Casual Fridays

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: Commander 2017 Singles

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I am in love with this round of decks. Sweet, swooning, head-over-heels-and-then-around-again love. I know I’m going to buy at least one deck, and if you wanted to try them all I wouldn’t blame you.

We know the decklists and the values, and frankly, there’s nothing in the decks that compels an immediate buy. Right now, Kess, Dissident Mage is the most valuable card of them all, with Teferi’s Protection goosing the value of the Vampire deck as a close second. Mirari’s Wake is the most expensive card in the Cat deck, a not-that-surprising inclusion given that it’s GW.

Today I want to look at where some of these prices are headed. Right now, we are a week away from getting the decks in hand, and it’s time to look at what singles look spicy.

Before I get into the specific cards, I want to take a moment and say that not all reprinted cards will tank in value. Mirari’s Wake, for instance, has had several printings, though not one as common as this one. Judgment, Commander’s Arsenal, a Pro Tour promo, being a mythic in the first Conspiracy…none of these were common but neither are they rare. Adding to this is that if you buy the Cat deck, this would be one of the last things you give up if you’re going to play the tribal colors. As a result, I don’t think too many copies of this are going to go into circulation.

 

Feline Ferocity

I like picking up Wake in the $7 range, don’t go to $10 unless you’re going to play it. With the original at $15 there’s not a lot of room to grow at that point.

Leonin Arbiter will be a great spec if you can get in under $3, but again, the original is $5. The good news is that it’s a four-of in the assorted Taxes builds in Modern, and with Modern Pro Tours coming back, this might hit a big spike as it turns off fetchlands on camera.

Traverse the Outlands is currently my favorite target from this deck. It’s going for under $3, and it synergizes with a lot of the cards you’d want to play in a ramp deck. I also like that it’ll push people to play more basics.

Vampiric Bloodlust

I have to admit, all of the reprints are cheap enough that I don’t like picking any up for long-term value. This second reprint of Black Market is probably going to keep the value held down for a long while.

Heirloom Blade is in two decks and while it seems tempting, the creature revealed just goes to your hand. There’s better options.

The new Vampire legends are intriguing, but I think people are overrating Mathas, Fiend Seeker. I’m really hoping that people aren’t buying him in anticipation of doing a Leovold on us. Mardu isn’t a popular color combination in Legacy, and getting value from him requires the creature dying in a format where Swords to Plowshares gets a lot of play. Don’t fall for this.

Teferi’s Protection is an amusing card, and yes, it’s a great answer to a lot of things. The token rules are even getting rewritten thanks to this card, and if that means you want to go crazy with Teferi’s Veil, be my guest. I would be shocked if this stays at $15, and I think the $10 range is more likely once the initial wave calms down.

 

Draconic Domination (AKA the deck I am most likely to buy)

The reprinted dragons are all amazing and the sheer number of legends makes Day of Destiny awfully appealing. Go get yourself some Dragon Whelp or Dragon Hatchling so you’ve got more to do in the early turns. I especially love both Dragon cost reducers being included here.

I think this deck has some really intriguing cards for the future. Mirror of the Forebears is kinda lame in this deck, given the number of legends, but it’s exactly the sort of broken thing you want in a lot of tribal decks. Play your awesome card and then copy it for a single mana! It’s at $3 now but I will be looking for this at $2 or less for the long term gains.

Curse of Verbosity is close to my favorite card in all the decks. It’s a fantastic way to draw a target on someone’s head, and while I appreciate the people trying to jam this in Legacy, I just don’t see it happening. It can be had for a buck right now, and that’s too low. This will be at least $3 and more likely $5 in a year, even if it is in two decks. People are going to see how fun it is and want more.

Kindred Discovery is amazeballs and I’m shocked that it’s only in one deck. It seems like such a great fit for Wizards too, but as a result of being the singleton, it’s at $3 now and that price is not going to hold. This is going to at least double by Christmas 2018.

