best pick-ups are going forward as we enter 2016.

The premise: it’s all about winners vs. losers. Allow me to explain.

Winners or Losers

 One of my favorite podcasts (besides Brainstorm Brewery of course) is the port of the television show Fast Money. The CNBC show is all about traders and their reactions to the constant fluctuations and news of the stock market. They do a nice job keeping things entertaining – although I’ll admit the traders, while “famous”, make their fair share of errors. I never follow their direction blindly. But I do like the way they pose up questions and analyses.

One question they consider frequently that I really enjoy is whether or not one should look to buy the “winner” or “loser” of a given segment. For example, they may touch on retail stocks and discuss whether one should buy a beaten up stock such as that of Macy’s or a recent winner like Nike. In a nutshell, they’re addressing whether they feel it’s better to ride the momentum of the winner or bet on a catch-up play from the loser.

Macy's

The question is certainly worth considering seriously. By definition the losing stock, such as Macy’s, is certainly out of favor on Wall Street. Meanwhile Nike is basically the darling of the Dow, having the best 2015 performance of the 30 stock index. However as long as the “loser” is still profitable, at some point it may become an attractive enough value to pick up. Conversely the winner may be getting too expensive, facing resistance to the upside.

Now let’s try to apply this to Magic finance. Random buyouts aside, prices rise and decay in MTG due strictly to supply and demand. There really isn’t as strong of an equivalent of “in-favor” and “out-of-favor” like there is in the stock market. There’s far less emotional selling and buying (not zero, but certainly less). Macy’s is certainly hated right now and Nike is a hedge fund’s dream. W can’t necessarily draw this parallel to, say, Khans fetches and Zendikar fetches perfectly. But we can try.

Delta

Tarn

Over the past few months, Scalding Tarn has spiked, pulled back, and then continued its rise. More importantly, buylists on the Zendikar fetches has consistently risen for the most part. On the other hand vendors are paying less on Polluted Delta now than they were over the summer. You could say Khans fetches aren’t in favor right now while their Zendikar counterparts certainly are.

These trends are driven purely by fundamentals. There isn’t any excessive emotional momentum at play here – Standard players are moving their Khans fetches in anticipation of rotation and this volume is outweighing Modern and Legacy demand, where as Zendikar fetches aren’t facing that same pressure. It’s as simple as that. If asked which is the better pickup, I’d argue both will ultimately trend together once Khans is well out of Standard. Until then, the play is to stick with the “winner” – not because of momentum, but because Scalding Tarn and Verdant Catacombs will particularly experience greater demand as we enter 2016 while Khans fetches continue to suffer from rotation.

Another Winner/Loser Comparison: Counterspells

 Occasionally, a publicly traded company will announce a secondary offering. This is essentially the creation of more stock to raise cash. The practice dilutes value of current shareholders by increasing the supply in the market. In a way, it’s kind of the equivalent of a reprint. Except often times a company offers more shares to raise capital for a given investment, which is intended to pay out in the long term. Reprints in Magic offer zero long term benefit.

Because of this difference, a winner/loser comparison involving reprints is again not a perfect parallel with the stock market. But I can still use the setup of winner versus loser to provide guidance on where I think the market goes from here. For example, let’s compare the relative “winner” Force of Will with a reprinted Modern counterpart, Cryptic Command.

Force

Cryptic

Force of will has shown cyclical behavior over the past few years, but the general direction is upward. Cryptic Command on the other hand, spiked in Spring 2014 but has since pulled back drastically due to the Modern Masters 2015 reprint. Once again, this isn’t an emotional reaction in price – the supply of Cryptic has increased significantly, impacting fundamentals.

If I assume supply will remain constant going forward (i.e. no more reprints), my recommendation is to follow the option with more demand upside in the future: Cryptic Command. Modern is growing in popularity and has the Pro Tour season to support demand. On the other hand, Legacy demand may falter as there are fewer premier Legacy tournaments in 2016 than recent years. While the cyclical nature of Force of Will may suggest there’s upside in the next 3 months, I can’t imagine the growth is significant enough to merit a material investment. I’d much prefer getting into Cryptic Command, betting on the next Modern surge.  It also helps that we have data on other Modern Masters reprints that have since recovered in price.

One More Comparison: Discard

Perhaps the most difficult winner/loser comparison lies in the one-drop discard spell category. Which is the better pickup: Inquisition of Kozilek (winner) or Thoughtseize (loser)?