 

Arcane Wizardry

The reprints here aren’t too exciting. This is going to torpedo the prices on Nin, the Pain Artist, and Marchesa, the Black Rose. Those two had been low-priced due to supply, not demand. Yet another round of copies on Chaos Warp. Decree of Pain will now be $3 forever.

The new cards are causing all sorts of hype and I’m very skeptical. Mairsil, the Pretender is just right when $7-$10. Kess, Dissident Mage is possibly Legacy playable, but four mana is a lot in that format. People don’t run more than 2-3 of Jace, the Mind Sculptor, and so Kess is going to have to get played and immediately flash back a Gitaxian Probe for value. Will some people try her as a one-of? Sure, but I think Leovold’s specter is pushing her price.

I’m terrified of Galecaster Colossus, but reassured that it’s nonlands only. I think Kindred Dominance is perfect at $3 for a long, long time. It’s only good in black tribal decks, so don’t go crazy.

Finally, the best land in a long time: Path of Ancestry. Thank goodness it’s in all four, because this is a card that tribal decks are hungry for. Scry 1 is amazingly good when you can do it turn after turn, and it’s preselling in the $3 range. I don’t think it stays there for long, and I advocate getting all you can under $5. There are just too many decks that want this card, and spare copies won’t stay available for long. Once Magic players and their money move on to Ixalan in a couple of weeks (seriously, preview season in early September) it seems unlikely that stores are going to crack a lot of inventory for singles.

Bonus card: Stranglehold has dipped to the $10 range after being reprinted in Commander Anthology. This is a card that a lot more decks should be playing, frankly, and I don’t know why Wizards doesn’t want to reprint such an effective card. If you need it, get it while it’s cheap and you can shut down everyone else at the table. It’s already in 3000 EDHREC decks, and I enjoy this card immensely too.

 

Cliff is swinging the pendulum back towards Commander, given the new and exciting cards they keep printing for the format, but any new format or odd way to play will always get his attention. Read his articles every Friday here or hit him up on Twitter @WordOfCommander.

Rachel Agnes, The Collector

Delving Deeper: Getting into Older Formats Part 1

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Do you remember when you first started playing Magic? I know I do. It was at a friend’s house I watched for a few minutes as they played Standard against each other and then they asked me to take a seat and try myself. I was handed a deck with Stoneforge Mystic, Batterskull, and Jace, the Mindsculptor in it. I was instantly hooked and here I am today, writing articles and totally immersed in all forms of Magic: the Gathering.

Despite the highly competitive nature of the decks, Standard was the format I was introduced in. I would wager that with the number of events as well as the Pro Tour featuring it primarily, most player’s first forays into Magic also involve Standard. However, Standard just makes up one portion of the competitive scene of this vast game. There are dozens of fan-made and casual formats that exist. If you look around the world and on Magic Online you will find a plethora of competitive formats to dabble into.

“Alright, cool. I have been playing Magic at FNM and locally with friends for about a year now. I always hear about other formats like ‘Modern’ and ‘Legacy.’ I want to check that out, and learn more about other ways to enjoy this awesome game. Let’s check out some decks…”

Ok, so by this point many players are immediately turned off at this thought. Spending _____ on a card game sounds ridiculous right? Well to those who are just looking to Magic as the most casual of a hobby, I agree, the prices of these decks are astronomical and should rightfully push some away.

The price of top tier decks in formats like Vintage, Legacy, and even Modern are staggering! It isn’t easy for most folks to just jump right in and build a top tier deck on the fly. Forget about it if you change decks or want to build a gauntlet. I will never sugar-coat the financial struggle there is to getting involved in Magic’s older formats. Playing this game competitively is extremely expensive and I don’t want to underplay that.

So then what is the point of writing this? I am here to tell you that it is possible to accomplish this and show you how to do it. In this two-part article series, first, I will give general advice on picking out the right path to take. I will ask key questions that every player must ask themselves before undertaking this journey. The second article will discuss specifics on how to acquire expensive cards and help you reach the end goal. The advice I give here may not be for everyone, as each person’s situation and experiences are unique, but I will do my best to give the best advice regardless.

Before embarking on this quest, you must first ask yourself a few questions. These are general questions that will act as the knowledge used to form your action plan.

  1. What do I want to get out of Magic?

Another way to look at this question is what do you want Magic to be for you? If you want to play older formats but do so more casually then you are in luck. The internet is going to be your best resource for discovering new strategies and fun combos that can be built on a budget. Legacy, Modern, and Commander aren’t as daunting when you can use budget card choices, after all.

However, many players want to play competitively. Whether they plan to play in weekly/monthly events at their local LGS or travel to a Grand Prix or large event, if the goal is winning, things certainly get more expensive.

There are hundreds of high-level Standard events happening across the country every weekend. If you want to win at those events, you will need $200-$300 to purchase one of the Tier 1 Standard decks. There is a plethora of coverage and articles all over the internet to read and observe to elevate your Standard game. Keep up to date, study tournament results, and practice. That’s about all there is to Standard.

So what happens when you want to do the same with Modern? If we look at recent top performing decks, while there may be some variance in prices, most decks are going to cost from $700-$1500. That is a LOT of money to shell out and a significant step up from the price of a Standard deck.

Once you’ve determined the degree to which you want to play Magic, the next logical step becomes…

  1. What deck should I play?

Everyone’s budget is different, but for simplicity’s sake, let’s just assume that the average person can purchase one top tier modern deck (even if not all at once) and that replacing/changing decks often is not feasible. Under this fair assumption, selecting the right deck is crucial. Choosing a sub-optimal deck that doesn’t successfully align with your answer to question #1 can spell disaster for a player working on a limited budget. Usually it will mean reselling your cards to a store, where you will at best recover 50% of your investment or selling online which can be risky and time consuming. Neither option here is desirable, so choosing your deck correctly the first time is important.

A common pitfall I see many players fall into involves purchasing/trading for a deck that they will outgrow. Let’s pick on Legacy for this example. When I see players who are interested in Legacy, if their goal is to be competitive and to win events, I will do my best to steer them away from introductory or tier 2 decks. Decks like Burn, Dredge, Merfolk, and Eldrazi are all capable of winning games, but they lack the long-term staying and winning power of top performing decks in Legacy. In other words, there are significantly more instances of other decks winning matches and events than these decks winning.

Again, I would like to emphasize that there is nothing wrong with these types of decks. They are just not decks I would recommend to players who answered question #1 with anything along the lines of “wanting to win events” or “playing top tier decks to improve as a player.”

Many players choose to play decks like Burn or Dredge in Legacy due to monetary concern. Other decks play Dual lands and various expensive staples. So naturally it follows that decks without Wasteland, Force of Will, and Dual lands seem like an excellent budget alternative. Don’t be fooled, though. Lower power decks in Legacy ARE alternatives, just not tournament winning alternatives for those who wish to win the most matches. In part 2 of this article series I will go over the best ways to invest and pick up cards to build your way into more expensive formats like Legacy and Vintage.

So, to reiterate my point, if you are looking to enter an older format competitively (where winning is the primary goal), you should aim to purchase/trade for a top tier deck. This may involve acquiring dual lands or other expensive format staples that you would have otherwise wished you could have avoided. Do not buy into a deck just because it is an excellent entry-level deck for the format, as you will likely outgrow it and lose money on turning around and selling it.

To sum up this article (which will be two parts total):

  1. Ask yourself what you want out of Magic.
  2. Pick what deck you should play.
  3. If you want to be competitive, do not settle for something less.
  4. Don’t buy into a “budget” or introductory deck to a format.

These questions and my advice may seem somewhat intangible, but stick with me for the next article where I put it all to practical use.

Dabbling into older MTG formats is more of a journey than a case of instant gratification. If you can afford the top tier deck you want just like that, excellent. You are luckier than most. If you don’t need a top tier deck to have fun with and enjoy the format, that is also excellent. Your wallet will thank you. One of the most beautiful parts about Magic is that it has so many ways to involve and include individuals of various backgrounds. No matter what type of player you are, or the extent of your budget, there is a format in Magic for you. Go out there and experience it!