Seize

Inquisition

Looking at the charts above, we see that the top buy price of Inquisition has risen from $3 to nearly $8 throughout 2015. Meanwhile the top buy price of Theros Thoughtseize has decreased from around $11 to $10 after hitting a peak over the summer. The fact that these two discard spells are nearing parity in price is baffling given their discrepancy in rarity and (supposed) power level.

While it’s fair to ask the question of which is the better pickup, once again we have a situation where prices are driven strictly by fundamentals. The supply of Thoughtseize is higher than that of Inquisition despite the rarity difference. This is due to the recent printing of Thoughtseize in the high print-run set Theros. On the other hand Inquisition of Kozilek was opened far less being a third set from years ago. Once again this isn’t a love/hate comparison like Macy’s and Nike – this isn’t about emotions.

Still, the question begs an answer. If I was forced to choose, I’d have to ask for another month to decide. Why a month? Because I want to see what gets printed in Oath of the Gatewatch first. With the recent Kozilek spoiler, a reprint of Inquisition of Kozilek makes tremendous sense. I simply cannot advocate picking up copies of this discard spell until we confirm it is not getting reprinted. Assuming it dodges reprint again, I’d recommend Inquisition. Until then, the safer pickup is Thoughtseize.

Wrapping It Up

 Momentum is a term that’s thrown around often on Wall Street. A stock that has done well over recent months is considered to be “in-favor”, sometimes leading to continued upward movement. On the other hand a hated stock can sometimes get beat up unfairly simply because of its recent poor performance. Macy’s and Nike are two stocks that reflect this dichotomy. Another good example would be the Facebook/Twitter pair. The former is incredibly well-run and has the dedicated support from Wall Street. The latter has struggled to grow its user base, and therefore it has been an absolute dog of the Nasdaq. With each passing day, Facebook seemingly climbs higher while Twitter gets beaten up, perhaps unfairly, even more and more.

The same comparisons can be made in the Magic market. However, buyouts aside MTG cards don’t really exhibit emotional “momentum” in the same fashion. Typically price movements happen due to fundamental shifts in supply and demand. Still, the winner/loser debate is one that is certainly applicable to MTG finance. The choices really are boundless: Wasteland (loser) or Dark Depths (winner)? Jace, the Mind Sculptor (loser) or Liliana of the Veil (winner)? Dark Confidant (loser) or Stoneforge Mystic (winner)? Each choice presents two options: either bet on a card that’s already moved up significantly or bet on a card that is seeing fundamental decay in price.

Perhaps looking at these comparisons can help us conclude a broader opinion of the market. For example, my predisposition to choose Zendikar fetches over Khans fetches and Inquisition of Kozilek (barring reprint) over Thoughtseize is an indicator that I prefer Modern cards printed at least a couple years ago over recently printed cards. But my pick of Cryptic Command over Force of will indicates my belief in Modern’s future success over that of Legacy. Such broadening conclusions can really help dictate one’s ongoing investment strategy.

In fact, that’s essentially what I’ve done here. By starting with some individual questions, I’ve boiled down my investment strategy going forward. I’m going to target Modern cards over Legacy cards and older cards over newer. While perhaps not so clear cut, these guiding principles will ensure I think more mechanically about my options before committing funds in a directionless fashion. If nothing else, this winner/loser exercise has helped me this much.

I’d recommend considering these comparisons and using your own answers to drive broader investment strategies. Perhaps you’ll surprise yourself with where you end up. If nothing else, you’ll think more diligently about the many investment decisions we face on a daily basis. Just remember – in MTG finance prices don’t move on momentum (besides buyouts). Card prices rise and decay due to shifts in supply and demand. Wasteland isn’t down in price because it’s simply hated – it is genuinely in less demand relative to six months ago. So when picking losers, be cognizant of the evolving metagame and format favorability. We all like an underdog, but picking one with the right risk/reward equation will be the best way to bank on these out-of-style cards throughout 2016.

…

Sig’s Quick Hits

  • Arabian Nights Erhnam Djinn has just hit an all-time high thanks to demand for the Old School MTG format. Star City Games has recently increased their price of NM copies to $69.99, and they only have 2 MP copies in stock with a price tag of $49.99. I’m surprised by two things here. First, the fact that their Near Mint price tag is substantially below TCG Player – this is likely to change. Second, their Moderately Played price is 70% of their Near Mint price. This suggests to me that the demand is indeed from ‘93/’94 players and not collectors, who would generally be willing to pay a much larger premium for NM copies over MP copies.
  • It’s really interesting to see which printings of Birds of Paradise have gone up in price lately. A cursory look through Star City Games’ stock can give us a peek into which editions are most in-demand recently. They are out of stock of Tenth Edition copies ($6.45), NM Revised copies ($6.65), NM Fourth Edition copies ($6.99), NM Ravnica copies ($6.99), and Unlimited copies ($69.99). They also have low stock in most other sets. It would appear that the lack of reprint in Origins didn’t matter – this one-drop is still rising in price.
  • Chaos Orb is almost completely sold out on the internet. Chalk this up to demand from collector’s along with Old School MTG players. Star City Games is completely sold out of the card across each printing, with Unlimited’s price tag currently at $149.99. I fully expect them to increase their prices on all three printings…if they can ever get some back in stock again, that is.
Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Kozilek’s Return

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shrine art

Another Eldrazi Titan has entered the mix.  The one they called “Cosi” finally joins the battle.  What does he bring with him?  A wealth of options.

Ok real talk, since everyone else on MTGprice is probably going to cover the expeditions I’m gonna take some time to talk about some Standard cards.  My column is for the player, by a player.  As I jokingly said during our impromptu podcast (found here) with fellow MTGprice.com writers, Jeremy Aaranson, Travis Allen, and Douglas Johnson, not a lot of MTG Finance people play a ton of Magic.  There is some extra value in owning cards when you play with them.

sphinxofthefinalword crushoftentacles

Bad news blue players.  We probably have 2 bulk mythic rares right here.  Crush of Tentacles looks a lot like an Upheaval but the reality is it’s almost always worse to cast than Ugin.  Until Shadows over Innistrad this is likely to be a bulk rare.  Part the Waterveil sees “some” play and is still barely breaking the bulk bins at $2. I won’t waste too many words because Sphinx of the Final Word does not deserve many words.

nissavoiceofzendikar

Now we’re cooking with gasoline.  I think Nissa might be in an awkward spot because on it’s face value, it’s probably worse than Nissa, Vastwood Seer at the moment.  They are the same mana cost and this Nissa is more difficult to cast.  That being said, I’m pretty sure there will be some Nissa/Gideon deck coming in the fall of 2016 so we will want to look at the summer as the time to pick her up.   As with most Planeswalkers, this card will probably start pre-ordering for too much and be half the price by the next set.

worldbreaker

World Breaker.  It’s simple, elegant, powerful.  This card looks like a literal Giant Spider Eldrazi but it’s really a lot more than that.  There is a high demand for 7+ mana colorless creatures (especially Eldrazi).  Despite the green mana symbol this guy is immune to the same removal that Kozilek himself dodges.  This mini-Ulamog plays a lot like a Pearl Lake Ancient that also plays pretty good defense.  I’m certain there are a lot of Eldrazi ramp decks that are fine trading a land for one of their opponent’s every turn.  All in all I think this guy will be too good to be $3 but probably not good enough to be $10.  Maybe if I get some camera time in Atlanta after the set comes out I can show you how good he will be.

kozileksreturn

You remember how I said 7 mana Eldrazi are a big deal?  The Eldrazi ramp deck really wants to ramp once on 3 and twice on 4 giving you access to 7-8 mana on turn 5.  This card can nicely fit into your 4th turn after a Hedron Archive and then can be “flashed back” to finish up any non-Eldrazi threats your opponents may have.  Being an instant is a big deal because it allows you to deal with some otherwise awkward threats.  This can kill dash creatures like Zurgo and Lightning Berserker and smaller manlands like the new R/W manland.  It’s also an answer to Jace that can also kill Dragonlord Ojutai and Dragonlord Silumgar.  It can also sweep up Thopter tokens that are otherwise particularly difficult for Ugin to kill.  I expect this card to be very popular even after Ugin rotates.  This card could pre-order for as much as $15 and that would be really unfortunate because I think longer term it’s probably a $5-8 card for it’s life in Standard.