Rachel Agnes is a VSL Competitor, Phyrexian Princess, Collector of all things shiny and a Cube, Vintage, Legacy, and EDH enthusiast. 
Catch on Twitch and Twitter via Baetog_.

Jason Alt

Unlocked Pro Trader: Your Kess is as Good as Mine

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We have EDHREC data, finally!

People are building their decks, they’re putting them online to be scraped and they’re being scraped.

 

Having that sweet, sweet data means I don’t have to pull an article topic out of my ass this week and it also means that we’re going to make. Every. Money. Immediately.

The Wizards cards all seem like they are doing nutty things, as predicted. Inalla, Archmage Ritualist is causing people to take a long, hard look at Wanderwine Prophets, for example.

This was honestly the largest pic of this card I could find that didn’t look like it was photographed with the Camera from a Game Boy Color. If I had a dollar for every pixel on the picture on MythicSpoiler.com I’d have enough money to sleeve my copy of Inalla when I get it. Hopefully you can read that Eminence ability and hopefully you can figure out that copying Wanderwine Prophets means you always have a Merfolk to sac because the token Champions the original Merfolk, blah blah blah. Taking infinite turns is always a good thing. What’s Wanderwine Prophets look like right now?

There are still copies under $1 but I don’t expect them to last long. You’re basically not getting it on the ground floor at this point unless you’re reading Twitter early in the day or this article the minute it’s published. Should you chase this? If you buy at $3 or $5 it will still be fine when the card hits $10, right?

Let’s see if we can remember whether there was another blue creature that gave you infinite turns with a new Commander and look at the price trajectory of that card.

Remember us? The neato interaction between Ezuri and Sage was enough for the price of Sage of Hours to skyrocket from $2 to $3, a price it didn’t manage to maintain. Soooooo go to town and buy those Wanderwine Prophets so you have a combo that’s more confusing and worse than this one since you have to manage to deal them damage with a creature for it to work. I’m going to stay pat, frankly. I’m sure everyone will make Prophets a $30 card just to make me look like an idiot. This is a time when Stone Calendar is $25 so I guess what do I know about MTG Finance? I guess nothing. Buy those Martyr’s Cry while they’re hot, I guess. Is Inalla a a better commander than Ezuri? Yes, probably. But the combo is worse and there is still a non-zero chance Prophets gets blown out by a reprinting in Monkeys versus Merfolk or whichever deck is coming out soon. Donald Trump is President, I saw Zima at a grocery store the other day and Sigil Tracer is a $4 card, now. Nothing has to make sense anymore. Go buy Wanderwine Prophets, I guess.

Kess is the card I wanted to talk about today and with limited EDHREC data, I’m not able to really talk about which cards are in a high percentage of decks played. However, if they’re registering at all, that means there is at least a degree of synergy between Kess and that card which makes it worth mentioning. Early adopters aren’t usually super wrong about cards and even if they are, the cards they register are seen by people who build decks subsequently which means they are more likely to get included than cards that are just in a vacuum and take some work for someone to find. That’s not right or wrong, it’s just how it is in the internet age. Let’s look at what Kess players are registering so far and see if anything emerges as a good target.

River Kelpie

Here’s a card that’s growing in price by quite a bit lately. This isn’t that great a reprint target, frankly given its limited applicability (As opposed to Limited applicability. Good luck finding enough people who want to pay $60 a person to draft Shadowmoor) and set-specific keyword ability. You can reprint Persist cards, but Persist cards that are only good if you have Flashback spells? Good luck. Despite clunky ability synergy, this card is a shoo-in in Kess decks and I expect the new attention it gets to put a little more pressure on the price. Remember, it doesn’t need to go up THAT much for you to make some money. It can stay around $3 and if you snag all the $ copies that are out there, loose, you can make money trading them out at $3 or outing them at retail. If the price doesn’t move but the new attention causes the copies below market price to dry up, we still did fine. That’s not a great finance plan but it’s a worst case scenario I can live with. I expect Kelpie to get a bump and I don’t expect a reprint. If you agree with both of those things, be a buddy and snag those last 3 copies on Troll and Toad.

Gamble

No Gamble, no future, I always say (I never say that). Gamble is a card that is perfect for Kess decks. Sometimes you want to play this with an empty hand, making it an Emtomb for spells, but even if you discard the “wrong” card with a full grip, you can usually end up having it be a spell you can play. Getting another crack at your Gamble and tutoring for a spell you can play once or twice means Kess decks and Gamble go together like anime wall scrolls and virginity. When there are more data points to sift through, I actually see the synergy percentage increasing. Most decks that run Gamble are decks that use it as a “better than nothing” tutor because they’re mostly red, but the card is insanely good in a Kess deck and people are going to very quickly figure that out. At its current price, it’s a little above its floor but since Eternal Masters didn’t give us that many copies in the grand scheme of things, the price drop was largely predicated on a very modest demand for the very limited number of Saga copies being satiated very easily. Its current price can’t satisfy increased demand and I think now’s a great time to buy what could easily end up $10 or $12 very soon. This card’s exactly what I was hoping to find when I started probing these lists.

Beacon of Unrest

Beacon has been pretty stable for the last few months and I think while Commander 2016 gave us a lot of copies, what black EDH doesn’t want to run it? EDHREC has it listed in nearly 7,000 decks currently and at a little over a buck, this seems like a great candidate for “Going way up in price as people start to pay attention to it”. The best part about Beacons is if they get countered, discarded, pitched to gamble, pitched to… Sickening Shoal? Look, if they end up in the yard, you can play them with Kess then shuffle them back into the deck since Kess isn’t true flashback but rather says if the card would go to the graveyard, exile it, which means the replacement effect on the Beacon precedes that. I’m not a judge but I’m pretty sure that’s how that works. If not, ummm, at least Beacon lets you get a free shuffle, so that’s cool. Check the comments section where some nerd will confirm how Beacons work with Kess.

This card is basically at its floor. Commander 2017 coming out means it’s time to celebrate the one year anniversary of this latest Beacon reprinting and I want to celebrate by snagging the sexy new copies with the foil dot and the good art. I bet all that purple looks great in foil. This gets reprinted in a lot of supplementary product but it recovered before and it will recover again.

The Locust God Stuff

Kess is great because I like the ability, it could impact Legacy or Vintage (could, I didn’t originate that thought, so if you’re planning to write “ZOMG LURN HOW TO PLAY VINTIGE” instead use that energy to cram impulses like that deep down until you unleash them on the umpire at your kid’s Tee Ball game like the rest of us) and because it makes you able to play your Locust God deck with a new commander and black cards. You won’t port the whole deck over and I still recommend building and playing a The Locust God deck with wheels and everything separately, but a lot of the same cards including the Locust God itself go nicely in Kess. Let those Tolarian Winds blow – you just doubled your hand size. Don’t give your opponents the benefit of a wheel so keep those Puzzle Boxes in their… larger box? What do you store a Puzzle Box in? What do I look like, pinhead? Keep them in whatever you keep them in because you don’t want them wheeling, just you. As long as they aren’t removing your yard from the game, a wheel means you have access to a grip full of new hotness plus you can play spells from the grave with flashback like a boss.

I think there’s enough money to be made here. I might even talk about Innala next week- who knows? I don’t! A lot can happen between now and then, so in the mean time, read my tweets, listen to my podcasts and don’t do anything I wouldn’t do. Until next time!

Watchtower

UNLOCKED: The Watchtower 8/14/17

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By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.

Since we last spoke there were four(!) Modern events; two Grand Prix, an SCG Open, and an SCG Classic, as well as the full Commander 2017 spoiler. Such action! Such excitement!

I’m touched on a card today that jumped out at me across all four Modern events, although I’m sure if you took the time to dig closely  you could find other appealing targets. Modern is a diverse and rich format right now, which is obviously excellent for players. It’s a little stickier for us, as there’s nothing dominating — and thus earning an outsized price tag — but it does keep the doors open to unknown decks spiking an event and spiking a price.