chandraflamecaller

Yeah this isn’t Elspeth Sun’s Champion.  While we are more likely to take off the CMC Glasses now on 6+ mana planeswalkers, this one just doesn’t do enough right now to justify playing.  I am, however, a big fan of foils.  This card’s 0 ability has a lot of application in EDH and works great in a host of popular Izzet commander decks (Niv-Mizzet the Firemind is where she shines the most).  I dont think this card has “what it takes” to get it done in standard.  I’m pretty miffed the elementals aren’t even real Spark Elementals.  They don’t have trample.  Over all  I think this is a card you want to avoid for more than $6 or $15 for foils.

kalitastraitorofghet

I’d say traitor-schmaitor but this guy looks like the real deal.  He should be able to single handedly bring Roast back into the fold and propel flying creatures to the front of play.  While the 4 drop spot is pretty hard to get into, I think this guy following a Drana will be an unsual 1-2 punch that will leave Black aggro decks able to pull ahead of removal efficient Red aggro decks.  With the addition of more Zombies and Vampires in Shadows over Innistrad I think this guy has a lot of upside.  We’ll have to wait for preorder pricing to start tricking in but I’m a believer at $10 or less.  Without more spoilers, it’s hard to tell if this guy will be good enough without additional tribal support.

Cards that get better with the Spoilers:

executioner

Oh hey, you remember this bulk mythic?  Well with Kalitas asking you to play more Zombies and Shadows over Innistrad due to bring more competitive Zombies into the fold, this guy might get a lot better.  As I’ve said earlier, there is a lot of competition at the 4 drop slot so maybe he doesn’t quite get there right away but it’s early enough that you can get in him trades or dig him out of bulk boxes in preparation for Shadows over Innistrad.

shrinesanctum

Oh yeah.  Eldrazi is a fringe playable deck (it’s actually bonkers if your local meta game isn’t swarming with Atarka Red) that will survive two rotations.  I find it hard to believe these 2 lands will continue to stay sub $1 as color fixing continues to get worse and colorless cards continue to get better.

The Painful Truth

painfultruths

This card is the real deal.  Showing up in Standard (when your other card draw options are Dig Through Time and Treasure Cruise – Both of which are banned in Modern and Legacy), Modern, and Legacy is a key to long term success.  This card is a buck now and if you ever intend to play black, I can’t imagine not owning a set.

The Modern lands

shocklands

Do you own all of these yet?  What are you waiting for?  I don’t know if this is the year they go up but I can’t imagine they continue to fall from here.  I  might write this again in July with a big “I told you so” but even if I don’t, you don’t lose anything by buying now.  If buying all 4 is too much, you can look at Derek Madlem‘s article describing the minimum number you need to stay competitive.

That’s all Folks

With the culmination of this article, I think we have 1-2 weeks of solid downward pressure on prices and then the bottom will become apparent.  I can’t recommend enough making sure you have purchased all that you need before this lull is over.

Next week (or the week after) I will be interviewing a local player turned card shop owner.  Do you have any questions you’d like to ask a binder grinder that has taken the step into a business owner?  Leave them in the comments below!

Jared Yost, The Gilded Goblin

First Looks at Oath of the Gatewatch

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We’ve slowly been seeing more and more pieces of OGW flow in and they have been very interesting, especially from a financial perspective. Let’s take a look at the spoilers that have been revealed so far and see what possibilities lie in store for us as January approaches.

New Basic Land

First and most importantly, we are now receiving a new basic land (not type, just land – your Tribal Flames are still going to be burning people for only five damage max) – the Wastes.

Screen Shot 2015-12-13 at 1.20.52 PM

This land means a whole, whole lot from a financial perspective. Since this is a basic land, nearly ever Magic player out there is going to want to have some of these, and the only way for them to get them is going to be be in Oath packs, Fat Packs, and other products. Looks like we could be seeing a fat packs fiasco all over again. At least initially.

I’m not trying to be the bringer of doom and gloom here of Wastes’ future price, but what if Wizards starts printing these lands in land packs that are distributed at tournaments along with the rest of the other basic lands? Right now I think that many of us are under the impression that we will only be able to get these through OGW products, but since this is basically the “purple” color that everyone has theorized that Wizards was ultimately going release I think that they are going to heavily support it moving forward so that players aren’t shelling out multiple dollars per copy of basic land that they need for a deck. This could just be wishful thinking on my part, but I’m not sure if I’m going to go out of my way to pick up massive amounts of Wastes for $0.25 or more a piece.