Meanwhile the Commander set this year is reasonably linear, which makes finding the specs much easier, and there are several key omissions. My favorite is Cryptic Gateway, which has no reason not to find a home in every single tribal deck ever built, and is especially powerful with the new Mirri. Wizards has also sparked a lot of interest in the financial sector, but overall, all four are appealing to many players, and there’s no arguing that C17 is one of the best-designed sets we’ve seen from Wizards in awhile.

Champion of the Parish

Price Today: $3
Possible Price: $12

Both a Grand Prix and the (admittedly smaller) SCG Classic both found themselves with a humans in deck in their top eight, and each contained a playset of Champion. They weren’t even the same deck, as one featured the Knight of the Reliquary/Retreat to Coralhelm combo, and the other one eschewed it for a more direct “I’m going to shove creatures down your throat until one of us is dead” strategy.

Many useful creatures in Modern happen to be humans. Thalia, Noble Hierarch, Eternal Witness, and Knight of the Reliquary are all the same tribe, and they’re all cards you’re happy to play regardless of that vector. Once you’ve already got a pile of humans, it’s not a leap to add in one or two humans-matter cards to turn up the pressure. Champion of the Parish is one of the best of the bunch in that regards, with a copy on turn one representing a serious threat through the entire game. It rapidly grows out of Lightning Bolt range, and while it’s always vulnerable to Fatal Push and Path to Exile, that’s hardly enough of a reason to not bother at all.

At the moment you can find copies in the $3 range. There’s a fair bit, but it’s been a long time since it was printed, and humans seem to be ever so slowly growing in popularity in the format. Bant Knightfall continues to put up results every now and then, and the latest printing of Thalia seems to have encouraged more tribal strategies as well. So long as Humans continues to see success on the larger stage, I’d expect the price on Champion to begin moving north.

It’s worth pointing out that foil copies are also appealing, with seemingly far less supply and an attractive multiplier.


Riptide Director

Price Today: $.75
Possible Price: $8

Patron Wizard may have been the buy-out target after last week’s Commander 2017 lists were released in full, but Riptide Director is the card I’m more interested in. When there’s a new commander that just straight up domes people for seven when you tap a bunch of wizards, there’s clearly an existing appeal to put as many of them into play as possible. Director is going to make sure you keep the fuel up by just being a Concentrate – or easily better – every turn.

What’s especially appealing about Riptide Director is that it doesn’t feel like people have quite caught on yet. I’m sort of shocked prices are still below $1, actually. After all, there are two banner “wizards matter” cards – Patron, and Director. Patron Wizard’s market price is $10, Director’s is $.89.

Continued insistence on my part isn’t going to help much, so I’ll wrap it up. Four mana, draw a bunch of cards, do it every turn, $.75. Where’s the hesitation here?


Krosan Drover (Foil)

Price Today: $.5
Possible Price: $8

A subset of dragon support cards exist that are in virtually every dragon deck. Dragonspeaker Shaman. Dragonlord’s Servant. Crucible of Fire. There is, however, one that seems to have gone mostly unnoticed. I’m speaking of Krosan Drover.

Even to me this is an unknown card. I’m sure I’ve seen it before — like, laid eyes upon a piece of cardboard with this printed on it — but I didn’t at all remember that it exists. Which is surprising, because I played a lot of Magic during the Onslaught block. It makes basically all your dragons cost two less, which is a huge boon with such expensive creatures, and makes it a lot easier to pump out two in a turn.

Nonfoil copies are a trap; there are far too many out there, and far too many that could be added if there were reason. Foils from this block are increasingly rare though, and these are no different. What’s especially appealing here is that even if they are reprinted (and we have no reason to believe they would be, especially given that they list a specific Magic location), the old border foils will retain their appeal. With a price tag of a whopping $.50 per copy, if you can score several at a time they strike me as particularly appealing.

Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

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