Foils on the other hand are a totally different story. For all the people that want to make fully colorless Commander decks a thing (which they have been in the past, however you couldn’t play any basic lands in the deck which makes it significantly harder to build especially for newer players) foils are going to have a decent premium going forward, and with the different arts for the Wastes I think that the more popular arts will easily maintain their value through the years. I’m not going to be looking to pick up the foils immediately after the set comes out but as soon as I sense that a lull has been reached I’ll be sure to pick up my own copies of foil wastes for the Karn, Silver Golem Commander deck that I run.

Early Expedition Information

Expedition information has slowly been trickling in and we have pictures of Mystic Gate, Forbidden Orchard, and Ancient Tomb as revealed cards.

Screen Shot 2015-12-13 at 1.30.07 PM

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What this tells us is that we’re going to have the filter land cycle, but also that Wizards is throwing in one-off’s of lands that they wanted to include as part of the elusive expedition collectables. I mean, no-one was really clamoring for Forbidden Orchard (even though the art is really, really sweet in the expedition!) but Ancient Tomb is a welcome sight and means that we might get a few more Vintage and Legacy playable expeditions… could we even see a Wasteland spoiler eventually?*(12/14 Edit – Yes, we do have Wasteland! And Strip Mine! see the full reveal here) Is asking for a Rishadan Port, Dark Depths, or Grove of the Burnwillows too much? Probably, though to to keep selling more and more packs I wouldn’t be surprised to see popular Legacy/Commander lands being included as expedition in this set.

In terms of price and collectability, I think we’ll see the same trend in the new expeditions as we did with the Battle for Zendikar ones. BFZ expeditions hit their lows in November and October, a few months after the set was released, but now that Oath is approaching shortly the supply for BFZ is going to dry up and the prices of expeditions will also go up since they won’t be getting cracked in packs as often anymore. I also expect Oath lands to follow this trend, and maybe even accelerate it a little bit since Shadows Over Innistrad is also closely approaching on the horizon.

All in all, expeditions will be collectable for years to come, as they were included specifically in Battle for Zendikar block as a way for Wizards to sell more packs while also providing players with awesome Cube and Commander collectables that the player base has always gravitated towards. First in the form of judge foils, but now that judge foils are getting rarer it seems that special foils like expeditions are going to replace them. Yes, this reminds us of the Secret Rarity of Yu-gi-oh!, but at least here it is only reprints and the cards are not required for Standard or other tournament play.

Continuing Spoilers

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Kozilek, the Great Distortion is the premier card that Wizards gave us showcasing the new Wastes mana. I think they’re just calling it colorless? It will be produced by all spells moving forward and any other ability that taps for colorless mana will produce the diamond symboled mana that is displayed on Wastes. For example, the first ability of Shivan Reef will be able to be tapped for diamond mana.

All in all, it could be an interesting card for Standard since it rewards you for ramping and dumping your hand since when you cast him you can refill back up to seven cards. Having Menace and free counterspells available is also a huge bonus, so at the very least he will be hugely popular in the casual crowds for years to come.

Like Ulamog, initial prices will be high (especially in light of the Wastes release) so wait a bit for prices to die down to pick up your copies.

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While this card is somewhat underwhelming by itself, the Surge mechanic is going to either be extremely dull or entirely broken, similar to Delve. As long as they don’t go crazy with Surge in the set I think it will border on boring rather than format defining. Still, keep an eye out for any interesting Surge cards since they might have a ton of casual appeal for players like to play a ton of 2HG.

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This card has great applications for Standard. There is already a sacrifice deck that exists, and this card will slot very nicely into that shell since it already is a cheap 2/3 with deathtouch for only two mana. I’ll be watching the price, especially foils, since I believe this will be very popular in Commander too since the cmc is sooooooo low for the stats and it is a legend.

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This land… is gonna wreck people in Commander, and nowhere else. I mean, sure it could see Standard play, but I think it is really slow and would take too long to get online. Looks for foils, and wait for the price to drop a bit before picking them up. I think that since this land isn’t legendary, it could fare nicely in Modern and other eternal formats as well since being able to copy instants, sorceries, or creatures is versatile. However, I believe that versatility is better suited to casual formats since the time and mana investment it takes to get this land online is quite steep.

That’s all this week. Let me know what you all are looking out for as OGW approaches.